22 May 2015 - Not Convinced

UPDATE:
Chart to watch;

We should look for the signal to cross the lower half, until that is done the bulls are still in control.

This breakdown if we can call it that is not at all convincing.  Not from a price, pattern, or indicator point of view.  The pattern is triangulating though and it could spell a move higher.  So there will be no resolution to the week other than a another weekly high.  A short and sweet analysis for the weekend.  Sorry I can't elaborate on this but it is what it is... Boring.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

I might elaborate on this analysis this weekend so you might want to check back once in a while.

 

BONUS:

"I am describing the outlook that I see as most likely, but based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so."
                                                                                                                         Janet Yellen



21 May 2015 - Respecting The Wedge

There is definitely a respect by the SPX on the upper and bottom wedge and will give the answer when it breaks either way.  Momentum is still in question evidence of the price high and signal failure. 

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

20 May 2015 - Pattern Complete?

With any analysis, a confirmation is needed.  So hopefully we will get that if we get a break of the wedge formation during the month of May.  With todays high, we would like to label it as complete but for now we can only say that a minimum has been met.  A prolonged push lower with an acceleration into OS would be a nice clue to the ending pattern and a CIT.

So far though the ST still remains UP and would need this to change to a downward position to also confirm a CIT.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

Bradley Signal: May 24 - 25

19 May 2015 - Maybe A Needed Rest

After a few days of lack luster move to the upside, prices might be in need of some RNR before another push higher.  So a pull back is not out of the ordinary which is what is showing on the intra-day charts.  Watch the potential wedge formation which could give the SPX a support in around the 2120 level.  A break of this level does not guarantee a fall but it would be something to watch intently if it does.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: NA

18 May 2015 - Still Inching...

Prices for the SPX has finally made a new high, but it was a struggle from the 1 fact that our signals have been on OB and accelerative mode for quite a few days.  Now that we have made a higher high my expectations have been met, but on an EW form ... Still lacking one full wave higher.  Im not as concerned about this too much.

Those who are long should look at profit taking when the signal exits OB range in the intra-day charts.  I do not think volatility is over, and far from it.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

15 May 2015 - Sell In May? Don't Count It Out..

Looks like sell in May is looking like bad theory, but there is still a few more weeks left.  The SPX has remained in OB for the whole day yet it has not made new highs like the ES.  This is concerning for momentum especially when a signal sits on OB and price does not make new highs or accelerate.

The minute counts on the SPX though might not be as important than what is forming on a bigger picture, and no matter the count there is nearing an end to the run based on its wedging pattern in major indexes.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

 

 

 

 



14 May 2015 - Just In Case

Our ST signals have not been very good with volatility, and in fact none of the indicators being used works when volatility is involved.  So make sure you have that ingrained in your head.  Were we prepared for this?  Of course...  Yesterday I wrote: Right now volatility trumps trend so we need to see where the intra-day momentum stands each and every morning open to be ahead of any possible ST CIT. 

During the intra-day open today we saw a good move to the OB range, and this would have been the signal to get out of any short that you are holding and hold for those with long positions.  I can't be any clearer on this subject.  But we all battle our inner demon and sometimes do not follow the rules we set out for ourselves.   If in fact the trend was a fake out and it would have moved lower eventually, it would have been a good idea anyway to take the loss and wait for a confirming move lower to re-enter short (Because we do not know how long or far an acceleration can take prices). 

With todays impulsive move, the ST was able to change direction within the same day, this suggest the move today was quite significant to say the least since it is often the next day that we see any reversal on the ST. With that said, any exit of the OB range would be a good signal to exit longs so there is a guaranteed profit taken.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP