28 Feb 2013

Month has ended and we have some doji's on our monthly charts for some index.  Our ES high made on Monday was not breached, and followed with a late day sell.  I would consider this bullish but until our mid-term trend reverses, we still remain short but cautious.  The SPX has closed with a daily shooting star doji as well and has not passed Mondays High.  We will watch tomorrows move to see if an impulsive attitude.

27 Feb 2013

The wedge formation did not pan out as we had been hoping, but our mid-term trend has not changed its downward trend.  Until then I remain on a downward bias, with a daily up trend.

My ES chart shows that it is still possible to count this in EW as a 1-2 1-2.. with a 3rd wave down to come.  The only way for this to be void is for prices to exceed the intraday high made on Monday Feb 26.

27 Feb 2013 Morning Update

We are hitting the 75ma on the 60min. SPX chart this proves to be a good line of support and resistance.  So watch out for a possible reversal soon.

26 Feb 2013

We now have enough EW pattern to give us a clue as to what to look for.  We need to make sure we don't get ahead of ourselves and pull a trade without confirmation.  For now we can see if our pattern works out and sell for a rally to the upside until our longer term trend turns around and becomes bullish.  At this point we are still in a down trending move. 

Based on todays move we could be looking at a WEDGE formation and this could be found on 4th or B waves.  Where we are on the count this looks more like a 4th wave to me and we should see higher highs.  Again, we cant get ahead of ourselves but we should be aware of this.

25 Feb 2013

With all the Volatility the past few days it would be crazy to be playing short term trades.  Either you get stopped out or you miss the boat.  This is where a medium term trend helps to keep your positions and maximize your gains.  As we have been updating the blog, the trend remains to be on the downside, and on a daily basis we have not hit the oversold territory yet.  We can possibly still see a bit more downside before we move up, but as I said we should be moving downward for a few days or weeks more.

As a bonus, I have had the opportunity to purchase Bradley Cowan's Cycle Timer and have been playing around with it, and its just so amazing.  I am sure he doesn't mind if I share some of his work with you as it will probably create more interests and one cannot base success on one chart.  But its a good eye opener nonetheless.  I hope you enjoy it as much as I have.  I recommend people who want to know more about GANN or Astrology forecasting to invest in his teachings.

Here is the Chart for (Nasdaq - Geo - Sid - Mar - 36 Deg.).  As you can see Cowan's turn date for the Nasdaq came right on the 20th of Feb. 2013.

 

 



Tomorrow I will try to relate these tops and bottoms based on my Stoch. analysis.  This should give us a broader understanding of what is to expect when these dates arrive.

You can also check out Platy's blog for a more consistent understanding of these planetary cycles and alignments. HERE.

22 Feb 2013

Our lower low did not pan out.  But the expected rally has, which brings us to the 61.8% level at 1518 on the SPX.  Our trend is still to the downside so until then we are holding our short positions.

ES 11:45pm Feb 21 2013

Looks like the ES has already covered the rally that I was expecting and has reached overbought on the RSI.  This looks good for the "Shorts" due to the obvious.  When a signal moves faster than the price, you are sure to see more push against price by the indicator.

We should expect SPX to at the least open on a positive then make its way down throughout the day.

21 Feb 2013

We are on the 2nd day of our downtrend, and although we see it moving down for days, we can expect rallies to happen.  Maybe as early as tomorrow or end of day.  The 60min chart gives us a clue as to what has happened so far and the Stochastics has shown an oversold reading.  It can stay oversold for a long time since we are on a down trend so we are careful to call a rally to prematurely.  Good indication of one would be if we see a divergence with price and a continued move up out of oversold.  My analysis leads me to believe that we will have a lower low and perhaps down to 1490 before we rally up.

20 Feb 2013

Right On....  Daily chart shows what we have been looking for a convincing down trend and a top.  We can see with todays move that we are out of overbought and lower than the exit made by the beginning of Feb. before it moved up.  Therefore I would expect this move down to last a few days to weeks.  Any trade should be on the short side...

19 Feb 2013

We got our higher high.  I believe we have what is needed to make a move down on a daily basis.  Divergence with a touch of the upper BB is good indicator.  As you can see from the red vertical line the Downtrend was signalled on the 8th of Feb.

15 Feb 2013

Looks like our hope for a move down played out, but an end of day rally put a halt on that and have yet to indicate a strong signal for a move up.  Currently on a hourly basis we are on a down trend and our daily chart is still in oversold conditions but on a down trend.  We need to continue the down trend on the daily with a measured move by the 60min as its strength momentum that takes the daily out of overbought and down towards oversold.

14 Feb 2013

SPX managed a wedge shape move.  A weak move at that and seems to want to move back down.

13 Feb 2013

Although our 60min. Stoch. followed our forecast yesterday the price movement is nothing to be excited about.  Which leads me to believe that if our 60min Stoch. do bottom and price stays within range that we would see higher prices.

12 Feb 2013

The 60min. SPX chart made its minimum divergence and has made its way out of the overbought range.  Based on this indicator we should see the SPX and market move lower tomorrow.  My guess is that tonight's STATE OF THE UNION wont be very bullish for stocks tomorrow.  But anything can happen I guess.  So I will just follow my indicators and go with a downward direction.

11 Feb 2013

From the looks of the 60min. the sideways move lately seems to be gearing up for a higher move up.  shorts must be minimized here if one is to speculate.  Will we get a higher high in price with a divergence in Stoch.  I would believe this to be so.

8 Jan Mid-Day

We have a higher high.  Trend following arrows quite well in direction.  We almost have a 5 wave pattern from this move from yesterdays low, but its in a minute degree so its not impossible that it could be done.  Our 60min SPX and SPXratio are in overbought territory and wants to cross back down.  A 60min divergence will allow for higher prices to develop and finish the 5th wave of this degree that we are expecting.

7 Feb 2013

60min chart have been volatile lately and its evident from its daily Stoch. swings from overbought to oversold and back to overbought.

6 Feb 2013

Markets did not go anywhere today.  The divergence on the Daily chart is still in place and stochastics trying to move back down with no confirmation of a cross.  Therefore we are still in a Long but getting weaker scenario.  A reset is necessary for longer term highs... short term highs are never sustainable at overbought levels.

EW UPDATE 2013

I have Updated my Elliott Wave count for 2013 and this chart shows a more proportional pattern compared to the WXY pattern that has been thrown out there.  There is reason to believe that this count is right when comparing to equities and other Indexes.  This also fits with "ALL THE SAME MARKET" that EWT is stating.  Many indexes might not have the same form / pattern but counts the same if this is the way we view each and every count.

5 Feb 2013

Looks like another good call for a rally.  Didn't expect it to make a higher high so soon though.  Todays form / pattern looks to be a 3 wave move with a move from yesterdays high.  This suggests either more move up coming or we will turn down for a C wave move to finish a EW running FLAT for a 4th wave of some sort then move higher from there.  But as its stands we are diverging on a daily time frame and have a higher chance of a high this week before we move down for a few weeks to months.

4 Feb 2013

Our Daily SPX chart shows the Stoch. has come out of its overbought position. Therefore a strong case for a move down.  Our 60min Stoch. is already in the oversold so a reset or stay oversold for a longer period of time is needed to push down the daily some more.

 

60 minute chart shows possibility of a move that could last weeks before we make another attempt for a new high...  It is not shown for accuracy so please do not follow this trajectory...

CPCE Update

Here is that updated chart that we were talking about the past few days and as we called it the Stoch has crossed up calling for a rally to new highs and a divergence that would have fooled the bears into thinking that a top was in on Thursday.

1 Feb 2013

We are right in-line with our CPCE analysis and have made a higher high.  Beware.
Monday might see us finalizing a final high as todays pattern seems to be incomplete.  The SPX Daily Stoch. has curled up and would most likely put in a divergence by Monday and the 60min chart have moved to overbought and expect a small divergence also by Monday.

I will post an update of the CPCE when it updates its data tonight or this weekend.