Thursday, 31 January 2013
31 Jan 2013
The stochastics for the CPCE continued its move down and has not turned up. In the meantime the SPX 60min chart looks to want to bottom as soon as it can.
There is another chart that comes reliable at times where trends just keep pushing higher while momentum weakens. So far this chart has been forming the longest out of the previous divergences. So this will be a good opportunity for profiting on the short side or just stay out altogether until the dust clears.
Wednesday, 30 January 2013
BEWARE!!!
I have attached a chart of the CPCE Inverse, and as you can see at the bottom of this daily chart, we have a stoch. that is down trending while the SPX made higher highs. What I am warning here is that we should be looking for this to cross up since its near the bottom. Although it happens, it is very rare that the Stoch. stays at overbought / oversold for a long period of time. The only time was in May 2012 which brought down the SPX to its June LOW.
I am not saying we wont go lower, but we could just fake out the short traders and head for one final push higher. This type of move is what I would consider a reset, but I would only go long if this Stoch. does cross up.
I am not saying we wont go lower, but we could just fake out the short traders and head for one final push higher. This type of move is what I would consider a reset, but I would only go long if this Stoch. does cross up.
30 Jan 2013
We are looking good for a turn down but still cautious. any short position should be played on a 60min chart in the case that the daily stoch. still wants to move higher and diverge some more.
Tuesday, 29 January 2013
29 Jan 2013
after the plateau from yesterdays session, we moved up again continuing this inching up rally. Our 60min stoch has crossed down but still in the overbought position. With the Daily still in Bullish position we must still give some for bullish case. Once we have had the daily stoch. come out of its overbought range we can call for a trend reversal. A small divergence has occurred in the SPX daily chart but it could erase it if it continues higher tomorrow. We will watch for a reversal before we go short.
We have a weekly reversal in some indexes most notably:
$CDW down
$FTSE down
$KOSPI down
$NIKK down
$NYA200r - NYSE percent of stocks above 200Day MA. down
$SOX down
$TSX down
$VIX up
Anyone trading these indexes should watch for an end of the week print to confirm that it has crossed down or up.
We have a weekly reversal in some indexes most notably:
$CDW down
$FTSE down
$KOSPI down
$NIKK down
$NYA200r - NYSE percent of stocks above 200Day MA. down
$SOX down
$TSX down
$VIX up
Anyone trading these indexes should watch for an end of the week print to confirm that it has crossed down or up.
Monday, 28 January 2013
28 Jan 2013
We are at overbought levels on a Daily time frame and although we are seeing a cross down we should look for a cross below the 80 line on our Stoch to confirm at the least that the trend has changed on a daily level. So for now we are still bullish. Be aware that these types of rise is ever increasing with weaker and weaker signals therefore be cautious for a rapid move to the downside. Its not a bad idea to take some off the table.
Friday, 25 January 2013
25 Jan 2013
Daily Stoch. for the SPX is playing out perfectly. Staying overbought means we are bullish... We have or would have made good money on this long by staying with this sentiment only to sell if we see a cross down. That said, we are approaching month end and we have been overbought for almost that long. Caution needs to be practiced here and if you have profit, then you should start protecting them.
Thursday, 24 January 2013
24 Jan 2013
Momentum has travelled much faster than price in the SPX 60min. This suggests that a reset will happen. Once the Stochastics crosses up another wave higher should take place for the SPX. Meantime the daily chart is still bullish so uptrend is still intact. We would need for daily stoch. to move out of the overbought range to call a bear trend in place.
Wednesday, 23 January 2013
23 Jan 2013
Markets sluggish again managing only a few points up. AAPL reports tonight so I guess they might be waiting for this news? We are still overbought and the longer we are overbought the more caution has to be taken.
Tuesday, 22 January 2013
22 Jan 2013
SPX - Fib ratio shows A = C at 1506 range EW. Gann Wheel 360degree 1493 range as per Chartrambler.
SPX daily Stoch. still overbought still bullish
SPX 60min Stoch. back to overbought and needs to reset for daily chart to move higher unless it starts to finally push the daily stoch. down.
SPX daily Stoch. still overbought still bullish
SPX 60min Stoch. back to overbought and needs to reset for daily chart to move higher unless it starts to finally push the daily stoch. down.
Saturday, 19 January 2013
MY PRECIOUSSS...
Seems there are many who are bullish on Gold and Silver, and a few who are bearish on it. Let us take a look at a more logical and simpler way of looking at it.
We will use our Weekly chart as our main trend, and use our Daily chart as our trade momentum. For those trying to understand this theory please visit my past "POST".
We can see that our weekly trend is up therefore we should only trade the trend. The reason is any counter trend move like corrections will not have enough move in price. It is better to have both indicators going in the same direction.
If you are looking to trade on the long side it is better for your daily to either turn down and start at its oversold position (Bottom) or to enter a small position here in case that it keeps its overbought sentiments. We also have to watch to make sure that the Weekly does not turn back down "if" the Daily stoch. starts to move down. Remember that they both affect each other and Daily acts like engine on a train where it goes so does the Weekly.
NOTE: This is KEY on trading the STOCH. Notice that in any trends when it hits the overbought oversold condition. You are more likely to see a quick turn around if its counter trending and stays overbought /oversold when its with the trend. Take a look at the Aug to Oct 2012 UP TREND. Notice the oversold condition that lasted almost a month and a half. Do not think just because its overbought or oversold that it will turn the other way. Just like in November or 2012 when the Weekly trend was down we saw a daily peak at overbought that was quite short. A good reversal indictor also can be seen when price and stochastics diverge.
We will use our Weekly chart as our main trend, and use our Daily chart as our trade momentum. For those trying to understand this theory please visit my past "POST".
We can see that our weekly trend is up therefore we should only trade the trend. The reason is any counter trend move like corrections will not have enough move in price. It is better to have both indicators going in the same direction.
NOTE: This is KEY on trading the STOCH. Notice that in any trends when it hits the overbought oversold condition. You are more likely to see a quick turn around if its counter trending and stays overbought /oversold when its with the trend. Take a look at the Aug to Oct 2012 UP TREND. Notice the oversold condition that lasted almost a month and a half. Do not think just because its overbought or oversold that it will turn the other way. Just like in November or 2012 when the Weekly trend was down we saw a daily peak at overbought that was quite short. A good reversal indictor also can be seen when price and stochastics diverge.
Friday, 18 January 2013
18 Jan 2013
Down then up.. and our 60min followed the same format again, and although it didn't come back down to the oversold range it crossed up signalling a move higher.
Our daily trend is still in overbought therefore we are still in an uptrend. Always keep that trend in mind when trading these smaller time frames. Try not to trade counter to trend. If you do then it should be for short term only.
GANN day
Seems we have a date today that came up on Ganns wheel based on a Start date set on June 4th 2012 Low. The date actually falls on the 19th so I would say it give it today to Monday as possible high or some sort of a turning point.
Not to mention that our stochastics is in overbought... So lets watch that movement.
Thursday, 17 January 2013
17 Jan 2013
Still looking for a relief for an overbought Daily chart for the SPX. Seems momentum is weakening as prices just slug its way up.
Wednesday, 16 January 2013
16 Jan 213
Our 60min stochastics moved in the direction as planned and since we are in overbought we could turn around anytime. The reason I raise this scenario also is that we are forming a wedge here that could be an ending diagonal triangle that could start the process downwards. The severity will depend on the overbought Daily to come out of its range.
Tuesday, 15 January 2013
15 Jan 2013
We just keep on inching higher but we already know what the outcome is. Was this the minimum high needed for a wave 2 or will this pop higher to surpass the Sept. 2012 high to give us 5th wave of a bigger degree ABC stretching back from our 09 low.
Whatever the outcome is, our 60min SPX stoch. has pointed up for more upside move while our Daily stoch. has stayed overbought. So we should still stay long. But at this point we need to keep in mind that a turn might be near and we should start minimizing our risk once we see a weakness in the 60min timeframe.
Whatever the outcome is, our 60min SPX stoch. has pointed up for more upside move while our Daily stoch. has stayed overbought. So we should still stay long. But at this point we need to keep in mind that a turn might be near and we should start minimizing our risk once we see a weakness in the 60min timeframe.
Monday, 14 January 2013
14 Jan 2013
Markets have been shrugging off the Debt Ceiling issue and its a matter of time until it wakes up to the severity of it. We had a down move today but our 60min stoch. did not make much of an impression to the daily chart. As it stands we are still in a upward bias. The SPX needs to make a decision as to whether it wants to make or break that high made in Sept of 2012. Even if we don't it just makes it the more bearish. An exhaustion is what I am looking at here and patience is key before a short can be made.
Sunday, 13 January 2013
A SIMPLE CASE OF STOCHASTICS part 2
Keeping things simple in my mind always kept things clear, and why wouldn't it work in anything including trading the market. I never stop looking for other ways to improve on my trading or analysis of the market but when the markets open I keep it very simple.
My uncle used to be the governor of stock exchange back in Asia, and I had proposed to him that I have found a system that works and it only involves only one indicator. What he said did not surprise me at all. In fact it just confirmed what people are like in this profession. And like they always say, you cant teach old dogs new tricks. I suppose that it doesn't matter anyway since he's pretty successful in his profession and a good one at that. One thing that convinced me to this day that this system works is that there are so many traders out there that give you their opinion and never listen to yours and yet they are the ones losing money. The way I see it is, if your breaking even most of the time on your trades.. your way better than 80% of them out there.
The Stochastics is nothing new and nothing that hasn't been looked at by many traders. In fact there are tons of indicators out there that can be used successfully, but I chose the stochastics because it has a ceiling, a floor and it also has your overbought and oversold line. It also has enough volatility to trade whether its a weekly, daily, 60min, 30min, 15min, 5min or 1min. But let me say this and I'm not the only one who have said this.. "The more trades you pull the more chances for mistakes." Therefore I don't think trading in the 5min or 1min. is a good idea. Unless you think you can beat your odds then go ahead be my guest.
People will always show you an indicator, and will always say.. "see its diverging, or see its bearish / bullish etc. etc." What they don't tell you is if they picked up that signal at its lowest or highest. Were they able to call it when it started / ended?
The key here is you need to base your signals with something else. You need to compare your analysis with a secondary signal. Now here is where it gets interesting. Ever get an analysis from someone who is comparing MACD to RSI or OBV to MAs? Sure it sounds great coming out of their mouth but that just fluff. I can't say I can tell anyone where markets are headed, but the best way to win in this market is to never SPECULATE or ANTICIPATE. Always REACT.
As the great Jesse Livermore said:
"I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior."
But its not in human nature to react. We as humans always try and try to beat or out smart the market. We want to out think it and we want to say we are the best. But we are not.. I can say that there is only a handful of traders and analyst who can forecast the future, but even they won't completely reveal their secrets. So don't expect to enter this profession and think everything will land in your lap. My parents always told me that I only play the stock market because I want easy money. I don't think I have worked hard ever in my life compared to having a fulltime job. Not only do I have to do all the work, but no one pays me to do the work. This is like working for commission if you make any profits. Agree?
Anyway its very simple. If you need to compare your indicator, you should always compare it with the same indicator. What I mean is compare it with a different time frame preferably with 2 time frames higher. Therefore if your using the 30min to trade then you should use the daily to compare with your 30min. If your using your 60min then you use your weekly to compare. There is no set rule for this.. and so long as your comfortable with whatever time frames you use is good enough. I can tell you though that using this will help you find momentum or exhaustion in the stock or market depending on what your looking at.
I have said this many times. I hope you can see through the metaphor as I try to make it more understandable. Imagine a hammer and a nail. Both hammer and nail are considered stochastics but the nail represents the higher time frame (lets say daily), and the hammer represents the lower time frame (lets say 30min.) These two work hand in hand and they need each other to function. When the daily stochastics moves, it moves due to the 30min. There will be more movement on the hammer than the nail because it is whats driving the nail down. Each time that hammer pulls back its called a RESET. Imagine now that if your trend was down for example you would want to short the market. Your Nail (Daily) shows a trend downwards. Your hammer now wants to move this nail down and if the hammer is close to the nail it will have a hard time driving it down. So what it needs to do is to pull back and reset itself so that it could get more energy to push that nail down. The stochastics functions the same way. If your short the market then you would need to look at the 30min to see where your stochastics is at. You would not short the market when the 30min is at oversold even if it pushes down further because on a 30min basis it is limited to time and you might only get a few points out of it. The best time is for you to wait for the 30min to pull back up to overbought and then confirm with your daily that it is still bearish, and only then can you go back in short. Do this and be diligent, be disciplined and you will find that this is probably the best tool you can rely on.
MP
Now if you find this educating and would like to donate $5 dollars as an appreciation. I would like to thank you in advance.
PayPal info: (use the email at the bottom recipients info)
3mprotect@gmail.com
My uncle used to be the governor of stock exchange back in Asia, and I had proposed to him that I have found a system that works and it only involves only one indicator. What he said did not surprise me at all. In fact it just confirmed what people are like in this profession. And like they always say, you cant teach old dogs new tricks. I suppose that it doesn't matter anyway since he's pretty successful in his profession and a good one at that. One thing that convinced me to this day that this system works is that there are so many traders out there that give you their opinion and never listen to yours and yet they are the ones losing money. The way I see it is, if your breaking even most of the time on your trades.. your way better than 80% of them out there.
The Stochastics is nothing new and nothing that hasn't been looked at by many traders. In fact there are tons of indicators out there that can be used successfully, but I chose the stochastics because it has a ceiling, a floor and it also has your overbought and oversold line. It also has enough volatility to trade whether its a weekly, daily, 60min, 30min, 15min, 5min or 1min. But let me say this and I'm not the only one who have said this.. "The more trades you pull the more chances for mistakes." Therefore I don't think trading in the 5min or 1min. is a good idea. Unless you think you can beat your odds then go ahead be my guest.
People will always show you an indicator, and will always say.. "see its diverging, or see its bearish / bullish etc. etc." What they don't tell you is if they picked up that signal at its lowest or highest. Were they able to call it when it started / ended?
The key here is you need to base your signals with something else. You need to compare your analysis with a secondary signal. Now here is where it gets interesting. Ever get an analysis from someone who is comparing MACD to RSI or OBV to MAs? Sure it sounds great coming out of their mouth but that just fluff. I can't say I can tell anyone where markets are headed, but the best way to win in this market is to never SPECULATE or ANTICIPATE. Always REACT.
As the great Jesse Livermore said:
"I never try to predict or anticipate. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior."
But its not in human nature to react. We as humans always try and try to beat or out smart the market. We want to out think it and we want to say we are the best. But we are not.. I can say that there is only a handful of traders and analyst who can forecast the future, but even they won't completely reveal their secrets. So don't expect to enter this profession and think everything will land in your lap. My parents always told me that I only play the stock market because I want easy money. I don't think I have worked hard ever in my life compared to having a fulltime job. Not only do I have to do all the work, but no one pays me to do the work. This is like working for commission if you make any profits. Agree?
Anyway its very simple. If you need to compare your indicator, you should always compare it with the same indicator. What I mean is compare it with a different time frame preferably with 2 time frames higher. Therefore if your using the 30min to trade then you should use the daily to compare with your 30min. If your using your 60min then you use your weekly to compare. There is no set rule for this.. and so long as your comfortable with whatever time frames you use is good enough. I can tell you though that using this will help you find momentum or exhaustion in the stock or market depending on what your looking at.
I have said this many times. I hope you can see through the metaphor as I try to make it more understandable. Imagine a hammer and a nail. Both hammer and nail are considered stochastics but the nail represents the higher time frame (lets say daily), and the hammer represents the lower time frame (lets say 30min.) These two work hand in hand and they need each other to function. When the daily stochastics moves, it moves due to the 30min. There will be more movement on the hammer than the nail because it is whats driving the nail down. Each time that hammer pulls back its called a RESET. Imagine now that if your trend was down for example you would want to short the market. Your Nail (Daily) shows a trend downwards. Your hammer now wants to move this nail down and if the hammer is close to the nail it will have a hard time driving it down. So what it needs to do is to pull back and reset itself so that it could get more energy to push that nail down. The stochastics functions the same way. If your short the market then you would need to look at the 30min to see where your stochastics is at. You would not short the market when the 30min is at oversold even if it pushes down further because on a 30min basis it is limited to time and you might only get a few points out of it. The best time is for you to wait for the 30min to pull back up to overbought and then confirm with your daily that it is still bearish, and only then can you go back in short. Do this and be diligent, be disciplined and you will find that this is probably the best tool you can rely on.
MP
Now if you find this educating and would like to donate $5 dollars as an appreciation. I would like to thank you in advance.
PayPal info: (use the email at the bottom recipients info)
3mprotect@gmail.com
Saturday, 12 January 2013
Friday, 11 January 2013
A SIMPLE CASE OF STOCHASTICS part 1
I get asked all the time why I use Elliott Wave Theory (EW) even if I keep saying it doesn't work on its own. The key to this theory is to recognize patterns to help with some of your other analysis. I use many things to help me with analysis and recently I have been delving into planetary cycles thanks to Platy.
We all wish we could be as good or trade like GANN, but knowing what he knows is just one of many traits he had to trade successfully. I find that personality plays a big part in ones trading lifestyle. We need to be curious enough to keep looking for that elusive answer, and we need to have patience, and nerves. If your the type to just want the answer you will never get it. Its a life long process that Gann have been blessed with finding. If only we could all be so lucky. Many who studied his system end up concentrating on only parts of his work, probably because they don't have the patience to go through everything and find that what they are doing is enough.
I started my technical trading using typical trend lines back in the day and that proved inefficient, then I went on to EW. This also proved to fall short on its own even though I can say that I have become good at counting waves. The problem is that with 21 patterns, every turn gives you more possibilities its like a road that branches off and when you turn into your left or right more roads pop out. You might be able to eliminate half of the patterns.. but you still have less than a 50% chance of finding the pattern as they can subdivide or extend and they can all eventually come to the same conclusion, but one wrong count and all your counts are wrong. Playing roulette back in the day allowed me to think about my chances in succeeding and I apply that same mentality today.
I can better my chance with roulette than the 50% that people say it to be. You see roulette has numbers and colour. The colour does not pay out big, but if you were to look at the previous trends then you can at least increase your chance that the colours would change. (if for the last 3 or 4 rounds the red has been popping up then you know a black will eventually come out of hiding), you wouldn't put your money on red if the ball has landed on red 8 consecutive times would you? Winning small for longer time is better than winning big and losing more later. The trend is important as well as the time but if I'm not good with time I wouldn't go into trading stocks using a tool I don't know how to use. Im sure all trading tools work once you know them but if it was easy everyone would be using it. Just pick your weapon of choice...
What I do know is Time Frames. This is different from Time Cycles, but I am sure in my career I will eventually be able to link both of them together. Right now though keeping your trading tools simple is KEY.
You maybe able to get your hands on many indicators, trends, and patterns but you need to know how to use them. It confuses the mind to have so many charts and indicators, so when it comes to trading time.. just keep it simple (KISS). During the day I have many charts open and spread out over 5 screens. But I only have 1 screen that holds 3 to 4 of the same charts in different time frames and in that I will only have PRICE, MA maybe a BB and STOCHASTICS. Most of the time though I only look at the Stoch.
Believe it or not you don't need a lot or any. You just need to know how to use "ONE" and know how to use it well.
Part 2 will be posted this weekend.
We all wish we could be as good or trade like GANN, but knowing what he knows is just one of many traits he had to trade successfully. I find that personality plays a big part in ones trading lifestyle. We need to be curious enough to keep looking for that elusive answer, and we need to have patience, and nerves. If your the type to just want the answer you will never get it. Its a life long process that Gann have been blessed with finding. If only we could all be so lucky. Many who studied his system end up concentrating on only parts of his work, probably because they don't have the patience to go through everything and find that what they are doing is enough.
I started my technical trading using typical trend lines back in the day and that proved inefficient, then I went on to EW. This also proved to fall short on its own even though I can say that I have become good at counting waves. The problem is that with 21 patterns, every turn gives you more possibilities its like a road that branches off and when you turn into your left or right more roads pop out. You might be able to eliminate half of the patterns.. but you still have less than a 50% chance of finding the pattern as they can subdivide or extend and they can all eventually come to the same conclusion, but one wrong count and all your counts are wrong. Playing roulette back in the day allowed me to think about my chances in succeeding and I apply that same mentality today.
I can better my chance with roulette than the 50% that people say it to be. You see roulette has numbers and colour. The colour does not pay out big, but if you were to look at the previous trends then you can at least increase your chance that the colours would change. (if for the last 3 or 4 rounds the red has been popping up then you know a black will eventually come out of hiding), you wouldn't put your money on red if the ball has landed on red 8 consecutive times would you? Winning small for longer time is better than winning big and losing more later. The trend is important as well as the time but if I'm not good with time I wouldn't go into trading stocks using a tool I don't know how to use. Im sure all trading tools work once you know them but if it was easy everyone would be using it. Just pick your weapon of choice...
What I do know is Time Frames. This is different from Time Cycles, but I am sure in my career I will eventually be able to link both of them together. Right now though keeping your trading tools simple is KEY.
You maybe able to get your hands on many indicators, trends, and patterns but you need to know how to use them. It confuses the mind to have so many charts and indicators, so when it comes to trading time.. just keep it simple (KISS). During the day I have many charts open and spread out over 5 screens. But I only have 1 screen that holds 3 to 4 of the same charts in different time frames and in that I will only have PRICE, MA maybe a BB and STOCHASTICS. Most of the time though I only look at the Stoch.
Believe it or not you don't need a lot or any. You just need to know how to use "ONE" and know how to use it well.
Part 2 will be posted this weekend.
11 Jan 2013
We didn't get that Higher high for SPX and divergence on 60min still cant be confirmed till we get that higher high in price.
Our Daily chart is still showing an overbought trend and we should only get short when our daily stochastics crosses and pushes out of the overbought range.
Our Daily chart is still showing an overbought trend and we should only get short when our daily stochastics crosses and pushes out of the overbought range.
Thursday, 10 January 2013
WFC or WTF
Either way its going to be exciting sooner than later. WFC reporting tomorrow, so will banks tank or will bank surge. Mean while markets have rallied 100% of the 2002 low to 2007. Amazing ...
Can the Mark of the Beast please stand up...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/807-number-sp-500-beast
Can the Mark of the Beast please stand up...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/807-number-sp-500-beast
10 Jan 2013
We had a higher high today on SPX but still short of the 2012 Sept high (inches). Looking at our SPX 60min chart we can see our Stochastics are overbought. The chances are good for a downtrend tomorrow due to the Daily Stochastics diverging with prices. For us to move higher we must reset on a minor time frame the 60min before a higher and longer trend can resume. A move up tomorrow by the 60min stochastics will most likely eliminate the daily divergence seen today. Risk here is for downside.
60Min
Daily
60Min
Daily
Wednesday, 9 January 2013
Got my Book...
Page 10 and Im already in awe...
Worth the 200 bucks...
So far based on what I can figure out if the Stock market birth started in 1792 and we use the 68 year cycle we get to the latest 1996 from here we had a bull run to end at the top of 2000 and it started a 17year cycle that will end in 2017. 1996 brought a low in January and July the Dow continued its bull trend, my only thought is that this 17th year with a trend up could only bring a 17th year TOP. Then there is the Mark of the beast at 666 weeks or 12.8 years give or take a few months since the top of 2000 didn't exactly top at the beginning of the year for some, (Dow Jan 2000, SPX Mar 2000, COMPQ Mar. 2000).
Dow Jan 2000 + 12.8 years = Sept 2012 and so far we are holding that HIGH.
SPX and Compq Mar 2000 + 12.8 years = Jan 2013. So far SPX is flirting with its Sept. 2012 top and Compq is looking like the Dow
2013 +- coincides with a 3 year bear trend pre termination at 2017. These are just basic observations and not to specify or accurately state a start of a bear trend without reading the whole book. Therefore please take these notes for educational purposes only.
9 Jan 2012
we have trended sideways to down since our post this mid-day. The 5th wave was not yet completed and looks as if we are still in the 4th. Therefore I am expecting a move up tomorrow to surpass todays high at the least. This would allow for the Stoch. to diverge with price and as some cycle analysts out there are expecting a significant day this would fall in sync with an important pattern.
EW theory would classify this as an ABC move for 2nd wave if we don't surpass the Sept. 2012 high. If we do surpass the highs then we could be looking for higher highs for more continuation of an ABC ending 5th or this would extend to a bullish 3rd of 5th wave diagonal.
We have an update today from Ernie Quigley that says a minor top this mid January might be turned into a significant top that will turn down till 2016.
very alert for signs that a short-term high may turn into a high of greater importance."
Ernie Quigley
EW theory would classify this as an ABC move for 2nd wave if we don't surpass the Sept. 2012 high. If we do surpass the highs then we could be looking for higher highs for more continuation of an ABC ending 5th or this would extend to a bullish 3rd of 5th wave diagonal.
We have an update today from Ernie Quigley that says a minor top this mid January might be turned into a significant top that will turn down till 2016.
"Mid-January is very rapidly approaching. I am
very alert for signs that a short-term high may turn into a high of greater importance."
Ernie Quigley
Tuesday, 8 January 2013
GANN wheel based..
Based on April 10 Low, May 1 High, and a June 4 Low. these are support and resistance I got as a back test and looking to see how the forecast pans out.
So if this is to work we should have a LOW for tomorrow.
8 Jan 2013
Markets have been sideways since the gap up in the New Year open.
This usually means that we will push higher but there are sentiments from many technical analyst including me that the move so far this New Year is at a disconnect.
On an intra-day basis, our 60min Stoch. has crossed up and out of oversold resetting itself and gives us a higher chance of pushing up either higher highs or test the highs of Sept 2012. For us to have a substantial move down the 60min Stoch. MUST have a strong impact to move the daily Stoch. out of its overbought area. This trend would last days to weeks if our daily Stoch. crosses out of overbought.
On an intra-day basis, our 60min Stoch. has crossed up and out of oversold resetting itself and gives us a higher chance of pushing up either higher highs or test the highs of Sept 2012. For us to have a substantial move down the 60min Stoch. MUST have a strong impact to move the daily Stoch. out of its overbought area. This trend would last days to weeks if our daily Stoch. crosses out of overbought.
Monday, 7 January 2013
GANN WHEEL UPDATES
I have been tracking the Gann Wheel since June 4th low 2012 and so far this is what I got.
0 degrees - June 4th Support
45 degrees - July 19th Resistance
90 degrees - Sept 4th Support
120 degrees - Oct 5th Resistance
135 degrees - Oct 18th Resistance
180 degrees - Dec 4th Support
225 degrees - Jan 18th ( ) R
240 degrees - Feb 3rd ( ) R
270 degrees - Mar 5th ( )S
------------------------------------------------
144 degrees - Oct 28th ( Hurricane Sandy markets was closed)
216 degrees - Jan 9th ( ) NA
The above Support / Resistance level has worked out so far with Jan 18th, Feb 3, and March 5th still to come. Beside the Black brackets are R's or S's and its what I'm expecting it to be when we arrive at those dates. I have noticed in the past the square or triangle are opposite each other when it comes to Support and Resistance.
The method of this is that if you "START" with a support then the Square becomes support points S - (0, 90, 180, 270) and Triangle becomes resistance point R - (120, 240).
I have not yet labelled the 144 degrees and 216 degrees as it is outside both triangle and square so this is something to watch for. The 144 degree did not show a support or resistance of sort when Sandy wreaked HAVOC on the EAST coast.
I have labelled the following DOW chart with RED AND GREEN Arrows to show the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE dates based on the GANN wheel above while the Purple vertical lines are undecided points. The dotted lines are still to be determined.
If anyone has any opinion please don't hesitate to post... Would love your comments.
0 degrees - June 4th Support
45 degrees - July 19th Resistance
90 degrees - Sept 4th Support
120 degrees - Oct 5th Resistance
135 degrees - Oct 18th Resistance
180 degrees - Dec 4th Support
225 degrees - Jan 18th ( ) R
240 degrees - Feb 3rd ( ) R
270 degrees - Mar 5th ( )S
------------------------------------------------
144 degrees - Oct 28th ( Hurricane Sandy markets was closed)
216 degrees - Jan 9th ( ) NA
The above Support / Resistance level has worked out so far with Jan 18th, Feb 3, and March 5th still to come. Beside the Black brackets are R's or S's and its what I'm expecting it to be when we arrive at those dates. I have noticed in the past the square or triangle are opposite each other when it comes to Support and Resistance.
The method of this is that if you "START" with a support then the Square becomes support points S - (0, 90, 180, 270) and Triangle becomes resistance point R - (120, 240).
I have not yet labelled the 144 degrees and 216 degrees as it is outside both triangle and square so this is something to watch for. The 144 degree did not show a support or resistance of sort when Sandy wreaked HAVOC on the EAST coast.
I have labelled the following DOW chart with RED AND GREEN Arrows to show the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE dates based on the GANN wheel above while the Purple vertical lines are undecided points. The dotted lines are still to be determined.
7 Jan 2013
Markets was flat today its like watching grass grow. The past few days have been research time for me. So going back to technical analysis lets look at the possibility for the new few days, weeks and months ahead.
Looking back at the Dow Jones 1900- present we can see a trend that has been holding up since the bottom of 1932. This is a pretty large support channel. If we break down as a probability in the year 2013 we can see that there area of 7860 is the lower BB. The worst case scenario is the 200MA which is also hugging the lower Trend Channel line at 4535. Of course these numbers will change as we move up in time.
This chart also shows a stochastic that has crossed but not out of the overbought situation. For the Quarterly Stoch. to push down, the Monthly will have to do the work to push it down and for that to happen the Weekly chart "must" turn. All time frame must work with each other and this is the way to use time frames for analysis. We are already in overbought situation with the weekly SPX and the DOW still has to catch up. First clue will be when it crosses down and my rule is that if the weekly moves it will move for weeks or months..
Looking back at the Dow Jones 1900- present we can see a trend that has been holding up since the bottom of 1932. This is a pretty large support channel. If we break down as a probability in the year 2013 we can see that there area of 7860 is the lower BB. The worst case scenario is the 200MA which is also hugging the lower Trend Channel line at 4535. Of course these numbers will change as we move up in time.
This chart also shows a stochastic that has crossed but not out of the overbought situation. For the Quarterly Stoch. to push down, the Monthly will have to do the work to push it down and for that to happen the Weekly chart "must" turn. All time frame must work with each other and this is the way to use time frames for analysis. We are already in overbought situation with the weekly SPX and the DOW still has to catch up. First clue will be when it crosses down and my rule is that if the weekly moves it will move for weeks or months..
Our Daily Stoch. have been showing an eagerness to turn down for SPX. We need strong momentum down for the Daily to push the Weekly down from its position.
Weekend find CYCLES
I was looking through all cycles this past weekend to determine if most of the cycle analysts out there are in sync with each other or far apart, and they seem to be within a few months of each other. Therefore we can use those dates to see if our indicators are nearing tops or topping out or bottoming.
These dates are not generated by me so please take these dates with a word of caution. It is always best to do your own research, but its always good to see what we find and what we can share that can help with your success.
Merriman - June 2013 Major High
Cowan - May 21 - 28 Major High
Martin Armstrong - Aug 7 Major High
Bradley Date - June 21 Major High
Ernie Quigley - April - May Major High
Bloggers that I have been reading up on had hints of the following also
April 2013 Major High
Jan 2013 Major High
I got this chart courtesy of Harmonic Timing and its a pressure chart generated by Dan Ferrera from "wheels within wheels". This Chart was generated from a study of the repeating 10year cycle which can have a variance of a few months and so Dan averaged all the years dating back from 1881 to present and came up with an average of a typical move for the years that end with the same numbers (Ie. - 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931, 1941...2001, 2011.) The same would be calculated for the years ending in 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Because this is not my work I have to cover some of the chart as it would be unfair for those that paid to get them. But hopefully it was enough to help with your analysis.
These dates are not generated by me so please take these dates with a word of caution. It is always best to do your own research, but its always good to see what we find and what we can share that can help with your success.
Merriman - June 2013 Major High
Cowan - May 21 - 28 Major High
Martin Armstrong - Aug 7 Major High
Bradley Date - June 21 Major High
Ernie Quigley - April - May Major High
Bloggers that I have been reading up on had hints of the following also
April 2013 Major High
Jan 2013 Major High
I got this chart courtesy of Harmonic Timing and its a pressure chart generated by Dan Ferrera from "wheels within wheels". This Chart was generated from a study of the repeating 10year cycle which can have a variance of a few months and so Dan averaged all the years dating back from 1881 to present and came up with an average of a typical move for the years that end with the same numbers (Ie. - 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931, 1941...2001, 2011.) The same would be calculated for the years ending in 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Because this is not my work I have to cover some of the chart as it would be unfair for those that paid to get them. But hopefully it was enough to help with your analysis.
Friday, 4 January 2013
4 Jan 2013
Another overbought day for the Indexes and this time the Daily Stochastics has caught up to the rise in price the past few days. But as discussed this mid afternoon HERE, we have diverging indicators and oversold on a micro level. We need for these signals to at least reset back down for a sustained move higher in the future.
GOLD daily
A divergence on Stoch. would trigger a buying opportunity. In the mean time trend is still down until it crosses up.
GLD is used as Daily charts have not updated yet.
Notice that a diagonal (wedge) is developing. If we are expecting a bull run then these 3 wave pattern from the Oct 2012 top needs to hold. A brief rally up and a new low would suggest we are in a longer term down trend (5 waves).
Notice that a diagonal (wedge) is developing. If we are expecting a bull run then these 3 wave pattern from the Oct 2012 top needs to hold. A brief rally up and a new low would suggest we are in a longer term down trend (5 waves).
Thursday, 3 January 2013
3 Jan 2012
We have a turn down on our 60min Stoch. for SPX. This should start the move down and continue tomorrow once we cross out of the overbought situation. The impulsiveness of that move will tell us if this is going to fall further or its just a correction for more upside. One thing to note is that our Daily stoch. shot up today to overbought position from mid level yesterday. Definitely not normal, but good sign for bears that this move up is not one that drags up forever.
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
2 Jan 2013
A very Optimistic market indeed and the cliff agreement is not even that note worthy than a glorified can kicking. Our daily and weekly charts all have divergences and that does not bode well for markets. In EW we can look for another 4th wave pull back and another move up for a final 5th wave move to finish this recent euphoric rise.
The wave structure is showing an ABC move up on the SPX and DOW but I don't see prices surpassing the highs made in Sept. - Oct. 2012. If we do pass the highs we should expect the waves to expand into 5 waves rather than the 3 we are seeing now from the Nov 16th low.
The wave structure is showing an ABC move up on the SPX and DOW but I don't see prices surpassing the highs made in Sept. - Oct. 2012. If we do pass the highs we should expect the waves to expand into 5 waves rather than the 3 we are seeing now from the Nov 16th low.
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