A sideways pattern made of 3 waves has been developing since the 27th of June. We should expect a move up based on EW. Again, let your indicators do the talking.
Mid-Term: DOWN
Short-Term: UP
Tuesday, 2 July 2013
2 Jul 2013
The SPX has failed to close above the 20day ma for 2 days straight. This looks weak for markets and could be a surprise coming after the holiday. We still have one more try and as they say 3rd time is a charm. We still have a gap that has not been closed but that is just expectation. We could revisit that gap if its not closed in the future if the markets decide to head down. There is no rule that gaps should be closed immediately. A great example is the gap made at the beginning of the year.
A sideways pattern made of 3 waves has been developing since the 27th of June. We should expect a move up based on EW. Again, let your indicators do the talking.
Mid-Term: DOWN
Short-Term: UP
A sideways pattern made of 3 waves has been developing since the 27th of June. We should expect a move up based on EW. Again, let your indicators do the talking.
Mid-Term: DOWN
Short-Term: UP
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MP, really like your blog and the analysis. FWIW the first two trading days of July formed consecutive doji's. From what I understand since I am no Candlestick expert, this is usually a setup that precedes a significant move in either direction. Considering Jul 4th is an astrological turn date and also a holiday, something could occur as early as Wed or Fri.
ReplyDeleteMy money is on a down move considering the considerable technical resistance just above and the fact that USD chart appears ripe for a reversal after a significant rally.
Thanks Awakening.. From an EW perspective, the pattern is suggesting an upward move to come. But my indicators have not confirmed as the short-term trend is still in an UP position. Once the short-term can come down then I would then flip the short switch on.
DeleteIs it possible a astrological even on July 4th be a continuation of the uptrend?
I know you read Platy's blog and Jul 4th is a potential turn date for S&P500 and then on Jul 5th is possibly a major one for USD. USD appeared to be possibly "rolling over" yesterday but today it blasted off to higher highs. So with one or two more trading days for USD (assuming it continues slightly higher), I cannot fathom how it could proceed to enter warp drive and rocket even higher on Jul 5th.
DeleteThe SPX daily chart is also trading odd recently since the Jun 24th bottom. Initially it appeared to be forming an upwedge (then got violated), but then with Jun 28th reversal it appeared to instead be forming an up channel (possibly violated today but still within parameters), and thus moving forward if it proceeds to get a print of 1600 or less then it was never a wedge or channel but some bearish rounded shouldering type action.
Another blog that I follow anticipates SPX moving towards 1660 in early to mid July before declining. But that thesis would run out of time before hitting such a target because it requires penetrating both the daily 50-MA and the recently broken Nov 2012 support line that now acts as strong resistance. Technically I cannot see it exceeds even 1650 unless it rallies right to near end of July.
Yes I think the USD will go much higher. At least that is what my charts are telling me. Today's action seems to put the emphasis that it is intent on going higher. With a shortened day it might just do that on Friday.
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