11 Nov 2014 - CURRENT MARKET

So far the prices looked to be waning and curling over.  But we are still in OB territory so we must at least let it come out of it before we can try to see a short opportunity.  One thing to note is that the daily 200ma is moving higher day by day, and at this rate any correction in prices would have a high probability of retracing down to the 1920 - 1930 level.  My reason behind it is that based on the current analysis and given that prices won't just drop from here.  I speculate that the 200 daily MA, and the Fib. 50% line on the 60min chart will meet each other.  The other not so bearish retracement would be the 38.2% which currently is hosting the 75MA of the 60min chart.  These two are more likely, but not the only available level to watch as the 61.8% is also hosting the "Price Gap".  Again this is speculation, and I would not act on the analysis until I have at least an ST to back up my targets.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

Mid-day analysis:

So far the market has been behaving or sporting similar indications of a top that was also made in 2007.  Will we get the same?  Just some info to think about...

10 Nov 2014 - 2041?

I have extend the Fib lines to 2041 for the next possible higher price target.  The last target we had was just a short-term stopping point and has now resumed an upward move.  I am guessing that we are closing in on a top, but would not be able to tell until we get some sort of indication from our ST.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

7 Nov 2014 - More Consolidating

Price movements are sideways and the indicator has not moved in any way that would warrant me to get rid of long positions.  At this point it is toppy, but still has a higher probability of higher prices to come.  I know this is not what the Bears would like to hear but it is what it is.  This is why we cant really speculate on the turning points until we have a solid confirmation or at least one that gives us a better chance on succeeding in our trades.  Unfortunately for those like me, I will have to wait 2 days twiddling my thumb.   The SPX has managed to put in higher prices since yesterday.  I said last night that I would extend the FIB lines if I see a clear move up.  So far though, it is just a pierce and nothing significant to have us stretch the lines, so the support and resistance level is safe for now.  Being that price had a hard time moving up today. It would also raise the possibility of an evident resistance level on a intra-day basis.

MT: UP
PA: UP
ST: UP

6 Nov 2014 - Is This It For Now?

A few analysis back, I extended the fib. ratio up to which point the retracement would fulfill a support and resistance based on prices that have formed previously.  This is my way of working backwards and has worked at times.  We have been inching up and so far this target of 2031 has been met with all retracements sitting on price resistance and support area.  If we do start to turn down, the probable level to watch is the 38.2% near 1950.  If price do exceed higher tomorrow I will see if it's just an overthrow or a clear continued up move in which I would have to move the Fib. line higher as well.  Based on our 60min chart, the 38.2% level sits on our 200ma.  On a daily chart, the same 1950 level is the 50% of the BB line also known as the 20day MA.  Clearly a nice spot to park prices at.

Currently nothing has changed with our CIT indicators or sentiment.  But our market sentiment of BEARISHNESS will change this week if prices do not reverse hard and at this point that is looking likely that a BULLISH sentiment will be signalled by weeks end.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

 

Note:  One thing to mention is that if prices continue higher the probability of it moves to the 2068 level where it would stretch the FIB. 61.8% to the 200 DAY MA support.  The 38.2% will also be stretched to the 1973 level where it shows a few price support and resistance formed during late Sept. and early Oct. (also near the Daily Charts 75ma). This scenario would make prices pierce or touch the upper BB line before reversing which is currently at 2062.

 



5 Nov 2014 - Positive Response

Change is in the air.  There were positive response to yesterdays blog and great to have those on board the blog site.  I hope to make the experience simpler and stress free for both advanced and intermediate trader / investor.  The charts will also be simpler and I will continue to post the direction and momentum of our trends.

I have added on the side bar a link for members to join.  Please feel free to join us.

The markets have lost the momentum to the upside, but that does not mean that we are done going up to higher highs.  The ST is still clearly on an UP-TREND.. Therefore we must stay the course.  I have also updated the chart to reflect the *NEW* MT. So this is to remind us that we should be trading with the trend.  I will also be limiting the EW analysis to better serve everyone who might get confused with too much information, but it also does not mean it will disappear altogether.  Any feedback is welcomed of course. 

As much as our ST has done well so far through this uptrend, I feel however that the market should pull back at least before resuming a bull run that many now are calling for.  Therefore, we should look for the ST to signal to us a turn sooner than later.  This has been a good run and should have some traders taking profits on partial positions..

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

4 Nov 2014 - Still UP.. No DOWN

My analysis is simple.  "What you see is what you get".  Speculation is not considered a bad thing, but we need to minimize the risk until we can confirm it.  So, until I see the confirmation I'm not going to put in too much belief that it would go one way or the other.  If there is no signal then the best way to look at things is to just stay with the current trend or be on the sideline waiting for the best move possible.  Remember, its not the quantity of trades, its the quality of those trades.

So far the ST is still LONG the market from 1870.  Where do you get a signal like that from other blogs and free at the same time?.  True, our ST can whipsaw at times but that's just the nature of things when you have high volatility.  This is why traders and investors should learn to analyze what a short-term trend is doing and which direction  and when an acceleration might occur.  People ask why we have the MT when it is lagging.  Our response is that it can show us the higher probability of a longer term trend direction.  But I have to admit though that the MT has been the none relevant indicator since I started to post these signals.  Therefore there will be changes coming that could refine its effectiveness.  But there is a catch.  Over the past 2 years, I have been viewing the traffic by numbers, but not subscribers.  I am amazed by how many traffic flows through here, but I have not seen many who subscribe.  Its free folks... So take a bit of time and subscribe.  Otherwise I will keep the MT signal reliability to myself or delete it from my blog.  Everyone who I have been in contact with has seen the good that comes out of my blog and often times, the signals are good.  Just look at Oct 17th when our ST went BULLISH...  Where there any blogs calling an Up-trend granted it was 2 days from the bottom?

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

1870 SPX Pts. - Current 2012 SPX Pts. = 142 Pts.

Last ST CIT - Oct 7 @ 1960 Trending Down to ST Oct 17 @ 1870 = 90 Pts.

3 Nov 2014 - Are We There Yet?

There is a possibility that there will be another push higher to 2031.54 SPX.  By reaching this far, we can position the Fib. 50% just below the two bottoms made in early Oct. and the minor bottom made last week at the 1925 level.  This is of course speculation, but we are trying to see a possible match to a retracement level and often times using this type of forecast can be a smart way to confirm your analysis.  Again... Speculation.  We are still on an ST Uptrend and no vast divergence in sight that every other blog seems to suggest, other than the MACD's. 

Judging from the sentiment we have on the right side of this blog (BEARISH).  Any impulsive move down would in fact show a divergence in sentiment.  Therefore we must watch carefully to see if this is so.  Divergence in this instance would be a bearish move of over a few weeks.  But lets not get ahead of ourselves and stick with our indicators.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP