13 May 2016 - No Kidding

If you didn't read my post yesterday, I mentioned that volatility is present and the conditions are not right for medium-term trades, but rather short-term trades.  Even the short-term is quite risky as trends at the moment are hard to find if you are not concentrated on localized and simplistic signals.  This is not the time to look at multiple indicators due to their varied results and the lack of time provided to have a sound analysis.  This only serves to confuse even the best.  Yesterday the reset signal bias was to the upside which was triggered due to the syncing with the ST.  But today this has changed mainly due to the ST turning down.  We do not have a reset signal available currently as signals are still OS and diverging positively.  The reset signal did see a rise in price today, but it was quite meek.  My support level still remains the major 200 day MA near 2013-2012 SPX level where it is on a slow downward trajectory.

Look for a possible "Short-term" bounce due to the positive divergence on the intra-charts, but be aware that the ST is now down so we are looking for a reset opportunity for a downside bias which could also break a H&S pattern that is forming.  This H&S pattern if broken has a 70 pt. downside target resulting in a possible support area near the 1970 level.

With the ST behaving erratically, the strategy and methodology still allows us to flip to the other side without much risk involved or hit with high losses.  With the "Sentiment" on a bullish but down trending position, there lies a risk that prolonged at this state can push the signal into bearish mode.  Ideally, there are two ways to play this "Sentiment".  If you are convinced of a bullish market then the course to take here would be to wait for the up-trend to resume and sync with the bullish sentiment.  On the other hand if you are bearish in a bullish sentiment, this would be considered a short-term trade (short) until a sync or confirmation can be applied to your position, in which case will become a hold on that bearish position.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending May 5th)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA (Looking for any short-term top)