1 Jul 2015 - Holding Strong?

The 200 day ma, regardless if prices have touched or not has been a factor the last few days.  The fact that prices are hovering right above it, is an indication that the market is aware of this and it could be our clue to a switch on (sell it) switch off (buy it).  The indicators when at OS usually shows a habit of accelerating and at this point prices have just stayed stagnant or have rebounded.  Perhaps there is still a chance for the acceleration since the SPX is still in OS territory.  But if the signal does exit the OS then the risk is higher for a rally for the markets. 

We need to assess these sentiments day by day due to the volatile nature we are in.  Therefore I would like to see the intra-day chart push below the mid-line tomorrow to favour a sell side, with an OS entry to carry momentum.  If the signal does push higher into OB..  We would need to take our gains from previous days and wait for the signal to turn bearish once more. 

I remain bearish due to our Warning to the right of this blog and because of our MT and ST being in a down position. 

One thing to note is that the monthly chart has now also crossed out of OB.  this is significant in that the last time it was below the OB range was almost 4 years ago during the 2011 drop.  On a longer term basis, this is months.  Playing the long side is now a counter trend move.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN