30 Sept 2015 - End Of Month Look

Well we finally ended the month and now comes Oct. where Mr. Armstrong has predicted in his economic model that we should start at turn lower.  However this is economics not market, so we shall see if they both reflect the same sentiments. You can read more of it HERE.

The monthly charts has closed with a red bar with a non-reversal candle.  The indicators are still bearishly cautious, meaning that we are bearish but that we should keep cautious for a possible turn up.  If this should happen, the market would then be bullish again with a strong bias.  The indicator should come out of OB for the SPX to become overtly bearish on a monthly scale, but since its still in OB, there is still a chance that any turn-a-round could abruptly turn the markets bullish.

In these cases, we are at that stage where we are standing on a thin line and we should get an answer sooner than later on whether this current draw down is in fact as real a bear market it is.  There are still many who think this is just a correction, and there are arguments to be made to support this idea, but I based my analysis on my indicators that tells me this is a bear market,  however we should be open to both possibilities at all times and should never be complacent.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

29 Sept 2015 - A Pause Is Good

A pause in markets today was good.  When price relentlessly move without any breathing room, price tend to have a strong pull back.  For bears this would be a good pause if one is looking for more downside.  The LL I was looking for has not happened but is getting close.  Once we get this, we should look for that positive divergence for a clue to a bottom.  Based on the formation of the pattern from mid Sept. high to the current low, the waves could not be considered complete for an impulsive wave.  This suggest that a B-wave corrective bottom is still possible.   I spoke of this last week and said that a correction could still be under way.  Whether this move from the May or July high in the markets is the start of a longer bear market or just a corrective bull market needs to be watched carefully due to possible A-B-C (Bullish), 1-2-3-4-5 (Bearish), and 1-2, i-ii (Bearish), that are all still valid.  Sentiments however have not changed and we still are bearishly bias.

Martin Armstrong and his economic model has us at a turning point between Sept 30 - Oct 1st.  Lets keep this in mind as well.

This Bear Is Just Waking Up!

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: We are now at a price acceleration risk, so keep the longs limited.

28 Sept 2015 - Close To A Lower Low

This Lower Low should be looked at carefully.  There is a chance that prices might bounce once this lower low is achieved due to the positive divergence that is occurring in the charts being monitored.  There is also a possible target of 1800 we spoke of last week that could take place but we need to see what the indicators are telling us.  Although there is a chance that we are taking less profit if we are to act on the divergence rather than the target, often times a profit is better than not having one at all.

If however signals stay in OS in your time-frame, the best thing to do is to stay in the short position until you get out of the range in which case you would also cover those shorts.  Perhaps the market will tell us more tomorrow of its intentions, but at the moment the 1825 - 1800 lower targets are good probabilities.  Nothing goes straight down unless its a crash...  If you are unsure, the other option would be to relieve half of the position just in case.

Prices have already broke my Gann Angle that was drawn for a few months now on my daily charts.  This could play a vital role in how strong or weak the market is.  Therefore, now is not the time to relax, and for those preparing for the day of reckoning, this week would also be important.  We are at a "HIGH RISK" of an acceleration to the downside, so any long position is at risk of being left behind.  It is just human nature to hold on to a position because it is not worth it for you to lose money on it until its too late.  This is why I make it a point to study accelerations of price and determine trend.

SEN: Beairsh
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Aug 26th 2015:

Today:

60 Min.:

25 Sept 2015 - Unchanged Excitement

Without volume pushing price up, one can only deduce what would happen eventually.  This push lower at the end of the day was a good one at that.  The bulls could not support the rally that started earlier today before the open.  We still remain range bound, and should start seeing next week a decision to an upside or downside to close out the month.  This is an important close as this keeps us either in a bearish trend on a monthly scale or if we have bottomed.  The fact that any sentiments in this time-frame would last a few months would be a bad sign for the bulls if the index closes down by the end of the month.

So far the lower time frames look to be forming a positive divergence between indicators and price, but would need for price to make a lower low to confirm.

The rally today was also stopped out by the 60min 75 MA.  Therefore price remains weak and I remain bearish at this point.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Overnight EW Update BULLISH

The EW count I am presenting at the bottom is a possible short-term Bullish count which still has the index in a corrective pattern.  Depending on how impulsive the next move is and in which direction will determine the validity of this count.  Therefore, for this count to work the index will need to make an impulsive move up near below the 200 day MA at 2035-2040.

This count can also be a very very bearish omen in that a strong move lower once this pattern is complete should be devastatingly obvious.

24 Sept 2015 - Lock Step

Yesterdays post was accidentally saved instead of being posted, so it was posted earlier this morning.  The analysis from that post was as good as it gets. Early morning we had a push lower to complete what shows to be a 5 wave pattern in the intra-day chart.  Prices also rebounded this afternoon to close right near yesterdays closing level which I also said would be most likely be the case ( a range bound) few days for price.  This move back to the 4th wave is nothing new to EW analysts, but again this is in favour of a completed 5 wave pattern.

The issue now is to determine if the corrective wave for a wave 2 up is over or that the low today was a wave 2 bullish count (not labelled on chart).  I did not label this on the chart due to us concentrating on the bearish trends due to bearish sentiments, but we cannot eliminate these possibilities.  Since we are now at a critical point, we can have two things happen.

Bullish scenario would have the count change from Pink b wave to a, and Pink c wave to b.  The low today will then be called c-wave for 2.  While the bearish is labelled on the chart below.  An impulsive move tomorrow will do quite a few damages if this is a 3rd wave push higher as 3rd waves are most impulsive, while a bearish 3rd wave would also do the same, but on a downside bias.

While yesterdays positive divergence was negated, today's positive divergence was not, and we got a subsequent rally out of it.  We should look for indicators in the intra-day to show us the way tomorrow.  Any OB / OS condition tomorrow will be the dominant factor in my views.  If we are indeed starting a Green 3rd wave, it wont be a surprise that waves at this point could be hidden and not fully viewed by the naked eye as it gaps or accelerates down.

We should still remain on a bearish mentality because we are at an advantage to stay with trend.  Someone asked me if we could see a possible black Friday.  Well based on a wave 3 push lower we could, but we cannot use EW alone to decipher a fallout.  So far with today's move we are still in SYNC with the bearish sentiment and it becomes a high probability.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

23 Sept 2015 - Corrective Triangle

Sorry folks, This analysis was saved last night instead of being posted...


The intra-day move in the SPX has formed a possible triangulated shape which is consistent of wave 4 or B.  At this point, the only wave that would be close to the bearish sentiment would be that of a sub-wave 4.  Overnight the ES has made a lower price, but by open price were bullish to unchanged.  As the day progressed we had price in the ES move lower but with no new low.  This movement preserved the SPX's low made yesterday.  With this break we could have a possible 5 wave structure and should see a rebound back to the level we are at now.  Judging by this analysis, it is in my opinion that we should be range bound for a few days.

Aside from EW analysis, our indicators are still in a bearish state and I look for high probability of downside results.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Remember that EW is only for us to view possible ways price might move, in a scenario that best fits our technical analysis, but should not be used as the only means of analysis.

22 Sept 2015 - Nice Rally, But Still Bearish

End of day rally was impressive, but prices still in double digit loss.  The acceleration to the downside was expected especially when indicators are in OS.  The one thing I noticed this morning was the positive divergence that the indicator and price was giving, but towards the afternoon all that disappeared and this should be concerning and could mean lower lows.  If this does come to fruition tomorrow, we would also have a possible 5 waves down to complete the 1st structure, but only if it is shorter than the wave 3 count.  In EW a wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the 3 impulsive waves.  Therefore if tomorrows move is much more pronounced and long then it is possible that we are subdividing the waves.  Whatever the count is, we can only use it as a guide and try to confirm it with additional sentiments or indicators.

The fact is that prices still remain below the 60 min. charts MAs.  This serves to be bearish with surprises to occur to the downside.  I am looking for a breach below the crash low and hopefully it will tell us of the next move to come once it happens.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

21 Sept 2015 - 60 Min. Study

Last week the 60 min. chart showed how price couldn't stay above its 200 MA.  This week however, I am looking for that same 200 MA to be the resistance and the trigger point for a push lower.  Anytime it exceeds this level or stays above it will become bullish and at the least a few hours or days.  The two moving average I am showing below are the two MA's that are important to me as prices can be seen respecting these values.  More importantly though is that they are both looking to converge again.  Although using a 50 MA could give you a faster indicator, using the 75 smooths out the swings, and volatility in price.  So far price are below both these Moving Averages and still under the 200 day MA.

We are still in a down market and I don't see that changing anytime soon.  There is also a high probability of an acceleration to the downside so long positions should be minimized or given attention in case one needs to exit their position.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

18 Sept 2015 - Damn If You Do.. Damn If You Don't..

I might have used this title before, but worth the title for this week, as nothing the FED can say can twist the market into a good mood.  Holding rate could have been good news, yet it was bad news...  Now everyone is jumping on the "bad news is bad news" bandwagon.

I was off by 3 points in the SPX low that I estimated would hit 1950.  But what I was looking for was a 5 sub-wave move and I got it.  With OS conditions at higher time frames we are at risk of an acceleration down and being in the same trend as our sentiments as well as an ST that also turned down today, the risk and probability is even greater for an occurrence.  However, the EW suggest that since the 5 wave sub-wave is complete, we should see a corrective move up...  I will treat it as such and just wait it out as nothing can be gained by playing a short-term counter trend play.

There are numerous things to note with current situation.  First off, we not only had a weekly reversal candle, we also had that candle hit resistance at its weekly 75 MA.  Also mentioned above is the ST turning down which could last for a few days or weeks.  With all things in SYNC, this becomes a low risk trade to the downside that should last days to weeks.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note:  Please be mindful that due to the severity of the push down in late Aug., there is a possibility that a complete count could already been had but the nature of the push lower would not show up in the chart to confirm a complete EW.  This is always a possibility when an impulsive manner happens.  Therefore there is many who are not considering this rally into Mid-Sept. as a Wave 2 corrective pattern and could be already producing a wave 3 or (C-wave move lower for those corrective camp).

17 Sept 2015 - Yellen Be Yellin' WTF

Whatever was said didnt work.  Markets sold off after the FED opened its mouth.  On an EW perspective this was a given, but on a fundamental point of view, the FED either has lost credibility or has market spooked that economy is weak and holding is confirming it.

Either way, none of these results are good.  Sentiment basically said it all today during the last hour of trading.  A bearish engulfing candle is one that can be seen in the hourly.  Another is the 200 MA of the 60min chart which prices did not take and hold.  Instead it pierced it and produced a tail with a close below it, which is can also be considered a reversal candle.

Sentiments remain bearish and so do I.  Im not smart enough to fight the trend...

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

16 Sept 2015 - Disappointment

Disappointment will be the name of the game tomorrow whether or not you are for or against FED Hike.  So far from yesterdays observation, markets seem to be optimistic that FED wont raise rates, and it carried over today.  EW counts have been altered yet again, but this just serves to show potential moves of course not trading confirmation or facts.

Most important to note is that prices are just under the 200 moving average of the 60min chart.  If these MA are important to the daily charts it will be important to all time-frames.  So watch for this tomorrow.

My EW bias tells me that whatever the decision by the FED, the markets will eventually make its way lower.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

15 Sept 2015 - Rally Party..

Seems to me like today's market rally is in strong belief FED wont raise rates.  Imagine if it believed FED would infuse Qinfinity...  The pattern drawn yesterday has been revised to show potential moves, but should not be followed as a fact.  If I was ever right on my pattern calls it would be due to good guess work.. lol.  Therefore the sentiments of the indicator are the ones to follow.

I am expecting volatility tomorrow so I would also caution that if prices moves violently up and down that indicators will lag.  Good Luck to all tomorrow..

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

14 Sept 2015 - Approaching Clarity?

The obvious here is that the eventuality of a rate hike is near, but will it be this month?  Some speculate that the FED needs to raise rates now to build up some cushion for what is about to come for the rest of the world.  While others think the FED should hold or even add more QE for fear it might derail an already weak world economy from growth.

I think that the FED has its choice on either a "hold and see", or "raise and stay".  With this move I think it allows them a more stable ground to work with compared to other options available.  It would still move the markets short term but it would dissipate quickly.  However, the long term outlook does not see us coming out of an already bearish sentiment, so time will tell how long the FED can keep delaying the inevitable unwind.  Below I have drawn up a possible pattern that could unfold based on a good news FED Wednesday...  The key here though is the low made by the 10% draw down that I mentioned last week as well.

I believe the range of indecision to be between 1972 and 1920.  A break of either these levels would constitute bearish bullish outcomes.  So be on the lookout for the breaks.  A breakdown could land prices at the 1800 level, while a break upwards could push us near 2040-2050.

Indicators are still showing bearish trends, and we must keep this at the top of our priority.  Options expiry also occurs this week so it is a very interesting position to be in and highly likely a volatile one.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

11 Sept 2015 - Isn't It Evident?

This pause from the 10% draw down lows, is evidently waiting for the FED to push it in the right direction.  Based on these EW patterns, it can go both ways, but does have us going down next week perhaps before FED day.  How far down will be the question, and once this is answered the direction will be much clearer before the FED speaks.  The ultimate tell into the markets next move is the critical low made  two weeks ago.  If prices exceed this before Wednesday we should see a rally, and will probably be used as an excuse for FED to hold off on the hike.  However, if prices rally to post crash highs, then a scenario where the corrective pattern has ended and that any news would be sold off as bad news.

