17 Apr 2015 - You Were Warned..

Well.. A bit dramatic for a title, but the point is that this was an expected impulsive move lower.  how low will be the question in the coming trading week. 

The market wasted no time moving to OS out of the gate in the intra-day charts.  This would have been the clue to an accelerative move lower, and possibly signalled earlier on a lower timeframe.  The price have bounced back above the 200ma of the 60min chart acknowledging a strong case for a support.  This move on an EW could just be a minute move wave-ii so I expect a rally, possibly back to the 60min 75ma or to fill the gap which is all the way up there.  I say this because wave 2s in general can retrace almost all of the move of wave 1 (if it is the right count of course).  But as part of a bigger picture wave-3 we might just continue where we left off at the close and keep dropping.  This is the reason why trends are important, so that you don't get caught on the wrong side of the impulsive or accelerative move.

The ST has also turned down and should indicate a bearish trend for a few days to week depending on how volatile price gets.  Some are suggesting that this is a triangulating pattern, therefore we should keep an eye on the trend line connecting the Mid-March low and the April low.  Nothing can be taken for granted, and if that trend line happens to break, well then we should look at the next support at 2040 then to the 2020 area where the 200ma on the daily chart sits.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN