6 Dec 2013

Todays Jobs number pushed prices higher in the US markets.  Prices for the SPX has now come back up above the previous up trending angle.  We should watch for an intra-day pull back next week due to the fact that we are in a downward trending momentum.  If our short-term trend turns up next week, that is when we could go long on the positions.  A bearish note could have us count this up trend as an ABC up pattern.  So we do need that short term trend to confirm the move up.  We could also be setting up for a head and shoulder pattern so the push up today by way of the jobs number could just be a "Bull Trap".

Main-Trend: DOWN (Overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

The chart above shows what would happen if our H&S pattern were to unfold and what EW pattern might occur.  Now this is just a possible scenario since we are trending down still, so watch for it.We would however see a bullish move if we drop down in 3 wave pattern next week as the intra-day signals might suggest being on a downtrend.  So what to do here? with all these options?  I always go by my indicator first, and it never lies.  It can however be late, but never lies.  That being said, trend is down so surprise expectations is to the downside.