So far nothing has changed in the bearish sentiment, and the strength still favours the shorts.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

The PA indicated an acceleration down yesterday but did not see anything significant other than in the intra-day charts where indicators were at OS yet did not give anything up.

10 Sept 2015 - Techs Are Useless

Although in our field of work technical analysis is of out most importance, the same cannot be said for those out of the country call center tech support.  I have had to deal with computer and software issues all day and was not able to watch the market today, and thank goodness there wasn't anything major.  At the end of it all, I had to fix their problem and pay them to protect my computer.

After a whole day all I can see here is that we had a heck of a morning before the open with whipsaws abound.  Then when markets opened we whipsawed back up again.  Based on today's move up it looks to be a 3 wave pattern which suggest a corrective pattern and should resume downward.  The line in the sand for me is 1920.  This is also my Gann angle that has been acting as support the past weeks.

Don't discount this wedging formation as a possible continuation pattern.  The ST has still not turned down and prices ended the day in the positive.  if the intra-day goes into OS tomorrow, I would be looking for more acceleration downward.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA:  NA

All EW counts are still valid.  Lets keep an eye on it tomorrow to see if the situation changes.

9 Sept 2015 - Reversal Of Fortune

Seems to be the right title for today's trade.  While most were bullish, the possible count we had last night was on a correct course.  Although I could have just gotten lucky for being on a right count but on a sub-wave level.

Yesterday I stated that we are most likely on an ABC pattern with the C-wave commencing.  This impulsive manner confirmed our forecast for an impulsive move, but that pretty much where all the similarities lie.  Today by the end of the day, prices have dramatically regressed and also made an impulsive move.  One that we could call the 1st sub-wave of a 5th or a 3rd wave primary.  While all these counts meshes with the movement of price.  I could also add another count that has us still in a corrective push.  This is the problem of EW.  So while our indicators are bearish, EW theory suggest that we might also get a pattern that is sub-dividing causing today's regression as a c-wave of a sub wave b.  Confused already?  Well, it doesn't mean our count yesterday was wrong, but we have to keep options open for a corrective pattern that is not done.  A lower low from the last crash low would confirm that a 5th or 3rd wave primary was at hand, but it would be too late.

So what to do?  Indicators, that's what works and that's what we promote here on this site.  The impulsive reversal will definitely do damage to the ST and should turn the ST to the downside tomorrow, unless we get another reversal to the upside.  With the intra-day looking bearish a small position could be initiated on the speculation of more bearish move.  However, one must be cautious with the ST still being in an up trend.  The risk is still to the bearish conditions but we do not need to be chasing price before confirmation.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA

The counts are getting crowded, but the option I did not present yesterday was the (blue a-b-c) count which could count as a sub-wave.

Nothing to fear on a bearish sentiment if you are on the right side of the trade / trend.  Yesterday we also discussed the implication of the 20 day MA and the 75 MA on the 60 min. chart.  Both of which caused a resistance and support breakdown.

8 Sept 2015 - Back To School

Its back to school here, and so it seems markets are back as well evidence in today's rally, but markets still seems undecided as to whether it wants the FED to hike or hold.  I would say that a push lower in prices would put the FED in a jam to hold rates this of course just delays the inevitable.  However a market rise here could allow the fed to push the button and see how markets react.  At this point anything is possible, and I would not rule out a rigged market.

We pay to play, but we don't get advance of the FED strategy that some are privy to.  But the market itself is bigger than the FED and does not bend to manipulation over time.  If it does bend, it would only serve as a springboard for a much violent payback.  Ultimately markets will normalize again.

The rally today was a good one.  A 2.5% increase is nothing to sniffle at, but prices are still within the range that can derail any hope of a continued bull market.  Prices are still below the 20day MA and sentiments are still bearish.  The rally since late August has not broken above the 75 moving avg. of the 60min chart.  We would need to see if price holds above for at least 3 days to confirm a support.  The EW pattern seems to be forming an abcde which could explain the zigzagging pattern we are seeing recently.  Since a triangle setup like this only occurs in a B wave or 4th wave, at least we can look at it as a corrective move.  With this corrective move however, we can expect the SPX to rally as high as 2030 - 2040 (A=C).

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

4 Sept 2015 - Good Job Bad Job

I guess it didn't matter what the jobs data produced.  One thing was clear, today's jobs report was deadlocked.  The data showed there was a drop in unemployment, yet there were less jobs added than anticipated.  So what does a market do with a situation like this?  Maybe dump the market so FED's don't raise rates I suppose.  Although it is still not clear if they would raise, today's move in the market just inches us closer to the possibility of a pause, because no one likes a rate hike.  To me it doesn't really matter, because it will eventually come.  So while we wait and trade, lets look at what happened recently and see if we had any changes to our indicators.

Prices are still hovering above the Gann angle that we have produced in our daily charts in the past. Despite the throw under, prices still kept its cool and paused here and as time and price rise with the angle it would be prudent to watch an eventual break of this or price need to move away from this line.  Any break of this line would have us moving much lower, perhaps 1800-1700 before we see any bounce.  By this point if this scenario comes to fruition, EW would dictate a bear and that a 1st decline has been solidified and that future patterns will only delay the inevitable.

The ST was at risk of turning bullish again today even with the negative moves the last two days.  This though did not materialize as prices regressed by the last 3 min. of trading.  So the bearish scenario still stands and the bulls can sweat it out over the long weekend.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

With the intra-day being in OS and the daily signals closing in, there is a risk for an acceleration to the downside.  Just something to keep in mind.

My sentiment is that the FED would rather pause than hike or do more QE.  Therefore a draw down in markets would see this happen.  A fine line between having to raise rates and complete collapse would put us within the 1800 range with a too close for comfort for anti-QE at 1700 (20% from top).

3 Sept 2015 - Waiting For A Job

Seems nothing moves markets now other than numbers, and so far this week it seems that way with only one data that matters... Tomorrows.  The signals in both Intra-day ES and SPX cash are mixed.  Although both charts are down trending, one is more bullish than the other.  In this sense I can't really get a clue as to the outcome tomorrow could bring.  But we do what we do best and that is to stay with the ST until it turns the other way.

So far today that trend is still down.  We could be seeing a sub-dividing pattern in price which looks to extend a B wave abc.  This of course would need to be confirmed, but it's not a priority to have the right count.  What I can tell is that we are still corrective, and looking for a continuation lower.  This is in combination with our longer term sentiment which gives us a better risk reward ratio.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

2 Sept 2015 - Extended Correction

The market is a non event today, and based on my EW analysis we are still in a corrective condition. The SPX is still in a down trend and being held in support by the Gann line.  I suppose the price action is not surprising as there are no OS or OB condition on the immediate time frames ranging from Daily through to the Intra-day.

For a bearish view, an acceleration downward should form with impulse to confirm.  The indicators should also stay bearish and in OS territory.  Currently the ES intra-day chart is in OB which gives us that subwave C up to possibly finish the correction and have us continue lower as soon as tomorrow.  The overnight though needs to come out of that OB range and keep us bearish before the open in the market tomorrow.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Since the sentiment is bearish, it would be easier to concentrate on possible bearish counts, but cannot rule out any and existing bullish counts out there.

1 Sep 2015 - New Month.. Same Bull?

I guess it would depend on how you look at market to see if you're in the same hole.  Or it could all be just be one $#!t hole of a market bullish or bearish I suppose.

The overnight session last night in the ES provided us with a clue as to the nature of the trend, and this brought about a sense that the market was indeed impulsing to the downside.  This of course is dependent on the signals entering OS and staying there.  This is exactly what happened and although markets made a failed rally in the morning session, it was abundantly clear that the trend was bearish and that price would eventually resume its trend.  So on a market sense of view it was crap, but on an analysis point of view, it was a success even if our signals were mixed yesterday.

We had enough clues to tell us where the next days market might flow.  This does not happen everyday but we need to be one step ahead as much as possible or as close as possible.  The 20 month MA and the 20 day MA were important in this analysis as well as it has broken down from a long term support.

The market close today pushed our ST to the downside which puts us in SYNC with the Sentiments.  With an intra-day OS signal we could expect another acceleration or impulsive day tomorrow.  There is no guarantee of this, but the risk of one is high.  So we need to be on the right side of this trade.  The futures market has also closed in OS, therefore giving us more conviction of trading short.

Looking at the daily chart we also hit a low on our Gann angle.  Again, price is aware and respecting this line / angle.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

UPDATE:
I forgot to add that a bullish count here has the 5th wave failing to make a new low last week and the impulsive move up from that low is a 1st wave or a WAVE-A then pull back currently is a Wave B or 2.  The next price pattern should clear some of these options up or cancel them.