31 Oct 2013

Happy Halloween!!!  We have continued the momentum lower for markets, but it is still not quite clear as to whether this is a corrective move down or a sustainable down trend.  The clue is on our indicator to reset and make a lower high.  The best timeframe to see this of course is on the 60min chart.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

Since tomorrow is a reactionary day we could expect an acceleration of sorts. But we should still follow our indicated trend (Short-Term).

29 Oct 2013

We seem to be making lower highs on the hourly chart, which could mean we are in a new trend.  Whether or not it is short term or medium term still needs to be determined.  A continuation tomorrow would be a good sign.  There is a Nov 1 reactionary date and for most cycle analyst it is a very important one.  So keep your eyes peeled...

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

Our angles seemed to be still in control of prices, and two of those are holding up prices in the SPX at the moment.

29 Oct 2013

It looks to try for the next uptrend angle.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

28 Oct 2013

Markets are grinding higher, and the Dow is still lagging.  Our indicators have not changed its course and still to the upside.  Financials are still lagging as well to the SPX or Nasdaq. 

Main-trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

We have started a negative divergence on our intra-day Macd and SPX prices.

25 Oct 2013

It seems the continued correction that I was looking for did not come and we have to admit when we are wrong.  That said, we are in an overbought condition both in an intra-day level and at a short-term level.  Perhaps we are still in a corrective mode, but we have expanded our correction to surpass the previous highs.  We will see by next week...

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

The next resistance to watch is at the upper angle where it touched the previous high.

24 Oct 2013

The corrective theme (if it is one) has continued for a 2nd day, and I am still expecting a downward bias.  I was not expecting a extended session for the correction but we must be patient.  Ultimately though we are still in our main trend of an upward direction so the momentum for the downside is subdued as evident of the past few days.  Once it is done, we can then try to see if the upward trend continues.  The clue will be in the movement in the next couple of days.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

23 Oct 2013

The downward move has not ended yet and we should see a extension of that tomorrow for lower lows, but once lower low has been made, I would suggest looking to see if the rally to the upside has a 3 wave and corrective feel for it.  This should indicate for us that the momentum has switched to the downside.  The 60min level is looking like its making a head and shoulder pattern, but until we have a breakdown from the neckline, nothing is confirmed.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

SPX ANGLE AND EW COUNT

Although stretched, it is not impossible.  These angles were drawn previous to us making these higher highs and as suggested by the angles prices are congesting to an end game. FWIW.

22 Oct 2013

I was hoping for a more pronounced reversal candle today, but didn't happen.  But more importantly though is that the pattern that formed today is a corrective move which is not finished.  The EW here is not as important but we should look at the move as and ABC or 1,2 and 3 to come.  That said, our trends are still short-term overbought.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

 

Yesterdays analysis that we would see higher highs due to the a,b,c,d,e pattern has proven to be the right call.  So we will see tomorrow morning if our corrective call will be on par again...

21 Oct 2013

SPX has been in a sideways pattern all day, and a possible abcde pattern which means we should continue higher for the short term.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

18 Oct 2013

Markets proved to be strong and nothing was held back.  Short-Term Trend is running the show and we are "UP".  The Dow is still playing catch up though.  Vix has made a divergence in the intra day level which could mean a pull back.  The last 2 days of calling for a correction did not happen, so I will just watch this on Monday.

Main-Trend: UP (Confirmed)
Short-Term: UP

SPX, GOOG, CMG, MS,  new all time highs.. and its like 1999 again.

UNDERSTANDING THE DEBT

17 Oct 2013

As mentioned yesterday, we had a reactionary day today and that could have been a double reaction.  The reason why is that we accelerated to a new high in the SPX and met a resistance on one of our angles.  The patterns does not seem clear, but one thing is for sure.  We have been on an ending diagonal pattern the last few days.  We must respect the pattern and see what comes out of it.  On a indicator perspective, we have an overbought situation now for a few days on our intra-day chart.  The move recently has not given us any way of a corrective pull back, so the question is will we see one soon.

Today Cowan issued a statement on his site:
"Mr. Cowan's 2013+ forecast listed 3 dates as critical in 2013, Mid-May, Mid-August, and October. The indices have made triple tops on these dates!".

So, we should see if there is something regarding his forecasted date today.  For now our trend is our friend...

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

I showed a chart a few days ago showing a possible scenario, and if today is a top of some sort with a 3 wave pattern as suggested above, then we should take the count with more seriousness.  Because a drop from here would be just a powerful for a C wave of a 4th wave possible.  Also note that the DOW has failed to make higher highs (Is this a hint of sorts?).

REACTIONARY DAY

There is a reactionary day tomorrow Oct 17, 2013.. So please be aware of a potential in price movement.

WALL STREET CODE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51Zc23faz3o

16 Oct 2013

SPX for the most part of the day hit another one of our angles above.  The continued correction I was anticipating did not occur but nonetheless we had the higher prices that we were expecting.  It seems now that we could be forming a ending diagonal and this could be a deeper retracement since we have been in an overbought condition for quite sometime now.  A break of this diagonal triangle would signal that the trend has changed.  Whether short or long term will have to be analyzed later in time.  Note that divergence in the 60min Stoch. and MACD are present as well.  A higher low in price with the indicators resetting would indicate that higher highs should be expected when the time comes.

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Note: Our daily Upper BB line is right at 1727 at the moment, so we should watch that level for possible target before a reversal.

 

 

It's to far out to say this analysis is certain but it is just another way to look at things.  Nothing is impossible until we get there... This scenario would put the Nov 1st reactionary day as a low.

 



15 Oct 2013

The movement the last 2 days is a corrective pattern which suggest we are looking for higher highs in the next few trading days to come.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

Our angles have so far been a good predictor of resistance and support.. Will we try for 1695- 1690 tomorrow?  This range is also where the 200ma and the 75 ma are meeting in the 60min chart as shown below.

Woman Tells Mugger She's An NSA Intern, Mugger Runs Away

I just had to post this... It's funny in the fact that the NSA could even be useful in helping anyone in anything other than the government.

Courtesy of Biznezz Insiderz:

A mugger opted not to steal the belongings of a Capitol Hill resident Monday because of her daring bluff.
She told him she was an NSA intern.
Tim Mak of The Washington Examiner reports:

 

"I told him that the NSA could track the phone within minutes, and it could cause possible problems for him," the victim [who actually works at a nonprofit] recounted.  [T]he assailant just "looked at me and ran away," the victim said.

Mak writes that possibly the mugger wondered how he would be able to keep those items safe from the prying eyes of the NSA. The anecdote shows two key things: some muggers must be keeping up with the news, and the NSA now has a pop-culture identity akin to an all-seeing-eye.
The areas around D.C. are not the safest in the country, despite all the security around the Capitol.
Just this month D.C. police gunned down Miriam Carey after her erratic driving threatened bodily harm to the officers. In September, a former military contractor went on a shooting spree in the Navy Yard that ended with more than a dozen dead, including the shooter.
In 2012, D.C. ranked 8th in murder rate for America's most dangerous cities.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/woman-tells-mugger-shes-an-nsa-intern-2013-10#ixzz2hosCZsaP

MARGIN DEBT

Notice the SPX and Margin Debt turns were marked by divergences, where Margin Debt made lower highs and SPX made higher highs.  We are now in the same scenario.

Courtesy of SolarCycles...

14 Oct 2013

We broke our down trending angle with conviction today. It seemed we were headed for a negative day by the open of the session, but markets seemed to have fooled most again today.  We do have a 60min divergence happening here and I have not seen a significant corrective move for some sort of 2nd wave EW pattern, but as our indicator have shown, we are still in a upward mode.  The key now here is the 1730 high made on Sept.  This needs to be taken out or we will have a lower high if our momentum turns down.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

11 Oct 2013

The SPX managed to hit our angle.  We have been overbought for the past 2 days, and although I did not see a retracement or correction, I still do expect one. 

We have a reversal candle on the weekly chart, so this can be a precursor to more upside. 

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

OO OH CANADA...

Courtesy of Biznezz Insider...

10 Oct 2013

Todays price action was one of the biggest one day move I have seen in a while, and so far this year.   Pretty badass if you ask me...  The call yesterday for a reversal was in the cautious side but it was a good one.  A reversal like this are not uncommon and most of the time it can wipe out a lot of gains.  This is why it is better to take some gains when a bottom is near.  Overnight sessions can make a difference and in this case it made it right after yesterdays session and just kept on creeping up.  Our main trend is still down, but any impulsive move like this is surely to lag the main-trends effectiveness.  So the Short-term should be followed for now.

Our C wave target was not hit, but it was close enough, and a pull back from here would be expected since we are short-term overbought on the SPX.  If anyone has not gotten out of the short position, I would suggest on a corrective move by the 60min Stoch. Unless of course we crash, but there is nothing to suggest that scenario.... Unless we are in a C wave of B (Just thinking out loud but see 2nd chart).  Also to note is the weekly chart that has put in a reversal doji as well, but that cannot be confirmed till tomorrow.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

 

 

9 Oct 2013

Although we have not gotten our signal for a reversal,  I believe we are close to one.  Today the SPX put in a reversal candle and a black on at that.  We shall see how the markets react in the next few days when both sides sit down and talk face to face.  Either way we should look at a plan to exit our short position as our indicators are oversold on a daily basis.  Our 60min chart has not given any form of divergence for the upside but it doesn't have to.  Ideally though we would like to see a higher low on any timeframe first.  But lets not get ahead of ourselves....

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

NOTE:  The thin red dotted line represents the possible B wave stops if we have an A=C (RED) scenario.  Todays move to the lower thin red line could be only a sub A wave of a B wave...

8 Oct 2013

Right on cue.  Yesterdays Analysis of the EW pattern was right on.  The acceleration to the downside is the suggested outcome.  The angle that prices hit today in the 60min was not a strong enough support, although it tried to rally back up above the angle it managed to just hit the underside of it before going back down.  There isn't much change in the charts today as all analysis is going as expected.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

Note: Expecting a impulsive rally once target is hit, but we should not try to pick bottoms.  So if you are short, please plan ahead as to where you need to, or satisfied to take profits and wait out the completion of the current move before we look for indicators to reset.

7 Oct 2013

The EW got much more clearer today as the day came to a close.  The past few weeks has seen us going trough many 3 wave patterns and today gave us more hint as to what could be happening.  I don't advise going on EW counts alone but this count looks promising.

Remember, you saw it here first.. LOL.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

ALGO MYTHS?

4 Oct 2013

The rally in the markets today looked strong even without any deals being made by the both sides of the Gov't.  Is this rally to suck more people in with a tanking market to come by Monday?  I'm not sure, but indicators were overbought all day.  Maybe the big boys know something we don't, and buying knowing there will be a deal made before the week starts.  All speculation...

Main-Trend: DOWN (Confirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

Note: The daily 75ma and lower BB sits at 1668 respectively...  So watch for this level if we drift lower on Monday.  A breach would look for SPX going to 1640 - 1620.  A shoot up will have resistance at 1710 - 1705.

3 Oct 2013

Todays price action made new lows and is what the bears wanted to see.  Although we saw a rally by mid day, the most important thing to take from all of this is that we have seen a lower low in the SPX.  Our short term signal has moved to an UP position even though we have a negative day.  This could be a signal of a diverging pattern happening.  Current lows on the SPX is at a 61.8% retracement.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Our Intra-day signal is on the buy position so we might still see a continued rally...

1 Oct 2013

Prices pushed down today but completely retraced the gap made this morning.  This could be more bearish than it is bullish but I will give some possible wave counts below.  The zigzagging affair is pushing me to believe this is a build up to a bigger push lower.  Until I see it though its all just speculation.  My intra-day indicator seems to be in a bullish mood but there are resistance ahead around the 1696-1700 range.  Tomorrow is a reactionary day, so lets keep an eye out for some impulsive moves.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term DOWN


Bear #1

Bullish #1 Corrective for an ABC move down then a higher high..

60min the bigger picture count of an ABC corrective down pattern...

SUPER BEARISH SETUP...

MONTHLY OVERBOUGHT EXIT...

Below is my observation of most extreme weekly Stochastics Divergence and what happened during that time.  Is it me or does this seem to be similar path the 2013 price is currently taking?

NYSE DIVERGENCE AND RESISTANCE

This chart has always been a good foretelling of trends and breakdown point.  Currently it is pointing down along with the MACD.

1 Oct 2013

Everyone was quite surprised that the markets rallied today amid the gov't shutting down.  If our pattern churns out a 5 wave up by morning we could either call it a 1st wave or an A wave of a B wave corrective move from the lows made on the 30th of Sept.  Our Intra-day is at overbought position and would look for a reset and confirm a higher low for the bulls to take control.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN