Reset Risk Reward Signals

Many of you who read my blog on a consistent basis know about the "Reset" scenario that I speak about.  Starting today, I will indicate on the 60 minute chart if there is a high chance a "RESET" is occurring and in which direction the probabilities of price movement will be.  This signal is not bullet proof, but it raises the odds heavily in its favour.  These "RESETS" are also fallible only during volatility as is many, including our own indicators we use so there is nothing new here.

These "RESET SIGNAL"  will help those looking for a better entry point when one is not able to get in at the right time.  This I am sure has happened to everyone and who are afraid of chasing only to see prices ramp up or free fall leaving many of us sitting on the sidelines or riding the losses down with it.  Hopefully this will help clarify the analysis on a daily basis.  The EW analysis will be scaled down in hopes of less clutter and confusion which does not reduce the risk anyhow.  These signals are inline with my time-frame analysis theory and does not divert from my overall work.  What I am trying to accomplish here is a system that provides fast,easy, and no bullshit analysis, where if someone cannot make a solid decision, all they have to do is look at where the bias is likely to occur.

This is not a solicitation to trade, but a tool to guide your own trading strategy or system.

You will notice the green and red arrows on the chart below that triggered during price action signalling either a bottom or top.  These signals do not often occur at ultimate bottoms, as this requires multiple studies, but I am hoping that if a trend has started (ST), then we would look for opportunity or biases based on that ST trend.

Note: The SPX monthly bar is in good reversal form.  This suggest that if the bar holds true then we should get a down turn for at least a month and possibly longer if price persist in the downward fashion.  The weekly is not bearish at all and this must be in sync with the monthly chart to see any strong moves.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R:  Apr 28th Down

New Blog Signal Added

BIG update will happen from today forward to give readers an even better signal. More detail at EOD analysis..

Note: SPX has entered HIGH RISK for intra-day acceleration to DOWNSIDE.  Caution must be taken.

28 Apr 2016 - Basing.. A Success

The basing pattern I mentioned yesterday and the possible scenario played out today.  Not only did price push to make a lower low, but it also supported near the 200 moving average of the 60 minute chart I indicated yesterday.  We are still trending downwards so we will see if there are any follow through lower past today's bottom support.  Perhaps we will see the 200 day MA reached eventually, but keep in mind that our long-term time frames are not looking bearish as of yet, so I would only call this push lower as a temporary down turn until we can confirm through an OS signal or bearish sentiment.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note The ES is showing a positive divergence in its intra-day chart, therefore we can expect a rally of sorts followed by a push lower based on our ST signal.

27 Apr 2016 - Basing

The word of the day is "Basing".  The ES from last Wednesday's high has been doing just that and with the SPX also sporting a 3 wave pattern up from this Mondays lows.  The scenario here is for prices to surpass Mondays low, and perhaps tag the 200 MA on the 60 min. chart at 2065 SPX range. This would be in SYNC with our ST sentiments as well.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

25 Apr 2016 - Non Eventful Down Day

ST still down trending regardless of the rally back to almost unchanged.  The 200 moving average in the 60 min. chart is now inline with the blue dotted trend line and should serve as support if price is seen going down.  The ES today seemed to show a nice break to the downside but instead closed with the signals back up above the 200 moving average of the hourly chart.  It seems that the ES is very comfortable just wallowing around the 200 hourly moving average.  As seen in previous charts, it has been the status quo for quite some time.

There needs to be a conviction of bearish bias once price breaks the 200 line or else it will just be the usual intra-day activity of buy the dips.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

22 Apr 2016 - Beginning Of The End?

Is this the start of the down phase?  ST did turn down today and came out of OB.  This should be some good signs for bears to close out the week regardless of the bounce at the end of the day.  Prices remained supported by the 75 MA on the 60 min. chart.  Any push lower should find support on the 200 day MA as a test.  The intra-charts are not yet bearish, but as long as the ST is down, risk is favouring the down side.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

21 Apr 2016 - Party Like It's 1999

Today is a reminder of how fast time is going by.  When celebrities from your memorable youth has passed it is hard to ignore the sign that life is telling us to make something of ourselves or that we live life happily as possible.  Once we are 6 ft. under, only the immediate family will remember us.  The world however doesn't skip a beat.

This is also true about the markets.  We can lose thousands even millions, but the market doesn't care and keeps on going about their ways.  It's a hard reality, but sometimes we just have to follow the herd that doesn't trend towards a cliff.

Prince made the song called "1999" and party the markets did.  Now with his passing, maybe it's another signal that this cycle is ending or has ended as well.  Food for thought.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA

20 Apr 2016 - Nice Daily Reversal Candle

The SPX is sporting a reversal candle, and while that may be a compelling trade to go short, our ST remains elevated and UP.  Any speculation trade here should be in a smaller sized trades until signals gets out of the OB situation the market is currently in.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

Prices also remains inside a wedging pattern, and makes a strong case for a trade if prices breaks the lines.

19 Apr 2016 - Closing The Deal

Closing the 2100 SPX.  Is this the real deal?  For now it is, and negative divergence is still intact.  My EW senses that this move from its Feb. lows is a C-wave of B and should see a push lower to finish off this prolonging 4th wave pattern.  Fits with the sideways attitude for the past couple of years.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

18 Apr 2016 - Is The Elevator At The Top Floor?

The intra-charts seem to suggest and EW 5 sub-wave has formed, but it won't be confirmed unless prices falls below 2030 range just under the green (wave 4 ).  Then a test of the 200 day moving average.  These supports should be important in some capacity.  A price with no reaction to these levels would leave me perplexed and highly worrisome.

Everything else is highly elevated and OB.  Signals are negatively diverging though so depending on the time-frame you follow, I would suggest pulling the trigger once that signal exits its extreme reading (long or short).  This strategy would protect against volatile moves, similar to what we saw today with price starting the day negative only to be reversed quickly and close in extreme positive value.  Whatever you may say or think to try to explain this so called manipulation can be explained with one word using my analysis.. OB..

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

15 Apr 2016 - Week Ending Bull

Looking at the weekly chart, it is evident that we are in a bull run.  This long weekly bar not only erased last weeks red bar, but also made a higher high.  The weekly is now in OB territory and should have us on a look out for clues to turn a round this market.  The longer this stays OB the higher prices is likely to push ultimately to ATH as time progresses.

Forget about the bad news you are hearing or reading out there.  This is proof that consistently following basic indicators are much more reliable and highly probable of outcome vs hearsay.  For all those who say that indicators lag and can never notify early enough.  The question should be asked, how much more accurate is speculation vs a lagging indicator.  We are talking about probabilities of success through technical signals as compared to gut feeling or emotional bias.

As of today's ending market, we have still an OB reading in our intra-charts despite a negative day.  This does not change the ST where it currently sits in the UP position.  PA also remains to the upside risk.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

Notice the UPPER BB line of the weekly chart above.  This would be the weekly target for a possible ceiling or reversal point.  With elevated reading in the Stoch. One cannot rule out hysteria of price movement.  I did not say hysteria in trader or investor sentiment, but price.  There is a big difference here.  Clearly the sentiment in the community is bearish.  Nothing but bad news after bad news while markets climb.  So don't lose your head trying to figure out a reason for why prices are moving in such a bullish trend while the global economy is in dire state.  Not even AAPL can sway markets down regardless of their haircut on iPhone production.

14 Apr 2016 - Triple Divergence

A triple divergence with a hint of a reversal doji today.  It would be prudent to wait for a reset if you want to go long.  While there is a chance of a higher high in price to come, the best place is to sit and wait.  I am waiting for an intra-day divergence that has not occurred yet.  This signal or a signal that pushes out of OB would be my exit point.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

13 Apr 2016 - Exceedingly Clear

Yesterday's blog post suggested new highs a high possibility and today we exceeded the early Apr. high.  This was brought about with the ST turning UP yesterday.  These signals are also in sync with many of the bullish indicators such as the PA and SEN trackers.  Add the weekly and monthly characteristics discussed at months end of March.

A wave-C could surpass the early Nov. 2015 high and still be valid as an a-b-c as a bearish wave-2.  The ATH price made in May 2015 needs to stay intact if wave-2 is to prevail.  However, a bearish stance can still be had if the ATH is exceeded.  This would label a possible correction pattern as a larger B-wave.  These are all possible theories, and the bullish one of course does not need any explanation for its ATH revision.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP

12 Apr 2016 - Will This Be The Push High?

The ST has turned back up today tuning the last couple of weeks into a game of cat and mouse.  Notice that the ST has been clustering pointing out that a larger move should happen sooner than later.  I wrote about these clustering a few months back, but in general the ST should be followed in this non-directional market which will eventually reveal itself.

There are a few who already have gotten skewered calling a top meanwhile the longer term is still OB which lends itself to a risky upside bias.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA:  UP

11 Apr 2016 - Love Triangle

There could be a triangle forming in the intra-charts, but cant be really sure until it breaks above the blue dotted line above.  The patterns from the highs initially presented some impulsive moves, but since then prices have been choppy and range bound.  Characteristics of triangle consolidating moves.  Bearish if it falls below the 60min 200 moving average and Bullish if it pushes above 2070 in the SPX.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

8 Apr 2016 - Monthly Squeeze

There is not much to add to the immediate term price moves other than the price whipsawing above and below the 200 moving average in the ES.  This has been going on since Monday, but price did end the week below the moving average which is bearish.  On a longer-term view, I wanted to point out if it hasn't been already that the BB lines on the monthly chart are squeezing into a narrow band.  The last time this happened and at much more extreme is in 1994-1995.  Prices in the SPX accelerated furiously for 5 years into the 2000 bubble.  I'm not saying that we would rally the same way as back then, but we would be foolish to think that price action will just continue to move by a few percentage up and down.  Now will be a good time to be aware of a possible run-a-way market move.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Since the indicators are not in SYNC with each other, I would sway on making any trades long or short until we get some good cohesion between the ST and the PA at the least.

Overnight Update

There is a acceleration down risk for tomorrow as the indicators enter OS, but the longer-term percentage of stocks above the 50 MA is still very bullish.  This means that signal must stay OS for a prolonged period of time for bears to sustain the move lower.  If the indicator turns back up and out of OS then we could witness a move to new ATH for the foreseeable future.  This is a "Reset" condition.

7 Apr 2016 - Break

Once again, the 200 MA in the ES hourly chart has been broken as made aware in yesterdays post.  With today's move into OS with the intra-charts, we were able to see the acceleration down as well.  There is no positive divergence and prices in the SPX has produced a lower low which suggest that lower prices should follow.  Again, the 200 day MA will be the resting point as it finds out how strong this support will be.  As can be seen below, the 60 minutes 200 moving average also within the range.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

6 Apr 2016 - Re-test Is Normal

I'm considering todays rally as a corrective wave shown below on the 15min chart.  This re-test also shows price approaching the underside of the blue dotted trend line resistance.  Ideally, tomorrow should push price lower, but need to be aware of a possible extension to the corrective pattern.  A move of the intra-charts into OS condition will negate the risk of corrective sub-waves so watch for this signal.

The immediate support for me is the 200 day MA which has not also been met with the 60 minutes 200 MA (seen on the 60min chart).  A true CIT on an EW point of view is to see a full 5 wave count down which means the likelihood that the 200 day MA would get broken.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: While I have not shown today' ES chart, prices have moved back above the 200 MA on the hourly.  If supported holds then a corrective pattern will be voided.  I expect it to be broken again with the ST in my favour.  Currently the 200 MA value of the ES stands at 2044.96 dynamically.

5 Apr 2016 - Clu-ES 200

The hourly chart in the ES I had provided yesterday is updated below, and has moved below the 200 moving average for the 1hr chart.  Certainly prices needs to push back above or else price will top out below this moving average on a short-term basis.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

4 Apr 2016 - Keeping The Cards Close To The Chest

While markets are still keeping its real intentions hidden from us, the world has been witness to the vast corruption and evasion of past and present politicians, oligarchs, and the uber wealthy all over the world.  How long until we see the real picture of this propped up Bear Market pretending to be a Bull.

Prices in the SPX is still diverging negatively but the intra-charts is still at risk of upside bias.  To top it off, we are now seeing a potential of another smaller diagonal triangle forming.  But to keep this simple, my line for a CIT would be the 200 day MA which is currently converging with the 60min charts 200 moving average as well.  The ES shows that the 200 moving average has been a good barometer for support or resistance.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA

1 Apr 2016 - Bears Fooled With 30 Pt. Rally

Fitting title for such a day like today.  The ES opened the session today sitting on the 200th hour moving average.  I tweeted that if it broke we would have a negative day.  Sure enough it bounced right off that line and never looked back.

To round off the week, we had a Bullish monthly chart and now a Bullish weekly as well.  Forget what the markets is telling you and just follow the signs.  Good news can be both good or bad, but signals are pretty consistent.  The ST is on an upward trajectory, and I did say that I felt that a top is at hand, but it seems to have eluded me again.  This is not to say that we are not forming one right now, but the ST at the moment is diverging with the signals warranting my concern for a top.  However, we must wait for confirmation of the ST to turn down before we can make any clear move.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP