4 Mar 2016 - Are We At A Precipice?

The daily SPX chart has formed a doji which can be seen as a reversal.  This again cannot be taken as certain all by itself.  Price is now merely a few pts. away from touching the 200 day moving average, therefore I would not want to speculate that we are now at a CIT.  While the weekly chart is bearish, we are still trending UP.  This needs to turn down for a longer trend to take hold.  With daily signals, we can only expect them to last a few days to a week.  It would be more reassuring to know that at least a longer term signal is supporting our convictions for a prolonged down trend.

Regardless, a reaction in price should happen sooner than later, or the Bears will be looking at a lost opportunity straight in the eye, and the Bulls will once again control momentum. Could it be that we are finished with a sub-wave 4th and this rise will take us to new ATH for a 5th?  It is possible, and it can happen, but we must also side on trend and sentiment.  Make no mistake that we are still in a Bearish market.

The move in the SPX in recent weeks has fulfilled my expectations, and we are now at that decision point where markets must decide whether to go all-in for the upside or err on caution and turn right back down.  Unfortunately, news and reports are not accurate or reliable to tell the truth about the condition of the market(s).

SEN: Bearish:
ST: UP
PA: NA