29 Jan 2016 - 61.8% Run Thus Far

Price is now at 61.8% if wave-a (blue). Although the possibility of a resistance here is high, the intra-day indicator is now at OB and with an ST still up-trending, it does seem to have more risk of higher prices.  The lower move that I discussed yesterday did not come to fruition so this EW count down is now void.  We will see next week if we will see this C-blue become a run-away situation targeting the 50% ret. from the Nov. 2015 highs to this years low at 1963.

The month end closes with a tail to show a possible low in place but our mid-term signal needs to show a bullish sentiment for us to confirm this possible monthly reversal bar.  Most importantly though, the close today in the monthly bar will not change the indicators trend which will now print with a downside bias.  So even though a market can turn up on a bearish indicator, what is important to take from this is the "RISK" involved.  Every bar can produce a tail, every pattern can look corrective, but weighing the risk is the best alternative when putting in a trade, and to follow that with consistency can result in success.  Add to this the fact that the 75ma of the monthly chart is now reaching the 1600 level will be a good magnet for prices if it happens to break down from current support.  This 1600 is only surpassed by the 1550 target that the current high to support is featuring (also to some a possible H&S).  This 300 plus pts.  will possibly have us in a scenario where price drops so fast that it will tag the lower end of the target but close on a monthly at or around the 1600 level where the moving averages resides.

The above is only speculation, but we can plan ahead and watch for this possibility.  Keeping with the same analysis, I also added a possible agreement on M. Armstrong's recent blog where he is looking for a flush out before a move to bullish ATH.  The article can be found HERE.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

NOTE: Although we can see from reading the above analysis that a possible bottom can be had or can happen soon, we cannot rule out the bearish case where the market just collapses and never finds footing for a sustained bounce.  But this is what our indicators are for, and if you have trusted the indicator since June 9th of last year, you would have been unscathed by the volatile market.

28 Jan 2016 - A Bit More Detail

Seems prices are subdividing patterns and time.  While we are in following two strong possible EW patterns, it seems that we have to wait a while longer for the true intention of the market.  The sideways movement of the market today suggest that a lower price is setting up, but the anticipated lower move can be an extension of a c-wave of B.

The ST has not changed its direction and we should look for a higher prices eventually once this small sideways move is over, unless we get a change soon to the downside.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

27 Jan 2016 - Correction Extended?

This part of EW counting is the hardest due to the multiple possibilities of the sub-waves.  The 5min chart I provided on Monday is still in play but the variations of the coming price trends have multiplied as seen on the updated 5min chart below.  If the sub-waves are done we should make an impulsive move lower and break the last low (marked in red dotted trendline).  If however, we are still subdividing, we should see price rise into the resistance we noted on our 60min chart.  Since A=C is common, it is not guaranteed to always happen, but having this option, we can anticipate where the C-wave should start to the upside (seen on the 60min chart).

Plan accordingly, and be aware of the options available to you.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

26 Jan 2016 - Facing Resistance

Price did rise as per yesterdays blog, but it seems to be facing resistance at current levels.  This would not be close to the analysis I had yesterday and would need for price to break up and out of this level to fulfill the rally.  As the market is bearish, caution should be taken for those who like to dip-buy.  I have mentioned this before, but since we are getting the FED meeting and talking, anything can happen, but the larger risk remains to the downside due to the "Sentiment" which if you followed since June 2014, has had major impulsive moves to the downside even when there was a rally.  This is what the bulls are faced with now, and there are no confirmation yet of a bullish turn-a-round that could be lasting.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

The 60min 75MA is holding price at bay, but a break above tomorrow will accelerate things to the upside.  A turn down in the signal and into bearish territory is a possible entry point for shorts.

25 Jan 2016 - Has The Correction Ended?

The pattern seems to show a corrective price move from the lows made last week, but knowing precisely if it has ended is a bit difficult in that a sub-division is possible,  The move lower today also doesn't seem too impulsive, and will have to see more development into open trade tomorrow to have an idea of how the price outcome will affect the analysis.

Current intra-day chart signaled a bearish start at 8:30 am in the futures market, and will close bearish.  If the open tomorrow can sustain a push lower the ST might be at risk of turning down as well.  Thus far the intra-day signals will only be effective for a few hours, and is not considered long-term. But day traders can take advantage of these signals, while swing traders wait for the ST to change its stance.  Perhaps this draw down from this morning is a sub-dividing B-wave with a C-wave up to come. This is of course speculative, but nevertheless a possibility...

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

If the count above is the case then the impulsive move in the late hour sell-off makes perfect sense.

If the rally extends then find resistance at the 50% ret. or the down trending blue-dotted line.

22 Jan 2016 - Not Convinced, But follow Signal

There is no use trying to force your views on how the markets might move.  The market does not care...

I believe that the prices are moving higher but still in a corrective phase, but the ST has now moved out of OS and is also trending UP.  This is a good sign in the short term, and we should take some covered profits and re-enter when conditions are favourable to short a bearish market.  Remember that you should not worry too much about catching tops and bottoms but to recognize that a trend has changed.

Prices in the SPX is now right under the 60min. charts 75 MA.  We should also remember that on a fundamental view, many of these equities will start reporting soon, and could show erratic behaviour.  On a daily time frame, prices closing at this price level (1906.90) is no surprising as it is the resistance to an imaginary line that has placed support to price for the past year, and has been respected by price by way of a quick bounce right after the quick dip below 1900.  This range should be watched carefully in the next few trading days to see if this holds up or breaks down.

On a lighter and bullish note, the weekly candle bar is sporting a reversal.  This after 3 weeks of decline.  I have mentioned in the FREE report last night that the signal needs to reverse or be at risk of pushing price to a CRASH scenario.  While not totally bullish, the candle does give a bit of relief to bulls.  The 200 Week MA is also inching higher and at 1782 level at this weeks closing.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

21 Jan 2016 - Weak Lookin'

Price didn't do much moving today regardless of a intra-day  OB situation.  If this case for a bull run is strong, it should have taken advantage of the OB to accelerate price to the upside, but it did not.  The daily candle does not look like a confidence builder, sporting a reversal candle and below the Gann angle that I am following.  The long-term OS is still in play, and maybe the cause for the weak OB signal on the intra-day charts.  This is still under study to see reactions opposite each extremes.

Since I have an 1800 target that was not hit, it is possible price is still working through some pressure before a resumption lower.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
WARNING: Impulsive move down has occurred, but it could get worse if we do not exit OS on ST. (Crash Scenario)...

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