I have updated the trend line (Blue Dotted) to reflect that of the daily trend line for the 60 min. chart. As we push further into mid-year, we can clearly see that the 200 day MA inching lower as well. From my experience the 200 avg. always gets hit at the right time when it has landed within a zone of significant support/ressitance. We might not hit the 200 MA in price, but it certainly will try. Since we are in that range now (looking across the chart for lows and highs). I would say that the range could extend down to as ow as the 1990 area which is close to the 61.8% ret. and the 2nd level (Blue Dotted) trend line.
We should look to see if we get some sort of diagonal trending triangle into these resistance. If we replace the 4th wave (Blue) with a b-wave instead and the 3rd wave (Blue) with an a-wave, then a c-wave (Blue) would extend in around where the 200 day MA is sitting at right at the moment. Coincidence? Remember that the 200 day is trending lower so where a=c (Red) is concerned, price might just arrive at the 2013 SPX by the time the 200 day also arrives at this point.
SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP
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