20 Aug 2015 - Bounces Harder To Come By...

With the close below the 200 day, the market is critical, and I usually give it 3 days to pull out of a hole, before I call it what it is.  But tomorrow is Friday and well the weekend will be long for the bulls if markets close tomorrow still below its 200 day moving average.  Keep this in mind as the risk is high for markets to slide due to our indicators pointing south.

This market is looking like the California drought,  liquidity is pretty dried up.  The push by futures lower after today's close doesn't spell confidence builder either.  However this is not a 1 day market event.  Therefore, those underwater or in a losing trade should look at their charts tonight and look for an exit strategy.  Yes, the market could bounce, but ultimately you still need a confirmation of that bounce as a real bounce.

We have to the right of our blog the market indicator that has been in Bear mode since June 9th, and with the clustering of the ST's in recent weeks, we got a clue that a move would be volatile.  Indeed today was pretty volatile.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Next stop... 2020 SPX if we cannot break above the 200 day MA.

Note: The daily chart has an indicator that is not even close to OS, yet prices have already surpassed the last lows made in March and early July.  Although this is a positive divergence it is more in my belief as an indicator that has not reached its OS level, which means prices have a high risk of accelerating some more.