11 Mar 2015 - Price Pattern

Todays price clustering is an indication of a corrective pattern, and suggest a continuation of the trend to the downside.  Depending on the count, we might still need a move up for a corrective rally for a Minute sub-wave.  As a swing trader I would just hold my position unless we were to exit the OS range in the intra-day level or to exit on the ST CIT.

There is a minor positive divergence in the intra-day charts, but I would not sweat this since our intention is to exit at OS exit of the indicators.  This just reminds us that there is a possible CIT in the intra-da level.  Do remember however that divergences can have a prolonged affect.  So divergence by itself is not a good gauge of exit or entry triggers.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

 Yesterdays analysis concluded that we should hold shorts as long as we are in OS territory.  Most cases there would be an accelerative move and even though we do not have that today, holding the position is still a good idea.  This is not because we are in Fear Of Missing Out.  This is just a tactical move which plays the odds of a profitable trade.  Perhaps the acceleration down will resume tomorrow, therefore it would be unwise to exit when a gift is starring you right in the face.  These setups is something most people do not notice, but I am here to show you the potential of such setups.

I believe these setups are better than forecasts due to the nature of a higher probability CIT.  Forecasts can tell you when price turns, but often times it does not tell how far it will move or when it will end.  This setup however tells us when such a thing can occur.  We are not picking an absolute top or bottom.  That would be foolish, as the luck of it will not be on your side and will fail you more times than if you get it precisely.  Notice out ST turned down at 2105.  This is not the top but we are 60pts down currently from that signal. 

Since the ST triggered a downside sell signal, there have been 2 accelerative move.  On an intra-day level there would have been 2 trades made, but on an ST level only 1 trade would have been made with a hold on that same position.  This is why its important to stay with the timeframe that you are comfortable with rather than jumping from one to the other.

Note that if you were to take away all the above illustrations and kept the ST signals by themselves.  You would have had only 2 losing trades and the rest would have been profitable.