MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
Wednesday, 13 May 2015
13 May 2015 - Still A Sideways Affair
Prices are still moving sideways, with a risk to the downside now that the ST has turned back to the down trend. Right now volatility trumps trend so we need to see where the intra-day momentum stands each and every morning open to be ahead of any possible ST CIT.
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
Monday, 11 May 2015
11 May 2015 - Missing A Move
UPDATE May 12: The Futures have detracted and eliminated a possible 5 wave advance up by breaching certain requirements for an EW 5 wave pattern. Therefore we should look for a different count that fits current patterns..
The market was mostly down today, but probably not done with its move up. The EW pattern does not seem complete since price did not make a complete 5 wave and did not make or break for new highs. This would be the assumption if the count is right of course. The ST has remain UP, and I am not sure if todays momentum has made any significant move to alter the ST for tomorrow.
There is a Bradley Declination signal that happened yesterday and Im giving it a till tomorrow to see if we get any significant trigger UP or DOWN.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA
The market was mostly down today, but probably not done with its move up. The EW pattern does not seem complete since price did not make a complete 5 wave and did not make or break for new highs. This would be the assumption if the count is right of course. The ST has remain UP, and I am not sure if todays momentum has made any significant move to alter the ST for tomorrow.
There is a Bradley Declination signal that happened yesterday and Im giving it a till tomorrow to see if we get any significant trigger UP or DOWN.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA
Friday, 8 May 2015
8 May 2015 - Another Good Example
Today was another good example of the lagging condition we had been talking about the past few months, weeks, days. I had a good feeling the ST would turn a day before they usually do due to the impulsive and accelerating nature of prices developing recently. Today the signal had turned UP on the ST by market open and accelerated into OB territory. The only way I know how to safeguard against these volatile moves is to go into smaller and smaller time-frames to enter when price is accelerating and exit when signals are also exiting OB/OS conditions.
I know I am sounding like a broken record, but what has been said and what is being said now is all true. With all these zigzagging it is guaranteed to be very hard to trade as there is no clear direction in price. The only thing to rely at this point is the MT on a longer term trend, but this of course will take time to confirm, which for most of the readers is not too good since a more accurate turn or close to it is needed.
It looks like for the pattern we currently have that more upside is needed to new highs. But I remind many that I am biased to being bearish even though we are still making new highs month after month. So I am trading any weakness to the downside and out of the position on rallies. In the case that we are wrong with the count however the indicator should come out of its OB position as a confirmation.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP
I know I am sounding like a broken record, but what has been said and what is being said now is all true. With all these zigzagging it is guaranteed to be very hard to trade as there is no clear direction in price. The only thing to rely at this point is the MT on a longer term trend, but this of course will take time to confirm, which for most of the readers is not too good since a more accurate turn or close to it is needed.
It looks like for the pattern we currently have that more upside is needed to new highs. But I remind many that I am biased to being bearish even though we are still making new highs month after month. So I am trading any weakness to the downside and out of the position on rallies. In the case that we are wrong with the count however the indicator should come out of its OB position as a confirmation.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP
Thursday, 7 May 2015
7 May 2015 - Laggards Be Damned
UPDATE May 8: ST has again turned UP on volatility making the signals harder to read with its lagging nature when price becomes impulsive. The intra-day is also entering OB.
Yesterday, I warned that volatility in price would affect profits due to its impulsive nature, and to safeguard against these swings would need us to have exit strategies in place. I suggested that OS exit would be key to making decent short profits. This was evident today as prices and signal came out of OS and impulsively rallied. Tomorrow could be another surprise due to jobs data, but it does not matter what the numbers are when it comes out, so long as you have a entry / exit plan.
The ES is sporting a possible C wave push up today for a 2nd wave, and could only be validated by an impulsive move lower coupled with a bad jobs data as the "cause". This would assume the count is correct which we can never do, but with the ST still in a Downward position the possibility of a move lower is higher. Watch out for volatility as it is the norm now. A impulsive move lower scenario has me looking at the 200 day moving average as a possible support.
On an intra-day basis, one should look at the signals to stay out of the OB range if one is expecting a move lower tomorrow.
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
Yesterday, I warned that volatility in price would affect profits due to its impulsive nature, and to safeguard against these swings would need us to have exit strategies in place. I suggested that OS exit would be key to making decent short profits. This was evident today as prices and signal came out of OS and impulsively rallied. Tomorrow could be another surprise due to jobs data, but it does not matter what the numbers are when it comes out, so long as you have a entry / exit plan.
The ES is sporting a possible C wave push up today for a 2nd wave, and could only be validated by an impulsive move lower coupled with a bad jobs data as the "cause". This would assume the count is correct which we can never do, but with the ST still in a Downward position the possibility of a move lower is higher. Watch out for volatility as it is the norm now. A impulsive move lower scenario has me looking at the 200 day moving average as a possible support.
On an intra-day basis, one should look at the signals to stay out of the OB range if one is expecting a move lower tomorrow.
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
Wednesday, 6 May 2015
6 May 2015 - OS Heaven
The longer we are in OS the longer the distance of price entry to current price. Of course this will depend on when you actually entered short. The volatility reared its ugly head at the end of the trading hour where price managed to rally 20 pts. on the SPX. That said, any cushion you can get on an acceleration down helps you exit with a profit, this is why I am fixated in the analysis of OB / OS conditions.
There seems to be a positive divergence forming on the intra-day charts, so expect a move out of OS tomorrow. Divergences does not always guarantee a reversal, but we can be prepared for the possibility of it. Since the market has been jittery and impulsive in each and every direction, we need to find a strategy that gives us maximized profit.
On a daily basis, prices are now being supported by the 75ma and its lower BB line. Any break of this support could push us lower to 2050 or 2040.
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
There seems to be a positive divergence forming on the intra-day charts, so expect a move out of OS tomorrow. Divergences does not always guarantee a reversal, but we can be prepared for the possibility of it. Since the market has been jittery and impulsive in each and every direction, we need to find a strategy that gives us maximized profit.
On a daily basis, prices are now being supported by the 75ma and its lower BB line. Any break of this support could push us lower to 2050 or 2040.
MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
Tuesday, 5 May 2015
5 May 2015 - Flip Floppin'
UPDATE May 6 a.m.: ST has crossed down, and intra-day signals staying within OS position evidence in the accelerative condition downwards.
"With the intra-day signal still in OB, the momentum to more upside is in play. Look for an exit of this range for a trade exit or a short entry, whichever you prefer."
Strategy should always be made at end of trading days and reviewed before market opens so one has an idea of what needs to be done when said scenarios happen. Plan the trade, and trade the plan..
The ST has not turned down, but it could as easily turn with the price momentum the SPX had today. Volatility plays a big disadvantage to indicators, but will turn true eventually. One must ride the storm is all. Even for day traders, the extreme swings from OB to OS must be a stress inducing move. So regardless of the pattern or the Wave count, one should look at the indicator to see where it is telling us to get out or place our trades. In the case today, it is on the exit of the OB range. Today's move is also the biggest since late March. Will we get the momentum to finally make its mind up and travel in a sustained direction?
The intra-day chart is clearly showing its MT as bearish. So look for the ST to turn down tomorrow and see if the signal stays at OS. If you are short, the OS signal will be your trigger when it exits the range. Otherwise it is pushing lower.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: DOWN
"With the intra-day signal still in OB, the momentum to more upside is in play. Look for an exit of this range for a trade exit or a short entry, whichever you prefer."
Strategy should always be made at end of trading days and reviewed before market opens so one has an idea of what needs to be done when said scenarios happen. Plan the trade, and trade the plan..
The ST has not turned down, but it could as easily turn with the price momentum the SPX had today. Volatility plays a big disadvantage to indicators, but will turn true eventually. One must ride the storm is all. Even for day traders, the extreme swings from OB to OS must be a stress inducing move. So regardless of the pattern or the Wave count, one should look at the indicator to see where it is telling us to get out or place our trades. In the case today, it is on the exit of the OB range. Today's move is also the biggest since late March. Will we get the momentum to finally make its mind up and travel in a sustained direction?
The intra-day chart is clearly showing its MT as bearish. So look for the ST to turn down tomorrow and see if the signal stays at OS. If you are short, the OS signal will be your trigger when it exits the range. Otherwise it is pushing lower.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: DOWN
Monday, 4 May 2015
4 may 2015 - Up And Running...
We had an ST CIT today to the upside, but with a daily reversal candle. The gap up at todays open had OB intra-day reading all over it as noted in last Friday's analysis. The PA signalled a high probability of accelerative move UP, and that's just what it did.
I must also say, last weeks analysis of the fight between Mayweather and Pacquiao was also true to form. Too bad I don't bet.. LOL.
With the intra-day signal still in OB, the momentum to more upside is in play. Look for an exit of this range for a trade exit or a short entry, whichever you prefer.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP
I must also say, last weeks analysis of the fight between Mayweather and Pacquiao was also true to form. Too bad I don't bet.. LOL.
With the intra-day signal still in OB, the momentum to more upside is in play. Look for an exit of this range for a trade exit or a short entry, whichever you prefer.
MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP
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