12 Jun 2015 - 20 Week or Weak

Looking back at a larger time frame this past few days, I realized that the SPX has been testing the 20 week MA Since Jan. of this year.  But that was not the odd part since the 20 week or 20 day Moving Averages has always seen major price support.  The odd thing about it this time is that it is hugging the 20 week MA.  Therefore in my opinion, any break of this line (currently at 2089.57) could bring a significant push down to its 2027 or 1980 support.

Looking for impulsive moves on an EW point of view is a double edged sword.  I say this because on one hand you can link it to either a 3rd or C wave move.  On the other hand, an impulsive move with gaps makes it hard to count and can skew the pattern.  So we are more likely not seeing a complete picture.  Best way to analyse EW would be to use the counts as a possible option but remaining dedicated to price / signal momentum. 

Yesterdays move up was impulsive and looked like a 5 wave affair, however todays move down is also impulsive in nature.  So with this info, we can only say with certainty that the signals the indicators are giving is much better in determining direction.

The ST is still in an upward direction, but the intra-day chart has already shown an OS bias.  Therefore, Mondays open would be key to knowing how to pull the trade.  A rally out of in OS range on the intra-day charts next week would have us in SYNC with the ST signal, but a prolonged stay at OS by the intra-day charts risks more impulsive or accelerative moves to the downside. 

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

Note: With the Greece issues hanging around the minds of politicians and markets, we should expect volatility to be present, and patterns can change, but only for a short time.  Many technicians know that on a longer term perspective, the markets would hard pressed for long term manipulation.