29 Oct 2012

Markets closed again on Tuesday..  Tweedle dee Tweedle dum... where is the money going to come from...

28 Oct 2012

Stock Market is closed on Monday due to Hurricane Sandy. 

26 Oct 2012

Dow Industrials weekly chart has entered bearish range. The last time this signalled bullish was on July 25, more than 3 months ago. Daily stoch. for the indexes has crossed up but still in oversold territory. 

SPX:

Daily -Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bearish Oct 26 - Last Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

25 Oct 2012

Lower moves today from ES, SPX, INDU but was looking for more.  With AAPL, AMZN failing to beat we might just see the lower lows and  print a reversal for the end of the week. 

24 Oct 2012

Lower low and possibly an ending 5th wave for the SPX.  Looking for a rally on the stoch. The Daily chart shows divergence and stoch still pointing down.  60min chart shows a slight lower low which can be enough for a full wave count for 5th but this can turn to a totally different wave count sooner than later, so we want to follow the indicators.  There is a risk of a rally so I would stay out and watch until the morning to see if I would go short again or not.

Possible Bullish EW count to finally end the move if we rally towards the presidential election due in a few weeks.

A drop across the 400 range will trigger its Sell Signal.

 

23 Oct 2012

This a perfect example of loosing money if you traded againts the trend.  Last friday I mentioned that the daily Stoch. for the SPX has made a cross down.  This changed our trend, and yesterday the market reversed and made a reversal candle on the daily all the bulls and bears immediately called a short term bottom and while I did also say that we should rally, I did warn that our daily was still on the downside.  Today that downside came fast and hard.  Are we done? Im sure we are close as everything is in oversold, but we need our daily stochastics to turn up for markets to follow short-term.  Until then DOWN is the word.

22 Oct 2012

Lower low and an active rally by the end of the day.  Couldnt ask for anything more.  Our SPX daily Stoch. is still down-trending and looking for either a 3 wave up or 5 wave up rally.  3waves would suggest we are corrective and might print a 2nd wave structure.  A 5wave up depeding on the size could be an A wave or the 1st wave to a progression for a new high in the markets that would label a 5th wave of this move from the June 2012 lows.  Rememeber we are still bearish at this point.

Weekly SPX Ratio

SPX Ratio not only indicated a turn on Sept 28 by the stoch to the downside but the MACD has finally turned down with strong negative divergences.

19 Oct 2012

We have and impulsive down today and spx 15min stoch started the down day and pretty much stayed oversold for the rest of the trading day till near closing causing the 60min to also move to the oversold range.  The daily Stoch.  Has turned bearish therefore our new trend is bearish until it turns up again.  The Sentiments to take longs out and wait for a buying opportunity played out, as you can see holding it would have been disasterous.  I expect another move down on monday to finish off a 5th wave down which is bearish indeed, but one cannot use that as a commitment to short.  So instead watch your 60min pull out of the oversold condition and see if the daily curls back up. If it doesnt then the 60min has reset for more downside movement.

SPX:

Daily -Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

18 Oct 2012

Markets moved lower today just after in the am spike to a new day high.  The move out of overbought range on our 60min stoch was expected.  But do remember our daily is still bullishly up so a turn down on the 60min can be seen as just a correction.  A possible ABC 3 wave pattern to confirm that it is.  The 15min stoch. shows a move up out of oversold that could be starting wave B, therefore if prices doesnt move higher and the 15min somehow turns down you can be sure its starting another wave down.

17 Oct 2012

One can count the recent rally we have as 5 waves complete but I think that there is a possibility of another subwave to finish off the complete 5 waves to form either a 1st wave of 5 or a C wave that Bearish EWrs are calling for.  The Daily SPX is still chuggin' along to the upside and has not indicated a turn but we dont see on the daily chart we can see on the 60min chart that allows for a turn down.  Corrective or not the clue lies on the impulsiveness of the move and whether the indicators are able to manipulate the daily trend to change aswell. 

16 Oct 2012

The rally we talked about continued from yesterdays end instead of pulling back briefly.  we are bullish by todays market end.  Still looking for a pull back so we will look for a 3 wave pattern for correction or a 5 wave pattern down will be suspect of a new impulsive move down for a new trend.

SPX:

Daily -Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

15 Oct 2012

Rally has started but a brief pull-back is expected tomorrow before the rally continues.

I must add a concern of mine on the SPX based on EW analysis and that, on thursdya Oct 11 and Friday Oct 12 a 3 wave pattern have been made down and exceeded the previous low made on Oct 10.  The only wave I see that fits this patterns are B waves. But what B wave is this of?  A possibility that this was a be wave of the 2nd wave forming and the waves forming after that is made of 5 waves or another 3 waves.  In this case we can label this expanded flat 2nd wave.  If this is right then tomorrow would bring down the house.  Could be fitting for that 1987 crash, so we will see.

We have different EW that is available to us:

Option 1 - ABC since Sept 14 (Entering a C wave down of C earliest tomorrow)

Option 2 - Failed 5th Oct 5th that failed to make a new high for SPX but Dow did manage to make new highs.  Therefore we are now at 1-2 ( with 3 to come earliest tomorrow).

Option 3 - ABC Since Sept 14 is done and we are now heading higher with 1st wave of 5 done and 2nd wave to commence tomorrow. (the pattern that shows up tomorrow will be very telling either 3 waves or 5 waves.)

Option 4 - 4th wave just finished and we are making a final 5th wave of wave W1.

1987

Tomorrow is the 25th anniversary of the Black Monday Crash on October 16, 1987.... Im Just Sayin'.. haha.

12 Oct 2012

Still looking for lower prices that might end its current run by monday.  The best wave count that fits both SPX and DOW is that this is an ABC due to the DOW making a new high late last week.  There are a few who called the SPX a failed move for a 5th but even that is covered by 3 wave pattern all the way up.  Therefore we will still be looking for our indicators for clues.

Conclusion:
Our Daily indicators for the SPX and DOW both show "Oversold" (It can stay oversold for a while so the next clue is on the 60min indicator.  Our 60min stoch. has also diverged and when it comes out of its oversold range short positions should be covered and watch to make sure the daily does follow up and crosses for an uptrend.  A small position can be placed for the upside but any turn around by the 60min stoch. down should be sold.

11 Oct 2012

Markets have opened and closed on the same level pretty much.  The Stoch. on a daily chart has entered an oversold range and so we will be looking for more downside until we get out of the range or if we cross up.

Financials were strong again today closing positive.  We might need a divergence on a weekly basis for financials to finally turn.

10 Oct 2012

Markets moved lower today and ES seems to have made a 5 wave diagonal wave pattern down from its Oct 5 high.  As for the SPX the waves are harder to countbut im assuming that the sideways trend from midday to end of day is a hint of more continuation downward to come and possibly end an ABC or just a wave A of C. 

When we cannot count waves or patterns properly its always good to know that our indicators are there to give us a more precise signal.  In this case a FIB. 100% move of wave A is close at hand at 1427 area, and we have an oversold 60min Stoch.  Our daily is bearish looking so in order for it to remain bearish, the 60min stoch should move higher and reset itself for a cross down without affecting the dailys current bearish pattern (Meaning stochastics must not cross up). Also note that price have touched the lower BB indicator.

Conclusion:  your daily is bearish and it will be your main trend until the weekly prints at the end of the week to give you a clue.  Therefore any cross up is considered temporary for the 60min charts and if your looking to enter a short position it will be when the 60min stoch. starts to turn back down on a crossover.  No long position should be placed until a main trend turns bullish.

9 Oct 2012

Markets went down as anticipated and based on todays action we have entered bearish territory for both SPX and DOW.  So now we will look at how long it will go on for.  The daily suggest that we trend for days to weeks.  Clearly our weekly sentiments below have been the one leading the trend longer-term.  This would be the same for precious metal.

SPX:

Daily -Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

8 Oct 2012

We had a follow through of fridays Reversal shooting star candle.  So we will be looking at this move down as either Wave 1 or Wave A of C.

 

Silver has trended down since early October, and only today has Gold shown a downward bias and could start the trend of equities down.  People believe that Both Precious metals and equities relate to each other, but actually for the most parts they dont.  Yes they did make a rally this past few months along with the indexes but notice they did not make a new high, also take note that precious metals bottomed around May while the Index bottomed in June.

 

 

A Longer-term Divergence has been occuring on the Dow Jones Index since Late 2009 and will eventually give.  Why?  Notice that Each divergence is made with smaller and smaller wedges.  This is not characteristic of a Bullish Momentum.



5 Oct 2012

Most index posting an end of day reversal shooting star.  Prices moved higher in the morning and even surpassed the previous high by the Dow Jones.  It still suggest a C wave down to come. Most likely after that a presidential rally.

INTRA

Our Stoch on the 60min chart is overbought and will push prices higher unless it gets out of its overbought range and Macd still staying bullish.

4 Oct 2012

Our Wave Count has changed and its always better to recognize the mistake than not in my opinion.  But this time a Corrective move down is what I will be looking for after we complete the B wave of this leg and perhaps a move to new highs by the presidential election.

3 Oct 2012

The markets keeps zigzagging along and have not turned down yet.  Its a process and we are still on track and within our expanding triangle channel.  A break of the top trendline would be considered bullish and prices should head higher.

SPX:

Daily -Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4

Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012

Einhorn Taking The Chip Out Of Chipotle

There was a lot of movement today after David Einhorn revealed at the Value Investing Congress, that he was short Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). As investors took notice, we saw the price of CMG drop from 320 down to 290 before ending the day at 302.96.

There was no mention of when or where Einhorn started his short position, but technical clues reared their heads just before the drop in April of this year. So instead of jumping in and hoping that you can capitalize on his trade, you might want to ask yourself how far along his shorts have come and how far would it go. Is this a ploy to get amateur investors in while the big boys exit the game? Are there further downside to come to be able to make a decent profit?

Lets analyze this in a pure Technical and Time Frame Trends, and hopefully we can add some of those extra sides of Guacamole on our next visit to CMG.

Trends is not a simple channel or direction. Time also factor into how far and how fast it goes. There is always a saying you are probably familiar with "The Trend Is Your Friend", but do you really know how to use it? Most will say a loud YES. But for you out there with an open mind, imagine 3 types of vehicles traveling the same road. A Motorcycle, Car, and a Bus. As they travel down the road each vehicle can only perform as much as their ability will allow them. For example Speed, and Turns. A motorcycle can pull away fast it can turn on a dime, the car on the other hand can also pull away fast but wont be able to turn as fast as the motorcycle. Now lets take a look at the Bus. Its not on slow in acceleration, but it also needs more room to turn. This is the same concept that must be applied to the time frames of your choice in this case we will use the daily, weekly, and monthly.

When a daily indicator moves, it moves for days or weeks. When a weekly indicator moves, it moves for weeks or months. Lastly when a monthly indicator moves, it moves for months or years. So keep this valuable piece of tool to trade.

Back in April of this year we saw on a monthly Stochastic a cross down from overbought condition. We can consider this for now as our main trend, but how do we know that this down-trend will continue its course? The clue lies on the weekly trend and where was it when the monthly Stochastic crossed in April? Also in overbought territory, and diverging with the prices. The same rule applies to determine if the weekly Stochastic will turn down, and one must look towards the Daily charts to see where this indicator is. Therefore looking at the daily we see a price divergence with our Stochastic indicator which allows us to short this stock by mid April.

Now the key to this trade is to ask yourself how long you plan on holding this for. Are you a day-trader?, a swing-trader? or a long-term investor? Don't let anyone tell you where they think its going because there is one data point that they are not disclosing to you, and its not because they don't want to tell you or that they have a secret that allows them to better their odds. It's because they do don't have a clue. So as a piece of advice I gave above your trading style has to match the movement of either the Daily, Weekly, or Monthly time frame where daily charts will only trend as far as days to weeks, and weekly trends weeks to months, and monthly from months to years. So to finish this off, we have determined that mid-April was a top of some sort as the daily divergence has enough momentum to push the weekly indicators down, and aswell as the weekly momentum pushing the monthly indicators down aswell. See for yourself...

(click to enlarge)

Daily chart

(click to enlarge)

Weekly chart

(click to enlarge)

Monthly chart

As a EW'r the pattern I see to be the case for this stock is a 5 wave Expanding Diagonal Triangle. which could also be counted as Wave 1 or A. With an expected ZigZag move up for a Rally. But remember that one must react to the signals instead of speculating as to where its going. This small but effective rule could be what separates the rich from the pauper.

(click to enlarge)

So in conclusion, we now know that today's call by Einhorn has a potential 64.3 gain on the short side. The question is would you enter here or let the pattern and trend progress back up after it had made a new low then establish a shorting opportunity again. The answer... It depends on what time-frame you feel most comfortable to trade at.

Best of Trading..

2 Oct 2012

Lookin for a continued move down tomorrow.. Last nights analysis is going well with the 3 wave move we were expecting for a new low.

UPDATE

So far looking back on the analysis that we have done, the mistake that is evident to me is that I didnt give the pattern enough time to form and no matter what this is human nature.  Damn if you do and Damn if you don't, but to recognize it is better than nothing at all.

1 Oct 2012

It looks like we are still in a corrective move up and this current trend down is not done yet.  One thing about these corrective pattern is it rarely shows its intentions.  We do have a daily shooting star candle for the SPX though which could point to lower prices.

Both counts that I have put forward the last few days are still both in play.  The patterns are left to be desired, but we have to follow our indicators.