11 Mar 2016 - Level Hit.. Time To Pay Attention.

The SPX has now reached my intended target of 2020 and has exceeded it to close above the 200 day MA for the first time since the close of Dec 2015.  Yes this is quite a bullish feel, and it may just turn out that way.  But we are now at a decision point for the bears to see if they would even challenge and turn it around on the bulls.  This level is my turn-a-round point, and a negative divergence forming today, it adds to the cautious view that the bullish feel is potentially ending.

For those Bears out there, the line to beat is now the Feb. lows, which needs to break for a confident bear raid.  If this is not broken then a possible push to ATH is possible.  I would look to take profits now and latest if the ST signal turns south.  The EWI community is counting this as a sub-wave (ii).  This has them looking for a acceleration down and expecting a break of the Feb. lows that I mentioned above.  If this low does not break then the high that is currently forming would be counted as a first wave of sorts and this implies that the move up will be for the ATH.

The steps I am looking for is for the ST to turn DOWN, then enter OS to confirm that the bears have taken control and LL to come.  Without the OS conditions with market levels we are currently in, there wouldn't be enough momentum or strength to push prices for a run-a-way move to the downside.  This is the most important note to take.

I am bearish based on my "Sentiment" indicator, so this is my line in the sand and I'm on edge.
While there are some calling for the 2035 - 2040, it would be foolish to wait to lock in gains with a few pts. separating the target to current level.  If you are long and bullish the market, this would be a good idea to sit on the sideline and wait to see what happens with the next formation before re-entering.  This is just my thought process, not an advice / recommendation.

SEN: Bearish
ST: UP
PA: UP