9 Mar 2016 - Hard Count

It's hard to say if the top is in or not.  From the looks of it in the intra-charts, you can see price swaying up and down overlapping each other characteristics of a corrective pattern, but it also can be a sub count of 1s and 2s.

The best scenario I can see happening here based on EW and signals would be for price to continue lower into the 1970 area and then bounce and try for the 200 day MA.  Yes, I'm still inclined to see prices through to the 2020 area.  With the OB situation, the risk still favours more upside, and until the signal removes itself from that range, I cannot discount the higher price option.  With the signal trending down, I can also see a push up as a setup for a negative divergence on the daily chart.  Watch for this as it might just signal the start of the CIT.  If prices continue lower breaking 1970 then I would start looking for lower lows.  If one is to look at the Fib. retracement (blue) from yesterdays chart, it would show that price has met its a=c (from 1890 lows) target which coincides with the larger (a=c blue).  This is the bearish view that all is done and moving lower impulsively, but we have yet to see a confirmation.

I would also like to add a count of a-b-c-d-e (red) that could form to be a diagonal and allowing us to reach the 200 day MA.  But before this happens, I would like to see d-wave form to the downside perhaps to 1940-1930 SPX.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

8 Mar 2016 - Proved Weaker

The SPX is proving very weak.  It is in danger of pushing lower negating my expectations for a 200 day MA target.  If this is so, then it would fool a lot of people who were looking for the 200 day MA as a selling point.  The question is, how much are longs willing to risk for that target if it does not get hit.  I think the best recourse here is to reduce exposure even if you have a "GUT FEELING" that price will still meet its intended target.  I for one am not smarter than the market.  Since the intra-charts are in bearish territory, I will have to be cautious of any upside, and by all means we are still capable of moving higher since we are still in OB range.

Remember that we are not about the absolute lows or absolute tops..  The signal for the ST that turned up in mid-Feb. was not an absolute low, but it still pulled out decent gains if you were to trade to the long side or just covered your short and waited the rally out.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

Mar 7 2015 - Final Stretch

Today's end of day dump and pump seems to be the start of the last leg up.  This is the only explanation the impulsive moves that have been occurring today.  EW can explain this with b-wave move up from the morning lows then down for a c-wave move to end the corrective sub-wave move. With the equally impulsive move higher we could only speculate that this is the move that will take prices to near the 200 day MA.  This should not be considered an absolute, but a higher probability that sync's with our signals. Without the intra-charts going into bearish or OS, we cannot say for certain that a change in trend has occurred.  I always us this method to lessen the chance of a fake out when things seems to be turning or weakening in the current trend.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

4 Mar 2016 - Are We At A Precipice?

The daily SPX chart has formed a doji which can be seen as a reversal.  This again cannot be taken as certain all by itself.  Price is now merely a few pts. away from touching the 200 day moving average, therefore I would not want to speculate that we are now at a CIT.  While the weekly chart is bearish, we are still trending UP.  This needs to turn down for a longer trend to take hold.  With daily signals, we can only expect them to last a few days to a week.  It would be more reassuring to know that at least a longer term signal is supporting our convictions for a prolonged down trend.

Regardless, a reaction in price should happen sooner than later, or the Bears will be looking at a lost opportunity straight in the eye, and the Bulls will once again control momentum. Could it be that we are finished with a sub-wave 4th and this rise will take us to new ATH for a 5th?  It is possible, and it can happen, but we must also side on trend and sentiment.  Make no mistake that we are still in a Bearish market.

The move in the SPX in recent weeks has fulfilled my expectations, and we are now at that decision point where markets must decide whether to go all-in for the upside or err on caution and turn right back down.  Unfortunately, news and reports are not accurate or reliable to tell the truth about the condition of the market(s).

SEN: Bearish:
ST: UP
PA: NA

3 Mar 2016 - Bears Huffed And Puffed But Couldn't Blow The House Down..

The SPX and ES tried twice today to enter Bear territory, but was bid up.  It looks like the 2000 target will get tagged.  Will it stop there?  We will have to see of any confirmation for a downward reversal signal when price arrives or whether this is a full on Bull run and we just didn't see it coming.  If it is, there is no need to worry because we are not after absolute tops and bottoms.  We need to always play the highest probability outcome as much as some who disagree with the method.  It is what has kept this blog consistent in showing trend.

The EW count that I have, does not show this move up as some have been calling it, a fourth wave.  At best, this could be a sub-wave 2 or a B wave.  The next count for these two options are either a sub-wave 3 or a C-wave.  Both of which are expected to be impulsive (simply put).

We just need to see this rise play out and trade it to the downside once we get a confirmation through our ST and PA.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

Note:  I have various levels that I am watching and I cannot rule out 2020 as I said in yesterdays blog.

2 Mar 2016 - 20 / 20 Vision

Is it a clear view for the SPX that the next target is 2020?  From where price sits, there are no other moving average to stop it on its tracks.  The only one with the only chance is the 61.8% ret. at 2000.  So now all we are really talking about is a difference of 20 SPX pts.  Seems like 20 is the number that has been on notice.. 2000, 2020.. etc..   Maybe we might get a 20% correction here then? LOL.

The intra-chart has now formed a small neg. divergence, but as we know divergence is not a certainty that a trend would happen in and of itself.  The risk of more upside potential is still there, but the risk has abated from when prices were at or close to the previous lows.  While I believe that we are nearing a top or resistance, it is prudent to wait until we get confirmation.

Our ST has again been a very good marker, and should serve us to follow it.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

1 Mar 2016 - Meeting Up With 75

The SPX has now moved up to meet with the 75 day MA.  Although not many do look at the 75 MA as significant, it can tell you how strong price is by how long it can stay above or below this MA, and often times price can magnet around this moving average.  So are we done moving up?  My answer would be "I don't think so" based on the fact that we are still OB, and up trending.

The futures market initiated a bullish signal this morning at 3:30am intra-day.  It is hard to see and act on this when the move comes overnight.  This is why I reiterate always trading with the trend and confirmed signals.  There is the H&S pattern to watch for and is in line with the previous top made in Sept 2015.  If this trend angle is of importance or dominance then price should find a strong resistance here or the next move is towards the 2020 level where the 200 day MA is currently parked.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP

I am looking at a weak case if prices fails to push above 2000 SPX, but a strong case if it does and should reach the 200 day MA.