9 Mar 2016 - Hard Count

It's hard to say if the top is in or not.  From the looks of it in the intra-charts, you can see price swaying up and down overlapping each other characteristics of a corrective pattern, but it also can be a sub count of 1s and 2s.

The best scenario I can see happening here based on EW and signals would be for price to continue lower into the 1970 area and then bounce and try for the 200 day MA.  Yes, I'm still inclined to see prices through to the 2020 area.  With the OB situation, the risk still favours more upside, and until the signal removes itself from that range, I cannot discount the higher price option.  With the signal trending down, I can also see a push up as a setup for a negative divergence on the daily chart.  Watch for this as it might just signal the start of the CIT.  If prices continue lower breaking 1970 then I would start looking for lower lows.  If one is to look at the Fib. retracement (blue) from yesterdays chart, it would show that price has met its a=c (from 1890 lows) target which coincides with the larger (a=c blue).  This is the bearish view that all is done and moving lower impulsively, but we have yet to see a confirmation.

I would also like to add a count of a-b-c-d-e (red) that could form to be a diagonal and allowing us to reach the 200 day MA.  But before this happens, I would like to see d-wave form to the downside perhaps to 1940-1930 SPX.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP