31 Mar 2015 - Looking Impulsive So Far

For today's session, I was looking for an impulsive move lower.  The morning started with the indicator trying to stay in the OB range even with the move lower.  This is a dangerous spot to be in if you are short unless the signal exits the OB range (Mentioned: HERE).  Following the intra-day chart would finally show the setup we were looking for, and the impulsive move I mentioned yesterday was also materializing.

The end of day pattern and signals though are more mixed than clear.  Isn't it this way all the time? LOL.  I was hoping to actually get more distance in price action and more impulsive in momentum, so we will just work with what we have today.

The EW pattern yesterday showed a 3-wave pattern that we can consider corrective.  A higher move breaking the high would allow it to complete a 5-wave pattern that did not materialize.  This is good for the Bears.  However with today's move, we also get another 3-wave pattern down which can be considered corrective or unfinished.  The options we have here now is that since we have a corrective pattern up and down, I can consider it a 3-wave up for A-wave and a 3-wave down for B-wave.  So if this is correct then we should get an impulsive move up for a C-wave.  And since we overlapped our low today with the high made on the 26th, we cannot call this current low a 4th wave.  The option for more downside would have us complete the current 3-wave into a 5 wave pattern, possibly for another sub-wave [i]lower.  The bulk of the day price have made a triangulated pattern only seen on B waves or 4th waves.  This is clearly not a 4th wave down.. Therefore the risk of the EW analysis is that this move lower is corrective and we should see a C-wave (impulsive move up).

Our ST has not changed direction as well with the move we had today in the SPX.  Since today is the last day of the month, it is a good idea to look at the trend in a monthly chart to see if we can see a long-term picture going into April.  It is evident we are in a down-trend on this time frame, but also still OB.  The clue will come in tomorrow to see if the signal pushes lower..  If prices push lower this month we will also see the monthly try to push out of the OB.  This should confirm whats in store on a monthly basis or at least by the end of next month.

-EW analysis risk for more upside. (These counts can be wrong so additional confirmation needed)
-ST still in the up trending direction.

We should look for a continued move lower and into OS territory by the intra-day signals.  This would show a willingness of markets to start falling apart.  A move back above tomorrow would show the Bulls in control.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: NA