31 Dec 2013

I can't believe that we are already writing our last post for 2013.  Time has passed by fast this year, and it has been a great time as well.  I would like to thank the ever growing viewers of this site, and encourage you to make my blog a must read blog daily.  I always try to keep things simple and understandable for traders with basic or advanced principles. 

I hope that 2014 not only brings volatility, but also brings large profits for everyone in our small community.

Today we saw higher prices as indicated from yesterdays update.  We are tagging our upper angle again and seems to follow its time and price.  Looking at the time calculator, there seems to be a Jan 8 / Jan 12 date sticking out as a possible CIT (change in trend).  This is based on the Sq. of 144 calculator of 1768 and 1772 days from the 2009 lows.  Not sure if I am doing this calculation right but it is interesting nonetheless.

Going back to the basics, we do see a negative divergence forming in the intra-day charts.  We would still need to see our MT and ST trends to exit the overbought situation for us to see a sustained run to the downside.  We are only 11 pts away from our minimum target of 1860 from todays high and 31 pts away from our extended range of 1880 SPX.

MT: UP
ST: UP

Happy New Year !!!

GANN SQUARE SUPPORT / RESISTANCE UPDATE

Are we seeing a possible support now for the 1830 SPX level?  The ES movement sideways seems to suggest it, and although the SPX has not come close to the 1830 level, it has been moving identically sideways as well.

 

 

There is a suggestion that the SPX could possibly top out at 1860 - 1880. This would put 1860 in the resistance area of the 120 Deg. angle using the 60 Deg. overlay.

 The number is highlighted in purple to show where it falls.



30 Dec 2013

I am expecting prices for the SPX to make higher highs.

MT: UP
ST: UP

27 Dec 2013

It seems there is no stopping this acceleration.  Everyday is met with higher highs in prices, and only stops at each resistance angle we draw.  Today brought us a reactionary date from ICE cycles, but as expected, there was not much activity since everyone is still on the holiday mood and not checking the markets.

MT: UP
ST: UP

24 Dec 2013

No commentary tonight, but will leave you with a chart that shows prices have hit another one of our angles again.

MT: UP (Unconfirmed)
ST: UP

23 Dec 2013

Many are off on vacation, but prices still remain in an uptrend.  Low volume or not, markets are still working their magic.  I believe in an intra-day basis that there is another stab higher before we move lower.  We will assess how or what type of move down, when we get to that stage.

Before I continue, I would like to say that SPX 1830 is on the 135 Deg. of the Gann Sq. of 9 chart. Usually a nice resistance / Support.  In this case, it would be a resistance, how much remains to be determined.  The chart below shows 183 which I multiplied by 10 so I don't have to expand to such a big graph.

Todays high of 1829.75 proves there is resistance just above it.

MT: UP (Unconfirmed)
ST: UP

20 Dec 2013

We had our higher high.  The question now becomes "is this it?" or will it only be the 1st wave of that 5th wave.  ES seems to be making another wedging pattern, and we know what happened to the last wedge that formed.  That said, trends are still in favour of the upside so we should not jump into any conclusions.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP

19 Dec 2013

Prices was sporting a sideways pattern.  Looks as though it will break that high made in early Dec. once it resumes a continuation.n  Prices are following one of the underside of the angle, but pattern suggest a 4th wave of some kind.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP

18 Dec 2013

Our abcde scenario yesterday was on the dot.  We had an impulsive move up following the wedge which is typical behaviour just right after the pattern.  We should watch for a new high and watch for a 5 wave pattern to produce itself.  I believe that based on the cycle chatter out there that the 5 waves could complete somewhere near mid January.  So keep this date in mind.

Todays price action just blew by all the angles that I have drawn in the past.  This suggest that there are optimism everywhere.  Never base your analysis on news.. Why?  Well a few months ago a Taper was bad news and any talk of it dropped markets.  Todays decision however came with a surprise Taper... and what do you know markets rallied.  "It's all about time folks".

MT: DOWN
ST: UP

17 Dec 2013

Prices did retrace today according to yesterdays analysis.  The intra-day charts seem to show a potential of a wedge / abcde EW pattern.  Both of which is a bullish sign.  The bearish case scenario is that we have 1-2 1-2 count that could potentially setup a 3rd wave down in a minute degree.  A lower low tomorrow for the SPX would give us a possibility of a positive divergence.  So we must keep this option open.  There is the lower trend line of the wedge connecting blue a and blue c.  This could be the support where it would meet the red dotted line.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP

INTRA 17 Dec 2013

Seems we might have an ABCDE pattern that is forming a wedge at the same time.  This could be a clue to higher highs.

16 Dec 2013

Last Friday I mentioned that I believe that there is more downside due to the corrective pattern made previous days before.  Although todays price moved up, the price in the ES did make a significant low overnight just before the market opened today.  I do not know what this tells us, whether the move is done or if the SPX would catch up to the lows.  But after todays pop, prices started to move sideways again.  Therefore the bias is on an intra-day upside, while our Main and Short term trend remains down.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN

13 Dec 2013

It is my belief that we are in a Holding pattern and that the corrective phase is not over.  I do believe that next week should see us moving lower before we move higher.  That said, it seems to me that the Head N Shoulder pattern is the one to follow.  Targets for this measured move should be within the 1760 to 1750 range.  I mentioned yesterday that the daily lower BB line was pierced and that any move to the downside can only be sustained if the prices relieve itself by a pause or rally before proceeding lower.  So far so good I guess.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN

Be aware that the Daily Stoch. has reached oversold levels.  This is usually where to go short and not the other way.  The entrance into overbought or oversold usually keeps price at an accelerated or impulsive mode.

12 Dec 2013

Todays continued break down shows the strength of this impulse, and can either be summed up as a throw over or a continued push towards the 1750 zone.  This 1750 zone represents 161.8% of the green assumed A wave from B to C.  The intra-day stochastics might make a negative divergence so we should watch for this as a clue to a possible turn up.

We have also pierced the bottom of the BB line on a daily chart.  Therefore anything below this is not sustainable short-term and a correction is needed to alleviate the extreme if we are to continue moving down.  Alternatively, we can place a 3rd wave on the Green C Wave as a more bearish approach.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN

11 Dec 2013

Our short-term trend has turned down and a 5 wave pattern looked to have formed.  This either a C wave or a 1st wave of a secondary degree.  If this is a C wave, then it is most likely a C wave of a 4th and we should see the higher high that I am expecting.  We should see in the next day or two what the patterns come out as before we can make a call.  But if this is not satisfactory then the indicators are as good as they get.

A head and shoulder pattern from last Fridays analysis is still valid. Therefore, we must watch for this possibility.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN

11 Dec 2013 INTRA-DAY

The Trend has changed for the short-term and is inline with the weekly.  We would have to go with the down-trend if we close today with both indicators to the downside.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN (Unconfirmed)

10 Dec 2013

Yesterdays corrective process had not ended based on todays move.  That said, I think that prices for the SPX is still on its way upwards.

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: UP

9 Dec 2013

The patterns seem to show that there is further upside for the SPX and market.  The question is if we will make new highs marginally or shoot up.  We are currently resting on one of the Green dotted angle and another one is just overhead.

Main-Trend:  DOWN
Short-Term: UP

6 Dec 2013

Todays Jobs number pushed prices higher in the US markets.  Prices for the SPX has now come back up above the previous up trending angle.  We should watch for an intra-day pull back next week due to the fact that we are in a downward trending momentum.  If our short-term trend turns up next week, that is when we could go long on the positions.  A bearish note could have us count this up trend as an ABC up pattern.  So we do need that short term trend to confirm the move up.  We could also be setting up for a head and shoulder pattern so the push up today by way of the jobs number could just be a "Bull Trap".

Main-Trend: DOWN (Overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

The chart above shows what would happen if our H&S pattern were to unfold and what EW pattern might occur.  Now this is just a possible scenario since we are trending down still, so watch for it.We would however see a bullish move if we drop down in 3 wave pattern next week as the intra-day signals might suggest being on a downtrend.  So what to do here? with all these options?  I always go by my indicator first, and it never lies.  It can however be late, but never lies.  That being said, trend is down so surprise expectations is to the downside.

5 Dec 2013

SPX still holding the 60min 200ma.  A break below this could spell disaster.  Todays price action looks corrective and "should" move higher, but our indicators are still pointing to the down position.  This is where we need to be careful as the jobs numbers come out tomorrow.  Not that it matters but most likely will be the "It" factor for those who fundamentally believe that prices follow news.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

4 Dec 2013

Prices made a quick run down to the 1780 where the 200ma resides in the 60min chart.  Our intra-day is now pointing up again with a positive divergence.  Below the 60min chart is a possible EW count labelled on the 5min chart.  The most bearish would be the green 1-2-3-4-5 count, with the most bullish being the ABC in pink with an alternate B wave that could still be in the process.  It can go either way so be attentive at this point.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

Note: Todays daily candle bar produced a reversal candle, and so did the 60min bar, so watch for a biased move tomorrow.

3 Dec 2013

Todays Intra-day analysis of 1790 was surpassed by only 2.15 pts.  The angle drawn this morning proved to be a good support.  I have added another angle that I did not see till after, this crosses the other angle line and a bounce in price appear to have confirmed it.  On a 5min scale we can see an EW 3 wave pattern moving up from the lows, so we still do not know if this bounce is corrective or impulsive in manner.  All I can say is that the 60min stochastics is at the oversold level, and should elevate out of the oversold range to have a chance to run up.  Some can say we have made a 5 wave move down, but counting in a minute scale is not reliable.  For now, our indicators say that we are on a short-term downtrend.

Main-Trend: Down(Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: Down

3 Dec INTRA

We might see support here near 1790 SPX with a possible EW 5 wave pattern down.  Risk would be to the downside and we should look for a 3 wave rally up if this is the case.

2 Dec 2013

For the most part of the day prices for the SPX have been following our angle line before the late afternoon breakdown.  These lines play a big part in prices regardless what fundamentalists say.  We have made a low near the 75 ma in the 60min chart and have bounce.  The intra-day charts are still pointing down so we must give some allowance for more downside bias.  The EW count looks good but nothing is for certain.  Therefore we will just wait to see if this downtrend resumes into a larger move.  The next level to watch is the 1780 where the 200ma for the 60min chart is currently positioned.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

27 Nov 2013

Today was a light trading day and prices showed an interest in pushing higher today.  The pattern cannot be read clearly enough to give any EW potential counts.  Therefore we will just rely on our indicator.  Yesterday I wrote that the wedge yesterday was either a 5ht wave or a B wave followed by a impulsive drop before the close.  Today we did not make lower lows, so potentially the B wave has the edge here and we might see higher highs in the next few days.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

We had a change in direction on our short-term trend, but we are still in overbought range.  Therefore the risk is still to the upside.

Prices are following our angles. This blue dotted line is my 1x1 angle.

26 Nov 2013

I was contemplating today if the move today will resolve in telling us whether its a higher high for a 5th wave or a B wave.  We got the higher high in the SPX but we got a wedge in the process as well.  So this outcome does not tell us if the impulsive wave down is a 1st wave of some sort or a C wave of a still corrective pattern.

But our aim yesterday was to look for a higher high as early as todays session to complete the move, and that's just what it did. So in that sense we accomplished our goal.  We had a clear negative divergence in the Daily chart last Friday, and we now have that in the intra-day charts as well.

We need to be vigilant and look for a continued lower lows for the 60min chart with our short-term indicator following suit.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

25 Nov 2013

We have touched the upper angle line that was mentioned last week, but patterns still suggest todays move is corrective and that we could see another push to finish off a short term top.  We manage to rest on the 20ma of the 60min chart today.  So let us see where we stand by tomorrow session.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

22 Nov 2013

We are on our target for the upper angle marked by the green dotted line and a blue arrow.  This would be suggestive of where price could encounter some resistance.  W have a double divergence on our intra-day MACD's and we are currently forming a third divergence.  Our daily Stochastics has also made a negative divergence and we should be on a lookout for topping prices.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

21 Nov 2013

Markets are heading higher.  Yesterdays low was the support we were speculating on with 2 angles and 1 ma holding price to time.  We are currently on an intra-day overbought levels, and could continue from todays close.  Our Short-Term signal is still on a DOWN position but my guess is it will turn up by tomorrow morning.

If we continue higher by the start of the market, then start looking for a topping range.  We should look at the angles above marked by a dotted green line.

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

As expected large swings like today have proven to be hard for the Main-Trend to follow, therefore the short-term will be use for now.

20 Nov 2013

Our objective for the SPX has been met which supported today at the 75ma and our converging angles (Time and Price?).  This label of wave 4 is currently favoured, but I am still in the idea that the ABC (PINK) is still possible and would give us an expanding pattern of sorts.  If that is the case then the next probable low could come in the 1760 range. So we should keep an eye on this level.

Our 60min stochastic is in the down position but have already made a positive divergence, so a finished move is not out of the question and a potential move higher for a 5th wave and higher highs could start as early as tomorrow.  For now our indicators tell us we are in a down-trend

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

It is the first time these two indicators have agreed with each other in a while so we should keep an eye for momentum to be on the downside.

19 Nov 2013

Markets still in a corrective trend.  We are not sure if we have finished our downward trend or a continuation still has to ensue for tomorrow.  My analysis tells me we should still see lower prices.  the lower angle on our 60min chart is converging with our 75ma (Blue Arrow), and I believe this will be a good support.  It is also nearing my 1x1 line (Dark blue dotted line).

If in the case there is an acceleration down then we must keep our shorts for a while longer till we see a turn in the short-term trend currently sporting a downward trend or the intra day indicator shows an up push out of oversold.

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed and still overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

18 Nov 2013

Higher highs in the SPX was achieved today with the expectations that it would hit near our upper angle above 1800.  The question now is if the downward move late this afternoon is a corrective or a start of a new trend.  We will label the as a 4th wave for now until we are certain the trend has indeed changed.  Todays low also touched one of our lower angles before a bounce occurred, only supposing it briefly. 

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed but still overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

15 Nov 2013

As prices continue higher, the less likely it is that we are seeing an ABC pattern forming for a B wave.  Our angles continue to be a magnet for prices and it seems we are looking for higher highs to establish the next resistance just above 1800 level on the SPX.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Confirmed)
Short-Term: UP

The discrepancies to the main-trend lies with volatility and even when confirmed it is still in overbought territory.  This is typical behaviour of price volatility vs. indicator.  The only resolution to this is a neg. divergence or an exit out of overbought range.

 

 

 

 

Another count which I prefer as a major count can be seen below... and although a favoured count over other EW counts, we should always follow our trend indicator.

 

 



14 Nov 2013

Prices chugged higher today at our apex of the two angles that have been the controlling factor the SPX.  Todays pivot could be some top of some sort, and the reason we say this is that we could be seeing a wedging pattern since the lows made on the 8th of Nov and a bigger wedge forming since the high of September and low in October as evidence in our 60min chart below.  Could we be witnessing a ending pattern here soon?

Main-Trend: DOWN (unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Volatility has not been kind to our main trend do to the fast moving prices.  This is why we have the short-term trend that is more reliable but ever changing.  For now we are following the shorter term trend and that is showing a divergence at the moment.  The weekly, daily, and 60min charts are all touching its upper BB line.  So we should at least expect a pull back if todays top turns out to be a 3rd wave shown below on the 15min chart.

60Min:

15Min:

13 Nov 2013

We have our higher high today on the SPX.  The patterns seem to suggest the mentioned ABC in 3wave zigzag formation.  The daily stochastics has also made a negative divergence with price.  So we should watch for a reversal.  If this is a C wave pattern down then it will be an impulsive one and most likely in 3 wave format as well.

Main-Trend: DOWN(Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP (Neg. Div.)

Remember that we should always wait for any of our indicators to confirm.  So if you are going short a daily or intra-day trend should be in the down-trending position.

12 Nov 2013

Seems the corrective move was not over and yesterdays triangulated pattern had fooled me into thinking it was a 4th or B wave of some sort.  Today, prices moved below another trend line and seems to be following that trend.  Both yesterdays and todays trend line resistance are approaching an apex so we should watch for this. 

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

11 Nov 2013

There seems to be a triangular pattern showing up on the intraday charts of the SPX and in EW that would either be considered a 4th or a B wave.  This means prices will go higher.  Prices seems to be trying to break the upper trend line just above it.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

8 Nov 2013

The fake-out yesterday took the bulls out early morning, then took out the bears this morning as markets rose early morning.  "Taper" fear did nothing to scare markets.  The analysis yesterday told us that a short term bottom was in but cautioned that our trend was still down trending.  Todays move topped out at the end of the day right near the angle that has been significant resistance level.

Although we have significantly seen a impulsive manner, we should remember that we are still in a down phase short-term.  Volatility will always skew our Main-trend as shown yesterday where it had turned down but was not confirmed.  By the end of the day today our Main-Trend had returned back to "UP".

Our EW pattern tells us that we have an impulsive move and that we have a 5 wave structure.  So we should look for a confirmation of our Short-Term trend to turn "UP" next week.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

Possible 5min EW count:

7 Nov 2013

the SPX made a B-line for the downside today, just when everything was looking up before the market opened.  I'm not sure if we are done with the move to the downside, but it seems we have made a 5 wave move down with a wedging pattern in the intra-day charts.  Let us see if we get a corrective move tomorrow or an impulsive one.  For now the count made on yesterdays 5min chart looks pretty good calling for a C wave move down.  Question will be if this is an ABC for Awave or some sort of ABC for a 2nd or 4th wave.  The daily stochastics still has a long way down and we would want to see it curl up to have a potential of changing the trend.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

 

Resting on support of the up-trend.

 



6 Nov 2013

The SPX intra rally this morning was higher than what I had expected, but nevertheless it has clarified a bit more of the pattern.  I would not use EW alone as an analysis but its good practice to help with probability, such as yesterdays C wave rally that was expected today.  By the end of the day, we just needed to alter some of the counts.  Overall though I feel we are still corrective and that a "downward" correction still exist.  Our main-trend still tells us that we are in an upward direction, so there is no confirmation long-term or short that a trend has changed.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

5 Nov 2013

The sentiment on my part seem to be that we are still in a corrective move.  The question is, if this correction is a uptrend corrective counter move or if this correction is a corrective move from a downtrend starting from its Oct highs.  If we can isolate the corrective nature of the move then  we could possibly set-up for the stronger moving direction.  There seems to be no urgent move to the downside causing me to think that this is just a levelling off till it moves higher, but we have to keep an open mind. Therefore I have included a possible BEARISH SCENARIO at the bottom of this post (2nd chart).

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

BEARISH SCENARIO (bottom):

BULLISH SCENARIO (bottom):