“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Thursday, 6 March 2014

6 Mar 2014

Another non-event day.  The top is a bit flat and in my opinion this does not make a top, but I'm not saying a top can't potentially be in.  As always, tops are never predictive until after the fact.  I will be looking for tomorrows price movement for clues.  We do have the SPX trying to break above an upper angle line provided in the chart below.  The daily chart has put in a reversal candle so this should be taken into consideration also.  If today was the top, then it plays well with a 5th year anniversary from the 2009 bottom.  A negative divergence also appears to be calling for a top of sorts, but is in overbought and price is susceptible for acceleration to the upside.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

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5 comments:

  1. obe6 March 2014 at 17:02

    Cowan had called January for the major high. It was around the 21st or 24th area. Today he took it off of his web site. My question is it normal for him to be that far off?

    ReplyDelete
  2. MP6 March 2014 at 17:23

    If you look at the Date he is leaning towards, its the May 2013 date that he was promoting. This date in many ways is a good top even if the indexes have moved higher.

    The Bullish percentages have never made a new high since then. Summation index also has not broken the May high. The FTSE still retains that high, and the same can be said for the percent of stocks above 200day MA. UTIL still lower than the May high. Bonds also topped out in May of 2013. Turkeys market has also topped in May.

    Notables also are the Asian Markets where most have not made higher highs since May 2013.

    I don't know if I can give you a definite answer of the Jan 2014 high as the "REAL" high. But what I do know is that Since May 2013 many sentiments and beliefs have not seen highs. Before a market crashes or goes down there must be a silent conviction of a bad economy. Many insiders have already been moving out of their bullish position. I think we are close, but in a yearly or longer term chart in general a few months is just a blip in a bigger picture.

    Hope I have at least helped explain some of this disconnect.

    ReplyDelete
  3. obe9 March 2014 at 22:00

    You can read Cowan's January high call on his web site and click on market calls.

    ReplyDelete

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