9 Jul 2015 - Contemplation

Sorry for the late post.. Been busy all day.  I figure we are in a holding pattern and ready to break.  A few days ago before we broke the 200 Day MA.  I drew a 4th wave triangular pattern.  I figured that with the ES pushing up overnight and then down before cash market opened that it was the end of the c-wave 4th.  I have revisited this option and am contemplating to label the break of the 200 Day MA as the 3rd wave.

This brings us currently to the triangular sideways pattern known as the 4th.  In labelling this as 4th, I am assuming a lower low to come but will be quickly retraced again because this would finish of a 5th wave that will complete a 1st wave decline.

Also I am now expecting a wedging pattern to form to complete this wave.  However, the fall from the ATH to mid-June is still not convincing me that it was a 5 wave decline.  This does not matter as we are more in favour of what the signal is telling us over EW.  If it is a complete 5 wave then the scenario above is what I am choosing (See Chart Below For Labelling).

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: IF ALL THESE COUNTS ARE TRUE AND THE 1ST WAVE IS DONE.  THE 2ND WAVE HAS THE ABILITY TO RETRACE ALMOST TO THE ALL TIME HIGH.  But the retracement should not exceed the ATH or the count is invalid.