“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Friday, 26 August 2016

26 Aug 2016 - EOD, EOW

Weekly bearish candle and a daily bearish engulfing candle.  The ST down indicator was at it again..  The uptrend line support now holds the daily and weekly bar in place, and will need to push below the 2160 - 2159 level.  Sandy Jadeja forecasted to watch for a volatile Aug 26 - 30.  So far, right on queue.  If the mentioned level breaks the next level to watch is the 2123 level (75 Day MA).  Of course what would a market be if everything is so easily seen and simple to analyze.  Therefore, one must be aware of the signals entering into OS territory which raise the risk of acceleration to the downside.  We do not need to be reminded that J-Hole still in effect this weekend, and all it takes is the wrong statement to push prices up or down violently.

Since we are entering a "Volatile" time, I should mention again that most if not all signals become laggards, when on a regular day it is one step behind would now become 3 or 4 steps behind the moving price.  Eventually it will catch up, but until then we should put our long-term and Sentiment signals in the back burner and concentrate on the shorter duration.  With all the talk of a major CIT occurring between now and Sept 9, we should start looking at how else to protect whatever profits has been made to date.  The 60min chart below should serve as an example of where price is sitting currently.  This may not be evident at first glance, but price is sitting on the bold dotted green (downtrending) line of the intra-chart and the previously mentioned Daily (uptrending) line (Red Dashed).

Next week will also be important in that the monthly will also close and print its bar, and can produce a CIT if price does not rally back to a bullish form.  Everything is coming together...  Question is, are you looking at the right signals?

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA



Note: If markets shows itself as being very bearish, I would likely target a 1600 SPX as a nice place to rest the bears.

Thursday, 25 August 2016

25 Aug 2016 - EOD

Signals still suggest downtrend.  A post last night on Twitter of the recent move down as a possible ABC has been nulled.  With the new LL in the intra-day, the pattern has stretched.  The OS condition increases the markets chance for a quick and volatile move in either direction so be on your toes.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA (Reset indicator will be downside bias)




Wednesday, 24 August 2016

24 Aug 2016 - EOD

The ST turned down last night on the ES and I figured there was a good chance the SPX would follow in the open, which it has.  We should still be alert for any rally as we remain in this corrective (Sideways) phase.  Any breakdown in a longer term trend would signal that the CIT has been created.  This has not happened yet.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA


Tuesday, 23 August 2016

23 Aug 2016 - EOD

Divergence still abound, and corrective traits possibly to continue into the end of the week.  The signal trumped the diamond pattern I suggested could be forming yesterday.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA


Monday, 22 August 2016

22 Aug 2016 - EOD

Diamond pattern is presenting itself in a minute time frame, therefore we cannot really know how effective this pattern is at this point in time.

DEFINITION of 'Diamond Top Formation'

A technical analysis reversal pattern that is used to signal the end of an uptrend. This relatively uncommon pattern is found by identifying a period in which the price trend of an asset starts to widen and then starts to narrow. This pattern is called a diamond because of the shape it creates on a chart.

The signals for both ST and R is in an upward bias, so I am inclined to stay bullish until we get confirmation to the downside.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: UP




Friday, 19 August 2016

19 Aug 2016 - EOD, EOW

Weekly close for the SPX could be considered a engulfing bearish candle, but I'm not so sure if we have seen the ATH put in place.  Since the time cycles have not arrived, I would urge an awareness to a possible HH.  If everyone is looking for 2200 as the target, the market won't give it up so easily and may even fail.  That said, signals are still OB and up trending therefore I will have to be biased to the upside until such event compelling enough to call for a CIT.  A higher high in SPX will not nullify the negative divergence presently in place, and can only induce weakness so keep this also in mind.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA


Thursday, 18 August 2016

18 Aug 2016 - EOD

While the ST still points down, the rally in price today has pushed the intra-day signals to OB territory.  Both signals here are not in SYNC but has potential to change the ST outcome tomorrow.  If we are to end the week in an ideal situation, my take would be that the intra-day continues to push prices to new ATH again, while reversing the day to produce a reversal bar and perhaps a weekly reversal bar that would end the weekly run.

All this is speculative of course, but one importance is the Monthly bar that is coming to a close in a few weeks.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: UP
R: NA