31 Dec 2012

Structure of Indexes still looks like a B wave of C to me.  Still looking for a lower price.
60min SPX stoch. has found its way back to overbought again.  If this is a reset then expect the move down in the new year again.

28 Dec 2012

We had our new low today for the SPX and gives us a nice weekly Stoch cross down with a print.  This is bearish and we can look for a rally next week to load up on our short position.  The 60min Stoch. has diverged with price and we should look for a reset to overbought or above the 50 mark.  On a micro level we can count 3 wave up from yesterdays low and 3 waves down to todays low.  Therefore it is safe to say that we are in a corrective pattern and we should expect a rally next week to complete an ABC at the least.

The only time that the correction stop is if we continue lower next week which would mean we are done with a 4th wave of an EW pattern and continuing with the 5th wave that would have started today.

SPX:

Daily -Bearish Dec 26 - Last Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23
Weekly - Bearish Dec 14 - Last Bullish Nov 30 - Last Bearish Nov 9 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Dec 26 - Last Bullish Nov 28 - Last Bearish Nov 27 - Last Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10
Weekly - Bearish Oct 26 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Dec 4 - Last Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bearish Dec 21 - Last Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Nov 30 - Last Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1
Weekly - Bearish Dec 7 - Last Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

27 Dec 2012

The SPX managed to move down to its lower Bollinger band but it did not touch it or cross it.  Although we have a reversal candle today on the daily chart we could still follow through tomorrow if this Fiscal Cliff issue does not get resolved before the weekend.  Our 15min Stoch. has pushed up to overbought really quick and this could be a clue that a down-turn tomorrow is at hand.  Also to note that our Hourly chart for the ES futures is at overbought as I type this.

Daily Stoch. is still pointing bearish with a MACD crossover to the downside, and we could close the WEEK on a bearish position if we drop down again tomorrow to end the week.

26 Dec 2012

Happy Boxing day for people like me who lives in Canada.  Unfortunately I did not buy anything worth buying.  Malls all over seems mild mannered compared to past boxing day events.  Should we be worried.  In Canada YES! definitely.  The charts the TSX have been charting is looking much uglier than the US index, and its not because the US is far better than we are.  We just can't read the US charts clearly enough.

But I would like to show today what I have been seeing the past few months and since its the End of the Year, it is just fitting to share my thoughts on where we could see ourselves in the next few months or years.  I don't claim to be a fortune teller but in order to look forward one must look back at what has happened.  The chart is pretty straight forward though and should not take a rocket scientist to figure it out.  I did not bother to show the divergence between the macd and the price since 2000, but what is important is the pattern that is showing itself then and now.

 

 



Both Charts are the same..  I was just playing around with MSPaint... LOL.

24 Dec 2012

SPX:

Daily -Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23
Weekly - Bearish Dec 14 - Last Bullish Nov 30 - Last Bearish Nov 9 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bullish Nov 28 - Last Bearish Nov 27 - Last Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10
Weekly - Bearish Oct 26 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Dec 4 - Last Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bearish Dec 21 - Last Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Nov 30 - Last Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1
Weekly - Bearish Dec 7 - Last Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

21 Dec 2012

After the Drop today on the Cash SPX we have moved sideways. This has setup for a potential diagonal or wedge with a continuation lower before we rally.

Happy Holidays!!!

20 Dec 2012

Happy Apocalypse Eve.  Seems we are starting the day tomorrow in turmoil as ES dropped some 40pts after a Fiscal Cliff agreement could not be brought forward.  Stochastics for 60min chart does not look at all oversold even with the drop.  The bears are looking forward to tomorrow.

19 Dec 2012

Side to wedge shape pattern today.  It seems we have not turned around yet but our 60min indicators are bearish indeed.  But for now Im still looking for a move higher then reversal. Earliest would be tomorrow.  The move today was not impulsive enough to consider a trend change.

18 Dec 2012

The 60min Stoch. managed to stay overbought throughout the day continuing from yesterday.  The SPX made a new high today.  But as the indicator shows, we are overbought so we should see a pull back of some sort the next few days.

17 Dec 2012

Market rallied impulsively today.  Much stronger than we had been expecting, but so far we have a possible ABC up that is consistent with a corrective wave.  We will see soon enough if our labels are correct. As we stand we have a one day 60min overbought move that is quite quick.  We are expecting a move down soon and we should prepare for the worst this time around if not at least be ready for a move down regardless of how severe or how small it is.

14 Dec 2012

We had a nice continuation today and have made a 5 wave pattern down.  Therefore next week we should look for a zigzag formation in 3 waves before continuing lower. The SPX daily chart shows the Stochastics finally exiting its overbought position.  Our 60min Stochastics though is oversold already and that's why I speculate the rally next week should start immediately if not at least in the morning we would extend the lows before turning.  This is definitely great for the Bears and the weekly looks even better with all or most Indexes forming reversal candles.  All we need for the weekly is the Stochastics to cross back down to confirm the week - months worth of down trend to happen.

SPX:

Daily -Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23
Weekly - Bearish Dec 14 - Last Bullish Nov 30 - Last Bearish Nov 9 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Nov 27 - Last Bullish Nov 23 - Last Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10
Weekly - Bearish Oct 26 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bullish Nov 8 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1
Weekly - Bearish Dec 7 - Last Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

13 Dec 2012

Continued down-trend from yesterday top.  So far we have 3 waves down and for this to sustain a bearish outlook we must see a 5 wave push down with a 3 wave rally.  Lets stay with that expectations as our Stochastics for our Daily SPX charts point in that direction.

12 Dec 2012

We have a nice reversal today and can call this a top of some sort.  The next few days will depend on the Stoch. reaction and we should be looking at days to weeks of down trend in the markets. Reversal candles and divergences are evident of that today.

11 Dec 2012

Markets might have put in a top today on a Daily level.  There is still a chance for a peak tomorrow, but the FED cant stop the market from moving down.  When we see how the indicators behave on this move down to see if its a correction or a continued move down from October.

The reason for calling a top here is that we have managed to touch the upper Bollinger Band for the Dow Jones, but not the SPX.  So we will have to see if the SPX can catch up somehow tomorrow.

10 Dec 2012

Markets seemed weak today.  We failed to make a new high on the SPX and put it a doji on the daily bar.  It has sat under the 75MA for 2 consecutive days now and the longer it sits there the more chance it has of reversing.  Although we don't have a divergence I would allow for that possibility with a chance for a turn tomorrow to the downside.

7 Dec 2012

We got our move up today and very swift.  Unfortunately we did not get our reversal daily candle. But not to worry as we have a corrective pattern from todays 11am low from SPX.  We also retraced above a FIB ratio of 61.8% at 76.4% which is pretty deep and we can consider it a wave B or wave 2.  A diagonal 5th wave for a C wave cannot be ruled out.  But I am expecting a pull back next week as we have been overbought for quite some time now.

The chart below is just a possible route the price might take over the next few days if our wave count is right.  Either way an overbought situation (daily) needs to be relieved before any resumption higher.

6 Dec 2012

Movement today continued its run higher and SPX time frames and respective Stochastics are all in the overbought range.  A push up is what we expect for tomorrow to finally end the uptrend and push down hopefully before EOD and EOW.  This should produce a nice reversal candle and a nice divergence to signal a down-trend that should last a few weeks or maybe even start its plunge phase.  EW'rs are looking for a move lower in an impulsive manner (wave 3).  What I know is that on a daily basis, we are at overbought and should turn down.  The weekly SPX also shows sign of weakness as a separate indicator that I have says its still bearish.

NOTE: The Daily trend to this date has lasted 15 days.  That's half a month or 2 weeks worth of trend.  Knowing your trend can surely ease the process of trading.  As I have said before when the daily starts its trend it will last days to weeks.

5 Dec 2012

Markets rallied which we wanted or expected based on our Stoch.  We have finally got an alignment on our Daily, 60min, 15min charts.  They are all in overbought but we should still look for a bit more of a move up before we turn down.  This should allow for daily Stoch to diverge.

4 Dec 2012

Markets failed to rally today and most of the Stochastic indicators are not in sync with each other.  Therefore we should just stand back and let it clear up for tomorrow.  Although I do have a scenario in mind.

Option 1:  Tomorrows overbought 15min SPX should relieve it self by pushing down maybe to surpass todays low which will give a divergence to price and indicator.  This should help push the oversold 60min Stochastics up finally and eventually join the SPX daily at overbought.  Once this is achieved a clue will lie in the price breaking the Dec. 3 high or settling below it with a 3 wave EW pattern visible.

Option 2: Rally tomorrow to make 3 wave move to finish off the 2nd wave which would keep 15 at overbought yet push the 60min to the overbought direction. By this time the Daily would be ready to turn down bearish.

Our weekly trend is up but using our daily as our main trend at overbought and turning down.  We should expect any move up to be temporary and a downward trend to be our primary move which should resolve the weekly back to the downside.

3 Dec 2012

Markets managed to retrace the bullishness the past few trading sessions.  We do have a 60min oversold condition for the SPX and we can assume its the same for most indexes as well.  So we will be looking for a more push up since the daily charts stochastics is still in overbought.  Note that we have made a cross down on the SPX daily Stoch. and can continue lower.  Therefore do not attempt to play any long side just yet.

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