16 Nov 2015 - Bullishly Cautious

The SPX was true to form, and the expected lower low was achieved today to the 2020 mark.  Does this suggest a continued lower projection?  This we do not know, so what we can use to analyse the short-term is to look at the intra-day behaviour which at the moment is bullish.  Since our ST is still down trending, we need to be cautious into the long trend or rally, however you look at it.  Once the SYNC is back in place can we consider a more solid case for a protracted down-trend.

We should consider though that a possible diagonal triangle is forming and that this would allow for a new ATH to be established.  Now, this is just an option I am presenting and not backed up by facts.  But if we are looking at the August lows as a corrective pattern which has us continuing an impulsive up-trend we should then consider that this move up currently is finishing off a 5th wave that should take us to new ATH or FAIL.  If the ST turns up, I would look at this option more seriously.

Price in the SPX is currently testing the 200 day MA resistance.  So another clue as well is to see if we get a pull back in 3 waves or more.  This should also help us with the steps we can look at next.

SEN: Bearish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Note: If the intra-day signals move back into OS territory, expect an acceleration downwards, and a new low could play out.