8 Jul 2014

Our ST turned negative right at the market open.  The EW pattern though cannot be confirmed as a complete 5 wave which would have increased the chance for a CIT.  Therefore at the moment, it cannot be ruled out that this is just a corrective wave pattern and that higher highs are still in place.

Since the ST has moved to a negative and down-trending signal, we should keep short until we have a reversal or a momentum confirmed to the downside.

It is hard to assess if the pattern formed during the 26th of June to the 7th of July is a corrective pattern of sort.  The move down from yesterdays high seems to be too deep yet we have not violated what we deem to be wave - 1 (Green).  I can only say that we need more time for the pattern to complete based on EW or that I am wrong in the count and the move up during late June to early July is indeed corrective and is an ongoing structure that is longer in time.  The possibilities of the EW pattern has expanded, therefore I will just skip this until I get more clarity.  Our ST is still the one to follow regardless.

On a daily scale, we have a negative divergence that developed just before the move this morning.  This on a daily basis is bearish and should last a few days at the "least".  We are just shy of touching the upper trend line that has been guiding prices in a channel since May and June of 2013.  So with our market sentiment still being bullish longer term, there is still a good chance that prices will still make their way upwards in the near future.  I will update when sentiments have changed...

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Daily: