10 Mar 2016 - Reversal In Which Direction?

Today's move lower almost had us see an ST change to the downside, but prices didn't stick to the lows.  Instead SPX rallied impulsively into the close, ending in positive territory.  The daily low did pierce the 75 day MA and bounced to gain back the support above.

With the recent overlapping and corrective pattern, I would like to see at least a 3 wave decline into the 1958 region.  So far we saw an impulsive move when markets opened that we could label as wave-a into 1970 lows (not shown), and a rally perhaps into wave-b (might not be done).  With that said, a move lower from todays end of day rally high could put us in an a=c sub-wave into the 1958 low I discussed above.  This would also move our diagonal support angle higher.

Remember that the risk is still to the upside, but momentum is getting weaker.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: NA