8 Sept 2015 - Back To School

Its back to school here, and so it seems markets are back as well evidence in today's rally, but markets still seems undecided as to whether it wants the FED to hike or hold.  I would say that a push lower in prices would put the FED in a jam to hold rates this of course just delays the inevitable.  However a market rise here could allow the fed to push the button and see how markets react.  At this point anything is possible, and I would not rule out a rigged market.

We pay to play, but we don't get advance of the FED strategy that some are privy to.  But the market itself is bigger than the FED and does not bend to manipulation over time.  If it does bend, it would only serve as a springboard for a much violent payback.  Ultimately markets will normalize again.

The rally today was a good one.  A 2.5% increase is nothing to sniffle at, but prices are still within the range that can derail any hope of a continued bull market.  Prices are still below the 20day MA and sentiments are still bearish.  The rally since late August has not broken above the 75 moving avg. of the 60min chart.  We would need to see if price holds above for at least 3 days to confirm a support.  The EW pattern seems to be forming an abcde which could explain the zigzagging pattern we are seeing recently.  Since a triangle setup like this only occurs in a B wave or 4th wave, at least we can look at it as a corrective move.  With this corrective move however, we can expect the SPX to rally as high as 2030 - 2040 (A=C).

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP