30 Sept 2014

The ST has turned up again as volatility is on a roll.  But my personal belief is that this is forming a sideways move that we talked about last Friday (Sept 26 post).  We are approaching the Oct 3rd date and things could happen sooner so be aware of things occurring to the downside.

The pattern to view right now is an abcde triangulating or a ii-wave pattern.  A ii-wave would have us push down tomorrow the earliest and would be considered very bearish.  If we have an abcde pattern, this would be bullish long term as abcde occur only in 4th or B-waves (Corrective).

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

29 Sept 2014

The ST has turned down, and as I have mentioned in my previous post, this is occurring due to volatility.  The mornings gap down when seen from the futures chart (ES) shows a 3 wave decline.  Therefore the rally up currently should be a corrective pattern (in 3 waves). We can label this a B wave when complete or a ii-wave.  We could end the rally here but since our 60min chart stochastics is still pointing up, we should allow for the morning session to progress before calling it an end to the rally.

As I have indicated, there is a risk of acceleration to the downside, and although we did not hold the morning lows it was still a pretty good sized drop.  This could happen again..

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

26 Sept 2014

The ST indicator has turned UP.  But overall the fact that the ST turned up was not surprising as volatility comes into play.  There is indeed tension in the markets and there are some who are watching very carefully on how the patterns develops in the next week to come.  The daily 75ma needs to be broken again to sustain any move lower, but the cycle analysts are looking for a low today so we could see just that as the ST turned UP.  The next critical date for some is the Oct 3rd or 6th, and since that is at the end of the trading week next week or beginning of the next.  I would assume from our count that a sideways pattern could emerge.  Mind you that these dates have to be marginalized with  +/- a day or so, and that any EW pattern suggested are just an opinion.

If the market breaks, there will be no support until the 1920-1900 area.  Since we are in Bear Mode, we should be aware of this scenario.  It is times like these where you have to say to yourself which time frame to trust or follow.  But it is in the investors preference really.

My rule is that I am always playing the direction of the ST since it fits my trading style, and based on that direction I have to look at the trends of the lower time frames and trade in that direction as well.  I know the market is at a high right now and since the ST is on an UP Trend, I will be sitting it out until it turns.  Note that the MT is on the down trend as well.  So this should solidify which side we need to be on even if its a lagging indicator.  Sitting out does not lose anyone money...

I have included this link to what CRAMER was saying on the 24th (Wed.) not because I believe in his B$hit, but more of what the common investors are thinking right about now..  So what happened to the market?  As you know yesterdays drop was a pretty good one, so you can look at this on a day to day basis or a medium to long-term basis, but if you don't know your trend then you will surely be lost or losing money... Too BULLISH and so much BULL$H!T.  Don't predict but react to the market.


MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

25 Sept 2014

PA indicator has been a good warning sign of where the impulsive and acceleration will occur and in which direction.  It may not be as early as we want but it gets the job done along with the MT and ST when combined.

Todays move might be the end of a corrective wave or a start of a more severe wave down.  We would get more confirmation as patterns develop of course.. If the SPX sustains more pressure tomorrow the acceleration will get more intense, so keep this in mind if you are trying to buy a bottom.  As our ST remains bearish so will we...

Today's close is also important that it closed below the Daily 75ma, which is now the support/resistance zone.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

 

As the markets develop today, I have come to a few options of what it could bring near term along with the dates provided by Andre ( a poster on Solarcycles.net).

1.  The waves are patterned as a 3 wave, which could be just that.. Corrective and a new impulsive move up should occur. (BULLISH).

2.  The 3 waves is not a 3 wave but more like a 1-2, I-(ii still to form)  (BEARISH).

3.  The 26th is said to be a low, and it could be if we make the final morning move lower and bounce to end the wave-i.  Wave-ii should then begin.

4.  Since we have a next trade date along the Oct. 3-5th  period, I would then assume from our analysis that wave-ii would end then and would have to move sideways for next week before the end of week accelerative drop for a wave-iii.

5. This is the third option and is bullish longer term.  Since we are looking for higher highs to end the year, we would need to evaluate the current wave as an abc for (wave-A).  This would then be followed by an abc for (wave-B).  The next would be another leg lower that starts on Oct 3rd - 6th for an accelerated move lower and bottom by Oct 10th.

6.  That said, Wave-A would = Wave-C or 161.8% as a wave C alternative of wave-A, so once we have a complete wave for us tomorrow, we can then look at a possible ending target for Wave-C and project the 100% - 161.8% to find the ending of Wave-B.

24 Sept 2014

The SPX has managed to retrace the current run down by 50%.  The futures chart clearly shows a 3 wave move up, but not in the cash market.  With the market still in bearish mode the risk is still to the downside.  One thing to note here is that prices have moved above both the MAs of 75 and 200 in the 60min chart.  Also it has moved back above the green dotted line that we were calling a critical area.  We should watch to see if this will be broken again tomorrow.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

23 Sept 2014

The Bearish Mode we posted last night is a way for us to gauge our risk either to the upside / downside.  The market sentiment you see to the right shows us the current direction of the market and where impulsive momentum occurs.  In this case, to the downside.  This is also confirmed by our PA which is to the downside.  It does not mean we do not have impulsive moves up.  It just means there are greater chances of it happening to the downside.  So which side would you like to be on?

When indicators and sentiments are in SYNC, we tend to see the powerful moves.  So remember this and you should be able to tell when they are about to occur.

The markets broke yesterdays critical line, which was supported by a uptrend line (Marked by the dotted green line) and the 200ma on the 60min chart.  By not being able to hold price above the line, we can see who is in charge at the moment.  EW counters miss out on these runs as well because they believe they can time the market.  A quick gap down changes all that.  At times there are hidden counts as well that we cannot see because of those gaps and prevent a more accurate (LOL) count.

It is why we need to follow a timeline trend, whether Short, Medium, or Long-Term.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

BEARISH MODE

We have entered "Bearish" mode...