31 Jan 2014

Talk about VOLATILITY.  First down, then up, then down.  If everyday was like this we would be making money hand over fist.  Problem is we don't know when it happens, it just happens.  Yesterdays price in the SPX closed uber bullish, but today the market wiped it out like it didn't even matter.  We are still above he support line of 1780 - 1770, but prices are back below the daily 75ma. and price made a lower high from yesterdays high. 

Todays drop could be a 1st wave of another full wave down.  We are now reaching that 4th time is better than the 3rd time trying to break the support.  I feel that the next time we test the lows again, we will break it convincingly.  Its not to say that the 1800 is not attainable but its looking less likely as the days goes on.  The next level to look at should be the 1750, 1740, 1710, and 1700.  If we are counting this as an ABC pattern for a correction from the highs, we can use the A=C probablility and it gives us a target of 1720 with possible throw under if the momentum has legs, but the 1720 is the Sept 2013 top range.  If we are counting the next leg lower as a 5th wave then the subwave  3 of that targets the 1750 price as the 161.8% of the 1st wave.  These are all probabilities, but there is no question we are in a downtrend.

Now for the technicals.  The SPX is sporting a small right shoulder of some sort if you want to use it as a measure.  Our ST is back to a down position and still in Oversold as I indicated yesterday.  Therefore Price Acceleration risk is still to the downside.  There is also talk that the next logical and psychological target for techs out there is 1700 because of the 200 daily ma which sits in that area.  The Weekly lower BB line is also approaching the 1700   We have not seen a positive divergence in the cash market but there is one forming in the futures (ES), and a possible wedging lower vs. the SPX cash.  All these puts us at a main trend that is still strongly to the downside.  The MT is used as the longer term trend, but can be off if volatility comes into play.  Therefore the ST should be used if you want to make the best of the low and high prices.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

60 Min.

Daily

Weekly

BONUS: GANN PRICE by DEG. Clustering under the slope

1750 - 1710

Be careful, we could accelerate down to the 1750 range or lower.  ES has broken its low,  Watch your indicators.

30 Jan 2014

The SPX made a run above the critical support line and pushed higher to end the day closed above the daily 75ma.  Todays move was bullish, and our ST have turned Bullish.  The only bearish implication is that its still in oversold range. 

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

The chart below still seems to be on track.  This will depend now on whether it breaks the 1800 and above which we have not reached yet in the cash market.

29 Jan 2014

The targets we were looking at for the SPX is at 1810 - 1800.  The 1800 target were hit during the afterhours in the futures (ES).  I don't know what this says about the cash, and whether it should also test these highs.  There area a few things to note at todays market move and Ben BernanQEs Fed talk.  The fact that they did more tapering might cause the market to rethink about who will be propping the markets if the last resort is not there anymore. 

The patterns seem to suggest that we are making a 5 wave move to the downside.  Whether that is done is not really a concern at this point, but a rally could just form a 2nd wave or a B wave.  This should be watched for the possibility of a impulsive move to the downside in a Wave 3 or C manner.  This also allows the cash market to push higher to test the 1800 range that the ES hit last night.  Again, theses are probabilities.  I do not think that we have seen a setup that pushes us to higher prices.

We are still holding the sentiment of a downtrend, although just by a few pts.  I was concerned that we might cross up and cause the ST to change up, but the shorts are safe, and we are also still in oversold position.  Acceleration is not out of the question, so patience is key if you are holding for more short profits.  We also manage to close under the red dotted line we spoke of numerous times in the past few days, and below the daily 75ma. We felt that it is an important support which only held for 2 days.  Today should be concerning and we are looking at 1750 at the least to make a 5th wave low before making a rally of sorts.  All I can say is, if you think it cant keep going.. it will.  Just like the bulls pushed prices up and seems to never end, so can the bears.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN (OS)
PA: DOWN

Prices need to close back above the daily 75ma.  The longer it is below the harder it is for a bull case.

Chart below shows the possible support at 1750 - 1740 as a best bull case scenario.

Here is an interesting take on the H&S I drew up over the weekend, which is still in play.  But I will add another possible pattern that could show itself in the near future.

or

28 Jan 2014

SPX managed to close above the Daily 75ma.  Something we were hoping for yesterday.  The 5min chart looks to be sporting a corrective rally.  I think we are still corrective and at its earliest end tomorrow.  The question is, if 1800 is the target or 1810.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

LAST WEEKENDS ANALYSIS

So far so good... But because of the downside momentum, prices could hit the target sooner or fail to reach the target.  I have a 1800 resistance area and will start to look at indications of a turn over to the downside.

27 Jan 2014

The support line we discussed last week that connects the major 2013 peaks proved to be important as we anticipated.  I would have liked for price to close above the 75ma on the Daily chart (1789.75), but it retraced by late afternoon closing below it.  This makes me believe that any movement above this might only be temporary.  The next level to look for is 1800 and 1815.  These are based on today's rally from the lows when projected forward would have us at (100% rally) = 1800, and (161.80% rally) = 1815.  I would like to see a rally to these targets but the momentum which is bias to the downside might alter these targets.  Our general trend is still DOWN.  So the trade should be to the downside.  Our Price Acceleration (PA) is also biased to the downside.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Our intra-day signal is to the UPSIDE, this is why I am expecting a rally to continue earliest tomorrow.  Once we hit the targets or near it we should start looking to see if our trends are still to the downside.  If they are, then there is a high probability of a push lower.

Todays low hit the weekly 20ma.  This is a good lesson on how to look for high probability targets.  The red dotted line below is resting within a few points of the weekly 20ma line, and the more indicator convergence the better the odds.  The lower targets to look for if price breaks the red dotted support would be the 200 DLY ma at 1702.06 presently, which is also where the Wkly lower BB is trending towards (currently at 1682.10).

24 Jan 2014

There are a bunch of things that happened today, and I will try to list them as much as I remember.  Prices convincingly broke down from the past low that we were indicating was important for Bears.  This has now become a minor resistance line.  Our ST is still in a downward position so there are still high possibilities of lower prices to come.  That said, the movement today is at oversold and I would expect a rally next week when signals come out of oversold.  This should alleviate the pressure and reset some indicators.  Todays close is a flat bottom candle and usually indicates a reversal, and it also closed just a few points above the Daily 75ma.  I always say that this is an important MA.  The next level if this breaks is the red dotted line that connects past highs made in 2013 (currently within the 1780 area).

The Daily 200ma is at 1700 and should be watched carefully if the markets melt and accelerates past our supports, it would mean a long way down if the red dotted line that connect these tops break.  It would mean a severe correction that could lead prices to the 1600 area. This 1600 is also the area where the support made by the 2000 top and the 2007 top meet at current time frame.

Focusing on the weekly charts we have to be concerned.  It has given us a few indications that this down turn could turn to something big.  First of is that we have come out of our overbought range and this is bearish for weeks to come unless our daily indicators could manage to push it back up.  Not only that, but we also have a definite cross on our MACD.  The last time this happened was in June and August when prices have already started trending lower.  The same is true now.

Things to note:
Wkly - 20ma = 1773
Wkly - Lower BB = 1669 = DLY 200ma @1701
Wkly - 75ma = 1598 to 1600

DLY - 75ma = 1788

We might have a few options in terms of EW and cycle CIT, but we should acknowledge  that our STs, and our MTs have done its job warning us of a down trending move as early as Thursday Jan 16th (actual top Jan 15th).  Sometimes the simple indications are the best signals.  I'm not saying that we are going to crash, but to be in the right direction gives us that piece of mind in the case that a melt occurs.  Past crashes have been pre-told by a few weeks or days, and none have dropped right from the top without warning.  So be aware of this, and we should look for a lower high to occur from now till March 2014 where some cycle analyst project a top to occur.  This top might just be a lower high, but we cant rule out a higher high to occur with a target of 1860 to 1890. We will let our trend tell us where we are.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: Neutral to Down

23 Jan 2014

The congestion we had yesterday has been broken.  Question now is if we continue going down.  While EW gives us numerous counts, we should take the time to eliminate some of these counts as we progress.  On a bullish note, prices have close above the 60min 200ma.  Although a 60min chart it still fairly important support.  This needs to break and prices need to stay below and continue to try to break the low made on the 13th of Jan. This would lead to a more bearish stance.  Right now this is still considered a corrective move for the past month.

MT: DOWN (Still OB)
ST: DOWN
PA: UP

 

1830 SPX is now a resistance area. Break upward and this bulls are back.  Stay below it and Bears are still in control.

22 Jan 2014

Prices and general markets remains sideways.  No highs and no lows. But we did end pretty much right where we opened and for a candle stick that would be a indecision.  We are still above the 60min 20 and 75ma.  From an EW perspective this looks like a corrective pattern from the highs, but we shouldn't be quick to label it as such until we break key price levels.  Currently our Support and resistance area have not been broken and our ST still remains Bearish although very weak.  Bias still would be for the downside unless we break the highs made on the 21st on the SPX.

MT: DOWN (Still OB)
ST: DOWN
PA: UP

Congestion of Moving Averages needs to decide on a trend.

21 Jan 2014

The highs made on the 15th is still intact.  Todays move up could be a measure of a minute degree Wave C (impulsive up).  This Wave C either finished a 2nd wave or a B wave which was then followed by another impulsive move down.  The move down can be classified either as a smaller degree 1st wave or a C wave to finish off a bullish 2nd wave (This would be followed by a 3rd wave impulse higher (not shown on chart).  There are numerous numbers of scenario, but since our ST turned down today we showed the possibility of counts that are in their down-trend. 

A higher low not breaching the 1815 range for the SPX would suggest that this is going higher.  Todays price was held together by the 60min 75ma at 1838.40 currently.

MT: DOWN (Still OB)
ST: DOWN
PA: UP

17 Jan 2013

There is still in play a higher high.  The patterns that has formed currently has the ability to turn itself into a corrective pattern which could signal higher highs.  We wont know if an impulsive move might continue next Monday if we truly have hit the top of the market.  The MACD did not break below the median line and the Stochastics did reach below the oversold but retracted before the day was over in the 60min chart.  Therefore anything is possible.

MT: DOWN (Still OB)
ST: UP
PA: UP

Our indicator suggest we are still up trending.

The chart below shows the patterns that are available to us.

WARNING WE ARE CLOSE... 16 Jan 2014

WARNING -  WE ARE CLOSE
The SPX seems to be forming out an EW 5 wave ending diagonal pattern with a characteristics of 3 wave moves in each wave.  We still have higher highs needed but I would suggest caution...

We also have a reactionary date according to  Cowan at Jan 18th as a 120 deg. between Jupiter and Saturn.  I would give this a couple of days +-...

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

The Current indicators are on an up-trend and should be followed with caution, but in order to make sure the pattern is correct we should look for a drop right after the 5th wave finishes its 3 wave pattern or its 5 wave ending diagonal in a minute degree.

All signs seem to point to a market that is topping.  How far we go down is still to be determined.  But for now... My Stochastics are negatively diverging on most time scales.

15 Jan 2014

ST turned up today, and made new highs.  EW counts are still not clear, but negative divergence are abundant.

MT: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
ST: UP
PA: UP

I will be adding to my future analysis a probability of PRICE ACCELERATION warning.  This warning will be in the direction of UP / DOWN or if left blank would mean that there is no volatility expected.

14 Jan 2014

I was expecting lower lows, but that didn't happen today.  ES looked like it was on a sideways trend, but right when it hit the overbought by the time market opened it just rocketed up.  Surprisingly though our ST is still on a downward trend.

MT: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
ST: DOWN

To Catch A Trader

TO CATCH A TRADER

13 Jan 2014

Last Friday I put up a 60min chart give scenarios of a bullish / bearish EW count.  Because our indicators were biased to the downside in the ST, we suggested our preference to be for a down trend and a possible target of the 200ma on the 60min chart.  Today that exact scenario happend.  Now we should look to see if we close below that 200ma on a daily chart to sustain a more pronounced down trend.  If we hold here then most likely this is just a correction.  Clues to look for are impulsive movement to the upside or a higher low would suggest this is going higher longer term.

MT: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
ST: DOWN

12 Jan 2014

I did something this weekend that is pretty intriguing and thought I would share my findings.

I started with 1st time fib at a significant high on the chart below on May of 2008.  From there I proceeded to place another time fib in a differentiating colour for better view at another significant turning point with a time Fib on it.  As I move forward in time I would see a cluster and place my next Fib. on those clusters and this is what I got.  So far the latest cluster hoovers around the Late Dec. 2013 to Early Jan. 2014.

10 Jan 2014

Price are still in a channel, and it is either in a wedge or a bear flag pattern.  There is a bullish and bearish EW count below to show some options for Monday.  Our ST have turned Bearish, so keep this in mind for Mondays session as the risk are to the downside.  There is a possibility that the 60min chart will move prices up in the early session then turn down eventually.  This scenario is what I prefer, but as we all know things can change over the weekend or overnight in Asia or Europe.

The prices are stuck between two of our up trending angles and more angles that are converging around it as well.  Is it running out of time?

MT: UP
ST: DOWN

 

 

I have included at the bottom a count that is (very possible) in that we would see new highs into next week.

 



9 Jan 2014

Momentum was weak today for the futures as well as the indexes.  Although we made a push up in the morning, we did not however see a sustained move higher.  What we did end up with throughout the day was a movement looking like a wedging pattern.  This usually follows with a continuation which in this case would be for more downside.  The EW options here would be for an ABC corrective or a more pronounced 1-2-3-4-5 pattern to the downside.  Our MT and ST remains on the uptrend so shorts should be cautious of their positions.

MT: UP
ST: UP

9 Jan INTRA

2pm:  Bias is still to the downside.

1pm: We will know if the downward push for the day has ended by 2pm.  A higher low intraday would also be a clue.

10am: ES still weak and still have a bias downward.

The ES is having a hard time trying to make a higher high, and the 60min chart suggest a downward bias. Be careful of any long sentiments as wave counts can put us in a possible B wave or 2nd wave of some sort.

 

8 Jan 2014

Seems prices are liking the support here between the 20 and 75 ma on the 60min chart.  Our ST has turned "UP".  Therefore there is a little more safety net to the upside.  Todays reactionary day didn't turn up anything, so the next one to watch is on the 12th of Jan Sunday possibly Monday (Trading day).

MT: UP
ST: UP

It is always the best Scenario when both trends are in agreement of each other.  But be reminded that if volatility kicks in, the Main Trend does tend to lag.

7 Jan 2014

Although prices have moved above the 20ma on the 60min chart, our ST still remains on the downside.  So caution should be taken to any upside trade.  Our Intra-Day Chart is also sporting a downside bias.

I mentioned in a previous post before the New Year that we should watch out for JAN. 8th and 12th for a reaction based on the Sq. of 144 time calculations.  There are also some Jan dates to watch for, but for now lets just see what happens on these dates.  Note that a higher high in price would bring the daily stochastics into a possible negative divergence.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN

6 Jan 2014

It seems we have closed at the 75ma of the 60min chart.  I mentioned last post that we would need to close below of the 75ma or above the 20ma of the 60min chart to give us a direction.  With both MA closing on each other it will be a hard call.  Hopefully we can see an impulsive move tomorrow.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN

Notice that our Short term trend is down.  The bias even though we have support is to the downside.  If this is the case and we should move lower we should look at the next lower angle line or the 200ma on the 60min chart as the next support.

3 Jan 2014

There were 2 distinct resistance for prices in the SPX.  These are the underside of our angle and the 20ma on our 60min chart.  Prices are sandwiched between the resistance and the support of the 75ma, therefore a break which way would prove to be the trend.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN

2 Jan 2014

Red day.  This is unheard of.. lol.  I guess first day back and some are taking some profits from that light volume run up.  We are expecting some sort of reversal to the downside within the first half of the month, so be aware of your long positions.

MT: UP
ST: UP