4 Jun 2013

The 60min. SPX chart with its 20ma proved to be the strong resistance today. Price failed to push through it.  Tuesdays win streak was also broken today and we have now closed under the 200ma in the 60min chart.  This will have to be watched carefully to see if there is any significance to the 200ma.

There is importance for an acceleration down if the bears are looking for a signal that this move is in their favour.  We would need for the up trending blue dotted line from the late April bottom to be broken. This is also the reason why we are trading in such a small trading range.  Some EW practitioner in the bearish camps are counting a wave structure as (1-2 1-2 1-2) down, and we can only count so many of those until it becomes ridiculously wrong. 

I believe EW is best counted with the main trending sentiment.  Meaning that since 2009 the trend has been clearly up and through that time until now the bears have been counting an end to the pattern and has brought major disappointment and embarrassment to themselves.  I believe we have to count it based on a bullish trend until it becomes apparent that it has turned.  So like you see at the chart below, the only count is the ABC for 4th until it is otherwise proven to me that the trend is really bearish.

Our indicators still working perfectly since its call for a turn down on 22nd unconfirmed (24th of may confirmed).  Following this has a much better chance of success as compared to the rest of the other analysis.  Simple is sometimes better...

Mid-Term: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

Note: The best trades is when both are in sync with each other, just like the above sentiments.