30 Sept 2014

The ST has turned up again as volatility is on a roll.  But my personal belief is that this is forming a sideways move that we talked about last Friday (Sept 26 post).  We are approaching the Oct 3rd date and things could happen sooner so be aware of things occurring to the downside.

The pattern to view right now is an abcde triangulating or a ii-wave pattern.  A ii-wave would have us push down tomorrow the earliest and would be considered very bearish.  If we have an abcde pattern, this would be bullish long term as abcde occur only in 4th or B-waves (Corrective).

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

29 Sept 2014

The ST has turned down, and as I have mentioned in my previous post, this is occurring due to volatility.  The mornings gap down when seen from the futures chart (ES) shows a 3 wave decline.  Therefore the rally up currently should be a corrective pattern (in 3 waves). We can label this a B wave when complete or a ii-wave.  We could end the rally here but since our 60min chart stochastics is still pointing up, we should allow for the morning session to progress before calling it an end to the rally.

As I have indicated, there is a risk of acceleration to the downside, and although we did not hold the morning lows it was still a pretty good sized drop.  This could happen again..

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

26 Sept 2014

The ST indicator has turned UP.  But overall the fact that the ST turned up was not surprising as volatility comes into play.  There is indeed tension in the markets and there are some who are watching very carefully on how the patterns develops in the next week to come.  The daily 75ma needs to be broken again to sustain any move lower, but the cycle analysts are looking for a low today so we could see just that as the ST turned UP.  The next critical date for some is the Oct 3rd or 6th, and since that is at the end of the trading week next week or beginning of the next.  I would assume from our count that a sideways pattern could emerge.  Mind you that these dates have to be marginalized with  +/- a day or so, and that any EW pattern suggested are just an opinion.

If the market breaks, there will be no support until the 1920-1900 area.  Since we are in Bear Mode, we should be aware of this scenario.  It is times like these where you have to say to yourself which time frame to trust or follow.  But it is in the investors preference really.

My rule is that I am always playing the direction of the ST since it fits my trading style, and based on that direction I have to look at the trends of the lower time frames and trade in that direction as well.  I know the market is at a high right now and since the ST is on an UP Trend, I will be sitting it out until it turns.  Note that the MT is on the down trend as well.  So this should solidify which side we need to be on even if its a lagging indicator.  Sitting out does not lose anyone money...

I have included this link to what CRAMER was saying on the 24th (Wed.) not because I believe in his B$hit, but more of what the common investors are thinking right about now..  So what happened to the market?  As you know yesterdays drop was a pretty good one, so you can look at this on a day to day basis or a medium to long-term basis, but if you don't know your trend then you will surely be lost or losing money... Too BULLISH and so much BULL$H!T.  Don't predict but react to the market.


MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

25 Sept 2014

PA indicator has been a good warning sign of where the impulsive and acceleration will occur and in which direction.  It may not be as early as we want but it gets the job done along with the MT and ST when combined.

Todays move might be the end of a corrective wave or a start of a more severe wave down.  We would get more confirmation as patterns develop of course.. If the SPX sustains more pressure tomorrow the acceleration will get more intense, so keep this in mind if you are trying to buy a bottom.  As our ST remains bearish so will we...

Today's close is also important that it closed below the Daily 75ma, which is now the support/resistance zone.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

 

As the markets develop today, I have come to a few options of what it could bring near term along with the dates provided by Andre ( a poster on Solarcycles.net).

1.  The waves are patterned as a 3 wave, which could be just that.. Corrective and a new impulsive move up should occur. (BULLISH).

2.  The 3 waves is not a 3 wave but more like a 1-2, I-(ii still to form)  (BEARISH).

3.  The 26th is said to be a low, and it could be if we make the final morning move lower and bounce to end the wave-i.  Wave-ii should then begin.

4.  Since we have a next trade date along the Oct. 3-5th  period, I would then assume from our analysis that wave-ii would end then and would have to move sideways for next week before the end of week accelerative drop for a wave-iii.

5. This is the third option and is bullish longer term.  Since we are looking for higher highs to end the year, we would need to evaluate the current wave as an abc for (wave-A).  This would then be followed by an abc for (wave-B).  The next would be another leg lower that starts on Oct 3rd - 6th for an accelerated move lower and bottom by Oct 10th.

6.  That said, Wave-A would = Wave-C or 161.8% as a wave C alternative of wave-A, so once we have a complete wave for us tomorrow, we can then look at a possible ending target for Wave-C and project the 100% - 161.8% to find the ending of Wave-B.

24 Sept 2014

The SPX has managed to retrace the current run down by 50%.  The futures chart clearly shows a 3 wave move up, but not in the cash market.  With the market still in bearish mode the risk is still to the downside.  One thing to note here is that prices have moved above both the MAs of 75 and 200 in the 60min chart.  Also it has moved back above the green dotted line that we were calling a critical area.  We should watch to see if this will be broken again tomorrow.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

23 Sept 2014

The Bearish Mode we posted last night is a way for us to gauge our risk either to the upside / downside.  The market sentiment you see to the right shows us the current direction of the market and where impulsive momentum occurs.  In this case, to the downside.  This is also confirmed by our PA which is to the downside.  It does not mean we do not have impulsive moves up.  It just means there are greater chances of it happening to the downside.  So which side would you like to be on?

When indicators and sentiments are in SYNC, we tend to see the powerful moves.  So remember this and you should be able to tell when they are about to occur.

The markets broke yesterdays critical line, which was supported by a uptrend line (Marked by the dotted green line) and the 200ma on the 60min chart.  By not being able to hold price above the line, we can see who is in charge at the moment.  EW counters miss out on these runs as well because they believe they can time the market.  A quick gap down changes all that.  At times there are hidden counts as well that we cannot see because of those gaps and prevent a more accurate (LOL) count.

It is why we need to follow a timeline trend, whether Short, Medium, or Long-Term.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

BEARISH MODE

We have entered "Bearish" mode...

22 Sept 2014

Art Cashin released an observation he had during his career in the Stock Market.  I felt it was a good read and at the same time unbelievable.  It goes in line with what we see in our current market as well.  For those who think that this is just Horse$.. Pay no attention to it.

Markets continued its down trend for the 2nd day.  Our ST has also turned south with an EW pattern looking like a 5 wave decline.  Last Friday I mentioned we have hit our ideal target and was only off by a few decimal points.  If this is so we should start seeing a decline in an impulsive manner with an acceleration to the downside.  How far it will go is still to be determined.  The possibilities of a draw down can reach as far as 1725.  This of course is the worst case scenario, unless we really crash hard which some cycle analysts are forecasting.  We should always be prepared for anything UP or DOWN.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

19 Sept 2014

Thanks Stockcharts for screwin' with my data.

Well market again was at its best.  Good news all around and IPO launch of the century.  Accelerations are working and sentiments are as well.  We have reached our target short of  .14 points.  Otherwise, nothing much to add to this blog for Friday.  One thing to note is that the Daily Candle has pierced the Upper BB line and has made a red candle reversal Doji.  Did I also mention that we have the tightest BB band we have seen in a long time..  Well now I have..

We also have a negative divergence playing out so I guess this is not at all a boring type of analysis for the end of the week.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

18 Sept 2014

SPX has finally established new highs.  I guess the sentiments out there is that Scotland might be sticking to England after all.  Even the pound has been pushed up by traders pending factual news of course.. LOL.  The ST is still sporting an up trend, therefore nothing has changed for the indexes march higher.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

 

17 Sept 2014

There are implications of a "Failed 5th" here.  So I would be careful of the positions.  With tomorrow being the separation issue in Europe, It would not be out of the question to see volatility set in.  That said, the ST is in an up trend. 

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP (Neg. Divergence) could negate the upward acceleration tomorrow.

16 Sept 2014

The idea here is that we should be seeing higher highs coming soon.  There is a bearish count that could stop the progress to new highs but it needs to be proven first by breaking the lows made yesterday and not exceeding the highs made early September.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

Bullish:

Bearish:

15 Sept 2014

The SPX has been stuck between the lower trendline of the wedge and the longer term rising trendline (Green Dotted Line).  I have adjusted the price to drop to the 200ma of the 60min chart.  There has been talk between me and another person about the target of 2016 SPX Pts. as a high.  With this 200ma target of a bottom, we can arrive at the target of 2016 pts by having Wave 1 (blue) = Wave 5 (blue).  Of course we should still follow our ST which has been working great.  I am also changing our Market Sentiment from Bullish to Recession Warning.  As you can see with our 2nd chart, you should be worried if it crosses below the 50 once again.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

60min:

Recession Warning:

12 Sept 2014

Wave e, was adjusted to the lower trendline of the wedge pattern.  This still fits our corrective phase and would look to higher moves.  Whether the move to higher highs is a 5th ending wave remains to be seen as EW is ever changing.  Our ST remains to be to the downside and has not changed.  Even though I believed that higher prices are to come, the ST kept us in check of what the trend currently stands.  So my trades are only done when my sentiments and my analysis are in sync.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

The Bearish alternative is that of what I spoke of the last few days.  The sub-division of those waves are the only way the bearish alternative works.  Until then, the overlapping nature of the pattern should be treated as corrective before a resumption towards new highs.

11 Sept 2014

The pattern so far from the lows has been looking like a 3 wave rally.  This usually fits a corrective phase, but we could be counting a pattern that's not yet done.  A lower low for me could count as an ABCDE if we form some sort of wedging pattern.  This would put the count at a finished 4th wave and a higher high should ensue. 

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

10 Sept 2014

The intra-day chart shows prices are in an uptrend at the moment.  The momentum would need to stay on that sentiment to change our ST back to UP.  As it stands the trend on the ST is still down.

There is an EW bearish count but its not easy to follow because of its multiple sub division, so I decided not to label it for now.  If we are to break lower tomorrow and the rally stalls then the possibility of these 1-2, I-II, i-ii becomes increasingly plausible.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

 

I posted a chart on one of the forums and thought I would share it here with no comment other than what's on the chart...  Price of gasoline on first chart is in CAD Dollar but it does not matter...



9 Sept 2014

The ST has turned down and even though I think that we could still rise, I think it best not to fight the trend change.  If in the event it changes back up with volatility then we must adjust our positions.  In no way does an indicator lie or deceive investors...  Whipsaws are just part of the market and one must go with the flow.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

8 Sept 2014

Our stance has not changed and I am expecting higher highs.  Nothing in my analysis suggest otherwise.  I do believe that a top of sort is near and a CIT should occur, but for now we wait till that happens before we execute any sell / short order. 

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

5 Sept 2014

So far the SPX is keeping to its plan of moving higher.  I do believe its not over, but time is getting narrower and narrower for any kind of long side advantage.  There are a few dates to keep in mind for a CIT For Sept. (7th, 11th, 21st, and 27th).  Lets watch this for  clues to where and the market wants to turn.  Hopefully our EW will also be in sync or match the sentiments.  These dates were mentioned by D. Ferrera, so I am sharing these with you to hopefully bring more people to the awareness of cycle study.  I myself am just a rookie compared to many out there, but I am very intrigued by it nonetheless.  What I learn from it, I use in different ways, and so far things have been working based on the results on this blog.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

4 Sept 2014

As a reminder from yesterdays post.. Today we saw another push to higher highs, and a mid morning to afternoon sell-off.  It's not something you see often but when you see it you know why all the billionaires are stepping to the sidelines.  Even a dog can see this comin'..

Dogonit'

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

3 Sept 2014

The impulsive move to higher highs on a daily basis has closed on a negative.  Can we repeat this pattern of higher highs in the morning then give back some by mid to late afternoon?  The consolidation have been up to sideways, and I can't really say which EW pattern we are in.  But I am still suggesting that the current moves in prices in the SPX is corrective and that higher high should proceed.  We would need to exit the overbought signal to consider a pattern break to the downside.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

2 Sept 2014

Markets are decisively UP with no indication of a top.  We only see at this point an overbought market that has potential to accelerate higher.  An EW 4th wave could still be forming and a typical show and tell of one is a sideways consolidation.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP