30 Nov 2014 - Weekend Update..

28 Nov 2014 - Mini Me?

The market has closed, and seems to look weak and hinting a change in trend.  Our SPX indicator is still UP, but the Russell ST has turned DOWN.  Lets see if it will foretell the outcome of the SPX in the near future.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

So what are the results after the post below at 11:30am?

11:30am
I thought I would share the 5min chart of the SPX with you today which is forming a smaller and similar pattern to our daily chart.  So will wee see a move lower on our next CIT in this manner?  In theory a mega-phone pattern would have us end up with a impulsive move lower.

5 Minute:

 

 

Daily: Showing a potential pattern move...

26 Nov 2014 - Still Corrective You See.. Part Duh!!!

I expected a low volume day from the market, and prices stayed stagnant to up.  We see a corrective nature to the current price movements, and can see a lower push lower on the next trading day.  This would however be part of a corrective phase even if there is an impulsive move lower.  I gather that it is not a CIT. 

That being said, I have included an article by ZeroHedge below regarding the markets disconnect #RidEQulous ness.  Even if markets are bullish, I do not know if I would want to play the long position without a significant correction from this recent move from the Oct 15 lows.

Aside from that though, my analysis of the market is unbiased and technical readings are still UP...

MT: UP
PA: UP
ST: NA

60 Minute:

1 Minute:

ZeroHedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-26/madness

25 Nov 2014 - Still Corrective You See..

Although markets made a higher high, we could still be in a corrective phase.  That said, a top is nearing.  Question now is if the top is a short-term or minimal top or a significant one.  The indicators will eventually be the tell.  The lower peak in our overbought market has formed which led me to this analysis that a top is near.  At this point the intra-day time frames are still the driving force of any downtrend and thus a short or no evident of a sustained correction to note.

Yes this blog is pretty boring since I have made alterations on how to inform my readers, but it is what it is. UP until it tells us otherwise.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

24 Nov 2014 - Still on the UP Side..

Prices are positive but considered pretty stagnant.  The 1min chart below could be a possible Wave count for the Bears that would see lower prices.  There are a few options, but right now any move lower is only considered a correction until our main trend starts to turnover as well.

Levels to watch on the SPX is the 2050 to 2040 level short-term support.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

1 Minute:

60 Minute:

21 Nov 2014 - A 5 Minute Fuelled Day

Todays move was brought to you by the 5Min chart.  Although I feel short-term bearish at the moment, the indicators have not shown itself to be changing in any trend.  This could change next week as the 1min chart pattern breakdown looks to have a corrective rally from 1:30pm to close.  It can only be confirmed next Monday unfortunately.  Is this the top?  The ST doesn't seem to think so..

The PA indicated last night that we would accelerate up again and it has done that, and to new ATH... Again.  There are no long-term charts out there that can give us a definite clue to a turn around so "bears" need to be patient or play a small qty. long on any weakness.

I do not know if this is the top of the market, but based on Fib. retracements the lines look a bit awkward where they sit, so it looks like we will have to wait for this to be answered as well.  The intra-day chart seem to have pushed prices lower but have moved back to an uptrend by close.  This is important as we figure out which timeframe is driving prices and how long they would last. Based on my analysis, the 5Min chart was in control of todays market moves.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

One thing to note is that todays "Daily Candle" is sporting a reversal candle.

1 Minute chart:

60 Minute chart:

20 Nov 2014 - Intra-Day Correction Call

The price action today was a good example of what a 60min correction feels like.  We don't know how long it would last but usually with this type of time frame, we can look at a few hours to a day or two.  It is important that we know which timeframe prices are moving or how long the counter trend would last. Only when two time frames overlap would it be extended to the other timeframe (This is what I call in SYNC with each other).

I am inclined to look at prices making a new high based on the fact that my indicators are also in the up position which is in sync with each other.  The ST is still well and alive and nothing to say otherwise.  The timeframe of a top for cycles are still within range, but it seems like it will be on the latter end of that time range forecasted by most analysts, unless we accelerate higher.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

19 Nov 2014 - 60 Min Correction..

I believe we are entering a 60 minute corrective move.  For most this doesn't mean anything, but based on my analysis a 60min correction means that we would correct for a few hours to days.  This would then be proceeded by a rally.  If we do see a change in our indicator, it would change the corrective move to a longer time frame.  But for now an uptrend still exists...  So patience is what is needed here for the bears.  For the longs, tomorrow could mark a turning point for a nice profit taking if the ST turns down and we get some nice impulsive signals.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

18 Nov 2014 - Still Higher Highs..

Yesterdays comment about the alleviation of the OB by time has manifested itself today.  Prices moved higher after a week of consolidating moves.  So far though I do not have any good news or indication of a top for my Bearish readers, at least not convincingly.  But going back to my important charts last night I feel compelled to feel bearish with the expectations that a move down will be strong and impulsive.  But my feelings need to be reinforced and validated, and without the indicators saying so, I am really just speculating of what could happen.  I am not smarter than the market, so we should respect its intentions instead of 2nd guessing it.

As for the H&S pattern, the higher high prices printed today negated this as I have talked about in last nights post.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

17 Nov 2014 - 2040 Still Holding.. For Now.

Time cycle analysts are looking to these couple weeks starting today as a potential time window for a CIT.  Therefore, one must be cautious on their long position and to watch for a signal, if one is not already.  I am seeing more divergence now than before when people were calling for tops all the way up to current levels.  This does not mean we are or have found a top, but it is a warning that a potential pullback is possible.

The H&S is still intact and prices seems to hover at the 2040 level only to suggest that time alleviates overbought conditions and can push higher negating the H&S. 

There are no changes on the indicator which keeps the Bullish notion alive.  With all these zigzagging going on it is hard to label any EW counts, and at this point in time it is not that important.  Recognizing a corrective pattern VS. an impulsive one is much more important.  For those who have basic knowledge of EW, I would encourage them to put more analysis / emphasis on these two characteristic moves.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

14 Nov 2014 - Head & Shoulders

One can see the H&S on a 60min time frame.  Therefore on a 60min basis, my target is SPX 2020 (Corrective Target).  We would need to confirm a break of the neckline before considering a H&S a strong success. Due to my indicators not having any urgency in approaching any move lower, I can only speculate that any push lower is just a correction.  Of course the ST has not changed its stance as well.  The rally as we expected from the last few days is waning and even though it can make a higher high, prices are exhausted, and it's evident of a curving / rounding price pattern.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

13 Nov 2014 - End Of Day Ramp...

Seems markets are being held up at the end of every trading day.  Bears are calling for a top, and looking premature without any confirming indicators.  We could well be, but it doesn't hurt to at least let it play out some more.  Near term any support would be in the 2020 area indicated by a trend line and the 60min 75ma (see below).

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

12 Nov 2014 - Corrective Feeling...

The last few days have been agonizing since price has not moved up or down.  To me it is what a corrective feels like, and I suppose prices will make a new high as well.  Our ST has not turned and nothing in the smaller time frame has indicated a start of a move lower.  It wold be more like watching paint dry on a wall for bears, who wish that there would be at least a correction to get out of their positions.  I feel though that they will have to wait a little longer.  With the exuberance in the market, those correction might be hard to come by and keep it at elevated levels.  The question if you are short is, how long can you hold it for.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

11 Nov 2014 - CURRENT MARKET

So far the prices looked to be waning and curling over.  But we are still in OB territory so we must at least let it come out of it before we can try to see a short opportunity.  One thing to note is that the daily 200ma is moving higher day by day, and at this rate any correction in prices would have a high probability of retracing down to the 1920 - 1930 level.  My reason behind it is that based on the current analysis and given that prices won't just drop from here.  I speculate that the 200 daily MA, and the Fib. 50% line on the 60min chart will meet each other.  The other not so bearish retracement would be the 38.2% which currently is hosting the 75MA of the 60min chart.  These two are more likely, but not the only available level to watch as the 61.8% is also hosting the "Price Gap".  Again this is speculation, and I would not act on the analysis until I have at least an ST to back up my targets.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

Mid-day analysis:

So far the market has been behaving or sporting similar indications of a top that was also made in 2007.  Will we get the same?  Just some info to think about...

10 Nov 2014 - 2041?

I have extend the Fib lines to 2041 for the next possible higher price target.  The last target we had was just a short-term stopping point and has now resumed an upward move.  I am guessing that we are closing in on a top, but would not be able to tell until we get some sort of indication from our ST.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

7 Nov 2014 - More Consolidating

Price movements are sideways and the indicator has not moved in any way that would warrant me to get rid of long positions.  At this point it is toppy, but still has a higher probability of higher prices to come.  I know this is not what the Bears would like to hear but it is what it is.  This is why we cant really speculate on the turning points until we have a solid confirmation or at least one that gives us a better chance on succeeding in our trades.  Unfortunately for those like me, I will have to wait 2 days twiddling my thumb.   The SPX has managed to put in higher prices since yesterday.  I said last night that I would extend the FIB lines if I see a clear move up.  So far though, it is just a pierce and nothing significant to have us stretch the lines, so the support and resistance level is safe for now.  Being that price had a hard time moving up today. It would also raise the possibility of an evident resistance level on a intra-day basis.

MT: UP
PA: UP
ST: UP

6 Nov 2014 - Is This It For Now?

A few analysis back, I extended the fib. ratio up to which point the retracement would fulfill a support and resistance based on prices that have formed previously.  This is my way of working backwards and has worked at times.  We have been inching up and so far this target of 2031 has been met with all retracements sitting on price resistance and support area.  If we do start to turn down, the probable level to watch is the 38.2% near 1950.  If price do exceed higher tomorrow I will see if it's just an overthrow or a clear continued up move in which I would have to move the Fib. line higher as well.  Based on our 60min chart, the 38.2% level sits on our 200ma.  On a daily chart, the same 1950 level is the 50% of the BB line also known as the 20day MA.  Clearly a nice spot to park prices at.

Currently nothing has changed with our CIT indicators or sentiment.  But our market sentiment of BEARISHNESS will change this week if prices do not reverse hard and at this point that is looking likely that a BULLISH sentiment will be signalled by weeks end.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

 

Note:  One thing to mention is that if prices continue higher the probability of it moves to the 2068 level where it would stretch the FIB. 61.8% to the 200 DAY MA support.  The 38.2% will also be stretched to the 1973 level where it shows a few price support and resistance formed during late Sept. and early Oct. (also near the Daily Charts 75ma). This scenario would make prices pierce or touch the upper BB line before reversing which is currently at 2062.

 



5 Nov 2014 - Positive Response

Change is in the air.  There were positive response to yesterdays blog and great to have those on board the blog site.  I hope to make the experience simpler and stress free for both advanced and intermediate trader / investor.  The charts will also be simpler and I will continue to post the direction and momentum of our trends.

I have added on the side bar a link for members to join.  Please feel free to join us.

The markets have lost the momentum to the upside, but that does not mean that we are done going up to higher highs.  The ST is still clearly on an UP-TREND.. Therefore we must stay the course.  I have also updated the chart to reflect the *NEW* MT. So this is to remind us that we should be trading with the trend.  I will also be limiting the EW analysis to better serve everyone who might get confused with too much information, but it also does not mean it will disappear altogether.  Any feedback is welcomed of course. 

As much as our ST has done well so far through this uptrend, I feel however that the market should pull back at least before resuming a bull run that many now are calling for.  Therefore, we should look for the ST to signal to us a turn sooner than later.  This has been a good run and should have some traders taking profits on partial positions..

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

4 Nov 2014 - Still UP.. No DOWN

My analysis is simple.  "What you see is what you get".  Speculation is not considered a bad thing, but we need to minimize the risk until we can confirm it.  So, until I see the confirmation I'm not going to put in too much belief that it would go one way or the other.  If there is no signal then the best way to look at things is to just stay with the current trend or be on the sideline waiting for the best move possible.  Remember, its not the quantity of trades, its the quality of those trades.

So far the ST is still LONG the market from 1870.  Where do you get a signal like that from other blogs and free at the same time?.  True, our ST can whipsaw at times but that's just the nature of things when you have high volatility.  This is why traders and investors should learn to analyze what a short-term trend is doing and which direction  and when an acceleration might occur.  People ask why we have the MT when it is lagging.  Our response is that it can show us the higher probability of a longer term trend direction.  But I have to admit though that the MT has been the none relevant indicator since I started to post these signals.  Therefore there will be changes coming that could refine its effectiveness.  But there is a catch.  Over the past 2 years, I have been viewing the traffic by numbers, but not subscribers.  I am amazed by how many traffic flows through here, but I have not seen many who subscribe.  Its free folks... So take a bit of time and subscribe.  Otherwise I will keep the MT signal reliability to myself or delete it from my blog.  Everyone who I have been in contact with has seen the good that comes out of my blog and often times, the signals are good.  Just look at Oct 17th when our ST went BULLISH...  Where there any blogs calling an Up-trend granted it was 2 days from the bottom?

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

1870 SPX Pts. - Current 2012 SPX Pts. = 142 Pts.

Last ST CIT - Oct 7 @ 1960 Trending Down to ST Oct 17 @ 1870 = 90 Pts.

3 Nov 2014 - Are We There Yet?

There is a possibility that there will be another push higher to 2031.54 SPX.  By reaching this far, we can position the Fib. 50% just below the two bottoms made in early Oct. and the minor bottom made last week at the 1925 level.  This is of course speculation, but we are trying to see a possible match to a retracement level and often times using this type of forecast can be a smart way to confirm your analysis.  Again... Speculation.  We are still on an ST Uptrend and no vast divergence in sight that every other blog seems to suggest, other than the MACD's. 

Judging from the sentiment we have on the right side of this blog (BEARISH).  Any impulsive move down would in fact show a divergence in sentiment.  Therefore we must watch carefully to see if this is so.  Divergence in this instance would be a bearish move of over a few weeks.  But lets not get ahead of ourselves and stick with our indicators.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP