31 May 2016

EOM is here.  Suggest uptrend still intact, with signals entering OB.  This puts a risk for a longer term acceleration higher.  I would be looking at a possible b - wave end soon or a 5th wave end if signals in the monthly hits a neg. divergence.

SEN: Bullish (Resumed uptrend May 27th)
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: May 31st (Uptrend Bias)

27 May 2016 - Divergence Negatif

Intra-day Neg. divergence present, while it may not play out a short term play to the downside with any trend in SYNC would be the best strategy to take until the signal turns up or the ST has its own CIT to the downside.  C-wave down or 3rd wave down of C would be a close EW count which would expect an impulsive outcome.

SEN: Bullish (Signal Has Turned Up May 27)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA (No signal present that is considered a good quality reset as price accelerates higher)

26 May 2016

Still risk of upside potential...

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA

25 May 2016

If everyone saw the H&S, is it real?  Doesn't really matter in my view.  Indicators will always win out.  The more you fixate the more you get fixed by the markets.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA (No Reset Signal Opportunity At The Moment)

24 May 2016

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA (Looking for Upward Biased Low Signal).

23 May 2016

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA (Looking for Upward biased reset)

20 May 2016 - Don't Fixate Too Much On Patterns

It's a given that patterns appear everyday for a technical traders life.  But it does not always pans out.  The same could be said for signals and sentiments, but as always it's in the strategy that we use that makes these analysis successful.

Daily has formed a positive divergence and confirmed today with the ST turning UP.  This is what I was watching for and did not see an extended OS condition which could have pushed price lower.  Instead by morning the intra-day signal along with price shot up and continued its bullish day.  There was a negative divergence it the futures market which resulted only in a small pull back.  This was not enough to change the sentiment by end of day.

This risk right now is for more upside due to the ST changing direction and the intra-day signals floating in OB levels.  

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)

ST: UP

PA: UP

R: NA (Looking for Upside entry opportunity)

19 May 2016 - One But Not The Other

So yesterday I spoke of the positive divergence that was occurring in the intra and daily charts.  I also mentioned that the signal in the intra-day chart should point downward and best if it is in the OS condition.  We got both today and prices pushed lower as a result.  The problem now is that with price pushing lower, we eliminated one positive divergence but still have another still in effect.  Therefore, a chance of a reversal or CIT still exists.

So you're probably asking what happens now.  Well from experience, I want to see prolonged stay at the OS or bearish range of our indicators.  Since the daily positive divergence is in question here, the lower time-frame would be the one to watch for that bearish staying power.  The next best thing is to watch for a reset of the signal for a top reducing the risk for a premature short entry.  Confirmation is always key.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA

18 May 2016 - Reversal

The low made today has provided for a positive divergence on the daily and intra-day basis.  While the H&S pattern is still valid and in play, It is prudent to keep the positive divergence in mind,  A drop of the signals in the intra-charts and into OS will certainly keep us pushing lower.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA

17 May 2016 - Feel Good Confirmations

The signal in the intra-charts exited early in the morning session giving a good entry point for short in sync with the ST down trend.  current conditions suggest continued move lower, but expect the unexpected.  An intra-day signal entering OS should uphold the downside sentiment and add risk for an accelerated move.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: May 17 (Down-side bias)

16 May 2016 Pos. Divergence

Positive divergence in intra-charts mentioned in last blog indicated the rally in the SPX today.  A reset now is in place for a downside move if intra-chart signal can return to down-trend and exit OB.  Watch for this tomorrow for confirmation of that reset opportunity.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
R: NA (Possible by open tomorrow if signal is down trend and out of OB)

Still expecting wild volatility swings...

13 May 2016 - No Kidding

If you didn't read my post yesterday, I mentioned that volatility is present and the conditions are not right for medium-term trades, but rather short-term trades.  Even the short-term is quite risky as trends at the moment are hard to find if you are not concentrated on localized and simplistic signals.  This is not the time to look at multiple indicators due to their varied results and the lack of time provided to have a sound analysis.  This only serves to confuse even the best.  Yesterday the reset signal bias was to the upside which was triggered due to the syncing with the ST.  But today this has changed mainly due to the ST turning down.  We do not have a reset signal available currently as signals are still OS and diverging positively.  The reset signal did see a rise in price today, but it was quite meek.  My support level still remains the major 200 day MA near 2013-2012 SPX level where it is on a slow downward trajectory.

Look for a possible "Short-term" bounce due to the positive divergence on the intra-charts, but be aware that the ST is now down so we are looking for a reset opportunity for a downside bias which could also break a H&S pattern that is forming.  This H&S pattern if broken has a 70 pt. downside target resulting in a possible support area near the 1970 level.

With the ST behaving erratically, the strategy and methodology still allows us to flip to the other side without much risk involved or hit with high losses.  With the "Sentiment" on a bullish but down trending position, there lies a risk that prolonged at this state can push the signal into bearish mode.  Ideally, there are two ways to play this "Sentiment".  If you are convinced of a bullish market then the course to take here would be to wait for the up-trend to resume and sync with the bullish sentiment.  On the other hand if you are bearish in a bullish sentiment, this would be considered a short-term trade (short) until a sync or confirmation can be applied to your position, in which case will become a hold on that bearish position.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA (Looking for any short-term top)

12 May 2016 - Volatility Exists

Do you have the stomach to stick with your convictions? These are the environment ideal for day traders, so do not consider these investment opportunities as conditions stay erratic and short-term. Need evidence? just look at ES futures and the numerous times price crossed up and down the 200 hour MA. 4 times in the span of 12 hrs. Trends will be hard to discover with these incoherent price actions.  However, signals do follow these volatility well when considering the lagging aspects as the advantage here.  Case in point, our ST still remains UP.  I am not obsessed with getting the precise CIT's,  just the vicinity for a good entry or small loss.  This is good risk management in my views.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th) Just to clarify that the down trending date would have been the ideal time for longs to sit and wait for a better entry point and not a suggestion to go short. Every Bullish or Bearish signals of a time-frame has a trend, but the larger picture remains until a confirmation of a change reveals itself.

ST: UP
PA: NA
R: May 12th (Up-side Bias)

Note: The reset is based on our ST signal indication, therefore the ideal situation for trades is to look for a sync in signals that would reap higher chance of a right outcome and minimizing a loss if it comes to one.

11 May 2016 - Made Yesterday.. Gone Today

What a reversal..  It looked like the market was doing great going into the last half of the trading day.  Didn't happen.  This could alter the ST by tomorrow, as today's price move can be classified as volatile.  We have to play with the hand that was dealt to us, and always adjusting through various conditions and this is just one of those conditions.  But lets not jump the gun, the ST is still trending UP so let us not speculate and instead get some confirmation.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: UP
ST: NA
R:  NA (No reset signal for Upside potential)

10 May 2016 - Know What You're Up Against

I would have been quick to post a reset in yesterdays chart but decided against it and did suggest a reset be triggered only if the intra-charts exits its OB range.  Clearly this did not happen and so a reset sell signal or short was nullified.  ST has turned up, therefore a reset to the upside or exit of a short position is now the priority.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Waiting for Upside reset signal

9 May 2016 - Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes

Seems the SPX is making a H&S pattern up here but can't really confirm until the neckline is broken at 2040 or so level.  So will we get some price action down to the knees and toes?  The ST is OS so there is still risk of acceleration down which would be in sync with a possible reset at todays high confirmed tomorrow if the intra-charts can get out of the OB range and start pushing down.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: May 3 Downside Bias (Reset trigger possible tomorrow to Downside).

6 May 2016 - Engulfing Bullish Reversal Daily Bar

Was that title a mouthful of what..  A word of caution though is that our ST is still hovering in OS territory.  The intra-day today produced that positive divergence I was watching out for and it comes as no surprise that it was the low made before the rally to the end of the day.  Since this is the intra-day, we can consider it as Bearish with a up trending overtone.  Now this is probably confusing statement, but this is where you need to figure out which time-frame you are using.  If you were longer term trader then these signals do not matter to you.  If you are a swing trader then the daily chart which is still bearish is what you will be following keeping in mind that a low is possibly in and you either take profits here or wait for the confirmation of an OS exit.  There are many times that conditioning ones self is the most complicated when it comes to trading.  We might see the signals, but we do not know how to react to it and start looking for other signals to help confirm the first and in turn do not know how to put it all together in a understandable manner.

So while the ST is still "Down" a cautious view should be taken with the positive divergence that occurred in the intra-day chart.  The "Reset" comes in handy when you have exited prematurely on a trade and looking to either get back in or have waited too long and now looking for an exit.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
R: May 3rd Downside bias

5 May 2016 - Acceleration Signal

The signals are in OS territory, and while the Bullish sentiment is still intact and there is a higher risk of a reversal up, it is a longer-term sentiment.  The ST however is down trending and OS which keeps the accelerated risk high.  The 60 minute chart is holding the price pattern without trying to break lows triggering a possible positive divergence.  The above mentioned is bias towards the bears at this point in time, and 200 day MA is the one to watch.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: May 3 Downside bias

Something of interest: https://twitter.com/capital_banco/status/723168198669946883

4 May 2016 - Bear Safe With No Positive Divergence

The bears live to play another day with yesterdays intra-day rally reset giving the push lower more momentum negating a possible positive divergence in the intra-day signals.  Cycle lows are being mentioned this week, but so far the ST is still on a downward track, therefore so will our reset signals.  Major support target still looks to be the 200 day MA near 2013 SPX which is down-trending also or at least sloping down ever so slowly.  While the longer term sentiment still looks bullish, the swing and short term traders should be more focused on the ST signals.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: May 3 Downside Bias

3 May 2016 - Positive Results

After the overnight session of the intra-day reset triggering to the downside yesterday, prices finally pushed lower.  This was accompanied by yesterdays negative divergence.  ST is still pointing DOWN which is in agreement with each other.  Significant target to watch for is still the 200 day MA.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: May 3 Down bias

2 May 2016 - Devious OB

You can never tell what an OB condition will churn up even when the sentiment is on a downside bias.  These intra-day resets have been signalling all day with price pushing higher throughout the day.  Ultimately the signals have formed a negative divergence on a intra-day level.  This on one hand would mean that we should reverse lower now, but with the OB notion, we should be watchful for a fake out.  The ST still points bearishly down, and overnight moves might reaffirm our sentiment and intra-day reset signals to the downside.  The reset signal down set last week still stands as the ideal entry point for exit or short entry.  A turn down tomorrow by the intra-day signals will confirm a reset down is in place here and a push higher will negate any new reset to take place.  Since I do not update this blog intra-day, you must do your own due diligence.  The 60 min. slow stoch. should help with that trigger of the reset once a crossover is confirmed.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
R: Apr 28 Down (Ideal Re-entry)