15 Dec 2014 - Santa Rally Got Tired?

It's too early to call a victory for the bears as the overall markets are bullish (See right hand side Market Sentiment).  It is hard though to look at our indicator below with a straight face and say this is still bullish.  The indicators especially the ST is the bread and butter, and at the moment its still in a down-trend.  Indicators are in SYNC and oversold which makes it even more dangerous.  Prices today closed below the 50 and the 75 day MA, this is also bearish.  Last time this happened?  The Oct. plunge.

If the top has been made, an EW count in Blue would be the best case scenario that would give us a 5 wave decline before a 2nd chance rally.  We can confirm this once we reach this with the indicators if we reach this point.

I failed to point out that todays low is also the 38.2% retracement if we are to assume that the top made early Dec. is "THE" top.  This would also push the 50% level near the 1950 level which has the 200 Day MA approaching.  Time allows all of these to converge and sometimes we should be aware of these things to give us the advantage.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN