“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

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Friday, 19 October 2012

19 Oct 2012

We have and impulsive down today and spx 15min stoch started the down day and pretty much stayed oversold for the rest of the trading day till near closing causing the 60min to also move to the oversold range.  The daily Stoch.  Has turned bearish therefore our new trend is bearish until it turns up again.  The Sentiments to take longs out and wait for a buying opportunity played out, as you can see holding it would have been disasterous.  I expect another move down on monday to finish off a 5th wave down which is bearish indeed, but one cannot use that as a commitment to short.  So instead watch your 60min pull out of the oversold condition and see if the daily curls back up. If it doesnt then the 60min has reset for more downside movement.

SPX:
Daily -Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Oct 1 - Last Bearish Sept 26 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 31 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 27 - Neutral June 26 - Last Bearish* 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25 - Last Bearish Apr 4
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 11 - Last Bullish Nov 2011

DOW:
Daily - Bearish Oct 19 - Last Bullish Oct 16 - Last Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish Sept 6 - Last Bearish Aug 23 - Last Bullish July 26 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 13 - Last Bearish July 10 - Last Bullish June 26 - Last Bearish 25 June - Last Bullish 12 June - Last Bearish 11 June - Last Bullish June 8 - Last Bearish May 4 - Last Bullish Apr 25
Weekly - Bullish July 27 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish May 9 (not yet printed) - Last Bullish Nov 2011

SILVER:
Daily - Bearish Oct 8 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 17 - Last Bearish June 19 - Last Bullish June 1 - Last Bearish Apr 13 (Entered oversold Apr 24) - last Bullish Apr 12
Weekly - Bullish Aug 24 - Last Bearish Apr 4 (printed Apr 5) - Last Bullish Mar 30 - Last Bearish (Mar 21 2012 Printed Mar 23) Last Bullish (Mar 19) - last bearish (Mar 14 2012) - Last Bullish Jan 27 2012

GOLD:
Daily - Bearish Oct 9 - Last Bullish July 25 - Last Bearish July 23 - Last Bullish July 16 - Last Bearish July 6 - Last Bullish June 29 - Last Bearish June 21 - Last Bullish June 1- Last Bearish May 3 2012 - Last Bullish Apr 26 - Last Bearish Apr 16 - Last Bullish Apr 10
Weekly - Bullish Aug 10 - Last Bearish Mar 13 2012
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2 comments:

  1. Liz DeMera19 October 2012 at 18:55

    it played out like a book yesterday, I could see your method in tlt turning up on stochs and iwm and spy turning down on stochs.now the hard part comes in trying to enter. I do all my techincal stuff ( internals) work it showed a weak mkt for a while now. SO i may have to wait a while until it gets deeply oversold for a swing. I not good at day trades..They eat me alive.LOL. I like real spikey Vix today looked like a warm up...Probably me talking like this means the mkt will go back up now....

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  2. MP19 October 2012 at 20:07

    The important lesson here is know what will be your main trend. I use weekly or daily as my main trend and usually it works well when you trade any time frame with the main trends direction. This allows you to stop day trading.

    Ie. IWM daily chart is down now suppose that the turn is a new trend down. ANY time frame now is playable to the downside when its stochastics turn down. Because your trend is down on the daily you can hold your shorts until it turns therefore no daytrading involved. If you want to try to pick the tops and bottoms as much as possible you can use the 60min or 15min to get in short on top of the stoch. and exit at the bottom cross-up of the stoch. and let it ride up again before shorting again.. very simple but effective rule. All this time you are just following the dailys trend. If you look at a years worth of daily you will see that the daily trends have lasted half a month sometimes.

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