9 Mar 2015 - Acceleration Warning?

Last Friday was the anniversary of the Mar 6, 2009 low.  So it would be fitting to keep an eye for the market at this juncture.  This morning I tweeted that the intra-day signals are weak and that there needs to be attention given on any cross down by the signals to confirm a downtrend.  This did not happen because the 60min signals were on a move up all day.  This move up though did not force the ST to move or react, meaning that the momentum is still clearly to the downside.  The one thing that I am noticing now is that the ST can easily go into acceleration or OS range as early as tomorrow if the intra-day turns down.. Again confirming the CIT intra-day and in SYNC with the ST.  No guarantees, but something to be watchful for since we are at the border of a sell signal.

It is possible that any move lower would have us try and test the 2000 level where the 200 day MA is, but we would still need to break other supports to get here.  Could we hit the 5th sub-wave tomorrow and stair step lower?  It is possible.. This type of move could hide the impulsive moving nature (no big moves down, but small drops or even small gaps).  My suggestion is, do not short until you at least see the 60min signals cross down tomorrow or hold your short position until the ST turns upwards before you cover.

MT: UP (If prices are maintained at this level for SPX or lower the MT will surely signal a CIT)
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

It is tempting to signal an acceleration down, but I would be speculating if I did not wait for it to go into OS range. Therefore I would be doing injustice to my indicators.  Sometimes its better to be late than never.

Note: Our MT has not given us good direction, but this is to be expected due to volatility.  The eventuality of it clearing up and giving us a trend will appear.  We just have to ride it and follow the flow of things.  This is why as traders or investors you need to know what time-frame is best fit with your style.  Maybe, the ST works better, but you will be trading at a higher frequency of course.

Based on the chart above:

-ST signals occurred 13 times since Dec 2014.
-MT however only occurred 4 times before this writing.