Nothing has changed, but our new high. Seems the breakout to the upside is heeded with caution. Usually a break out would have some good momentum behind it, but not this one. That said, our trends are still up with the Mid-term not confirmed at this time.
SPX flirting with new highs. Don't see why it would go this high and not go for it, as our Short-Term Trend is still in an up trend. OB or OS conditions are a nice way to get into a position, and the past week showed us just how strong these conditions are when it comes to price movements.
Mid-Term: UP (but have not printed)
longs buy with caution here and recommend a small position only due to the fact that the Mid-Term Trend has not printed yet.
Our Mid-Term trend lives to see another week. So far our trend is bearish even as price have climbed to near new highs. Of course the longer the price stays up the more detrimental to the Mid-Term staying in a bearish position. What we have said yesterdays remains true today. A trade to the down side with the trend can only come when our Short-Term trend becomes aligned with the Mid-Term trend.
We are approaching May 3rd my next turn-date target. We do not know if this is a minor or major turn but we should see it in how the trends behave on that day. Also the 3rd of May is on a Friday, making it also important.
So far my EW counts like this with a May target. Its close so there is a need to start watching our indicators very carefully. Hence if your style is swing trading then you should use our Mid-Term trend and use the Short-Term trend to trade when they are in sync. What I mean by this is that, if your Mid-Term is UP, then you only trade the Short-Term trend that is UP. If your Mid-Term trend is DOWN like it is NOW. Then you would let the Short-Term trend rally and trade or enter on the DOWN signal. EASY AS PIE...
SPX 60min stayed overbought for the whole day. Therefore no reversal till end of day when it did push down out of overbought. Best count for this up move looks like a 5wave pattern in EW. Which could only mean higher highs breaking the previous high on the 11th of Apr. Which brings us back to our target of 1600 -1622 range in the SPX.
The Bears are not dead yet. Why? Because the Medium-term trend is still open to the downside. But time is running out for the bears again.
Markets took a pause today and our 60min. chart is still in overbought with 3 peak divergence. This usually calls for a reversal but I would not be sure how big that reversal would be until our Short-Term trend aligns with our Mid-Term trend.
Note: 60min MACD is looking Bearish but it has not crossed down.
The SPX short-term trend changed yesterday and pointed to an upside which has continued today. The 60min Chart shows us that the overbought condition continued from yesterday to the end of day today. None of the Fib. targets held any resistance for prices. So for now we will stick with our indicator to tell us where we are.
Again we should look for the 60min to exit the overbought level and turn down while manipulating the Short-term trend to change its trend.
Note: AAPL afterhours pop and drop.... So much for the apparent good news...
Market rallied today even with CAT reporting a bad outlook. So this is a good example that Fundamentals doesn't work and if they do its just a coincidence. News travels and by the time it gets to you its too late. In fact its too late when the first guy shouts it out to the whole world. But if your a fundamentalist don't mind this blog.
Our 60min chart was in overbought on Fridays close Apr. 19. This oversold continued today pushing us above he 200ma on the 60min chart. It was not even a significant resistance. We are flirting wit a 38-50% Fib. resistance. I would allow for it to hit 1566 to 1575 SPX, but todays high at 1565.55 is quite close to the minimum range. A move down on the 60min Stoch. would alter the Short-Term trend back to the downside
We are going to pretend that April 11 in the SPX is the top and based on our first move from that top, we have a good impulsive pattern, and not the more overlapping type that happened on the SPX during Mid to End of March. So based on our long-term and short-term trends, we can be safe to call a current down-trend.
I am keeping this simple by concentrating on our trend instead of giving different options. Therefore if our trend changes to the upside then we will call it and go with that trend. Often times, people read these financial blogs and try to figure out what it is really we are trying to convey. Of course we would like you to do your own research and compare our findings with yours. We have differing strategies so please elaborate more on how you can use our analysis in your trading.
So far our results this end of week has been:
The chart below is the 60min chart of the SPX, and its showing an overbought Stoch. Therefore a short can be placed once the Stoch. has crossed to the downside, diverged, or has come out of the overbought position. Also check to make sure that both your Mid-term and your Short-term are also on the same down trend. You will notice that most strong moves will happen when both or all three trends are aligned. Use this with your analysis and your cycles or even your EW to better understand which side of the risk your on.
The SPX broke the 1540 support today but stayed just above it for the day. The important thing to take from today is that a lower low is bearish and we would look for a lower high to take place for a corrective rally. Before that rally takes place we have to look at a support that is the 75ma on the Daily chart at 1522 level. This is also the small support resistance cluster made during the month of Feb.
Mid-Term Trend: Down
Short -Term Trend: Down
Therefore a short position would be held until we get an indication of a trend change from our Mid-term trend.
For anyone looking at short opportunity, I noticed that DE, and CAT looks to be at an inflection point and a turn down soon is possible. These two companies are also a bell weather for the economy. DD is need here before a trade is initialized so don't just jump into it head first.
Last hour movement seems to be corrective. Will we see lower lows tomorrow? the critical point here for the SPX is the 1540. If this level is surpassed then we would not call for a 3rd wave up of a 5th..
Indicators tell a thousand words. Our EW counts no matter how good we are was still inferior to our indicators. Day in Day out we have been saying that our indicators have been on a down-trend, and so far that's just that. It is a matter of the readers here choosing a time frame to trade their respective indicators.
The market rallied and relieved the sell-off that happened yesterday. I have not seen any pattern yet to suggest a solid conviction for a downtrend has started. But our Indicators prove to be still bearish. Therefore we will side with the indicators until a clear pattern shows itself.
The move down yesterday looks like a 3 wave pattern but we could probably need to look at a smaller time frame to see how if there is a 5 wave into the move or not. Im not caught up so much on EW as it proves to always change as the market makes its move. Todays move up however looks to be 5 waves. This doesn't bode well for bears.
The chart above could be playing out an ABC for the last new high. This would suggest that the move up now is the final C of this leg if your following the red abc pattern. If we are following the red 12345 pattern then it would be over as the top is concerned. Both patterns are still in play, but try not to get too caught up on the pattern as its just another ever changing analysis. What is certain is our indicators.
Gold has been bed new for everyone today. Can't say no one was not warned who read this blog. The SPX closed with a Daily trend down and our Mid-term review from Friday said we were still on a down trend despite the higher highs explained only by a divergence. What's more important is the daily MACD closing the day with a print closed down. All trends point down, and may not be over. We will let our indicator tell us when the time comes.
Today Gold reached a low of 1403. Right where we expected the target would be. We have broken a few technicals but that is the point of any low or any high. The next level of support if this keeps its trend is 1200 at the monthly 75ma. So is there a good possibility that we would get here?
We reached our target so what's next? Well for starters, as the Bulls reach down in their pockets only to find lint. The sentiments as always has been that we have hit the bottom in Gold. It is possible, but our indicators do not say over until it crosses up. So far, todays indicators has pointed down with divergence (always a good sign for anyone looking for a bottom). But the key here is not to react to quick. Let the indicator play out. So what if your late, so long as you get in at a better risk opportunity.
Our long-term trend has reached oversold and mid-term which we will use as our main trend is diverging with prices, but still down. When our indicator turns up, your trade setup would be to use the daily Stoch. then to enter just when its crossing upwards and to make sure as it rises, that the mid-term trend follows in the same direction. This always never fails.
On an EW pattern basis, we can see a few resemblance of their theory. First of all the movement from Oct 2012 counts as ABC with 3 subwaves each. This would be consistent with the 3 wave A formed in Sept 2011 to Jan 2012 and the 3 wave B made from Jan 2012 to Oct 2012. We are also in an A = C here at the 1400 level. We should wait for indicators to turn up before we call a bottom even if we are most confident.
GOOD NEWS!!!.. We stayed open on our Mid-Term trend indicator. Therefore the downtrend is still in good shape. You might ask why my trend is down while prices keeps moving higher. This is called divergence and just because it happens does not mean you should freak out and say indicators are wrong. The Bears live for another week and next week looks promising for the Bears. Like I said in my previous posts, I still am looking for higher prices, but Im only watching it now as I'm positioned for a bear run already. So even if that Higher High doesn't happen (Which it has so far), I am already positioned for when the trend does shift to the downside.
Platy has a turn date of 18-20 of April and my closest date so far falls between them at 19th of April.
The chart below shows 2 different scenarios. One is of an ABC pattern to new highs. The other a 12345 ending top for a final C wave.
I believe we go higher tomorrow but I believe that we are close to a high. Short position would be played well if the weekly ends tomorrow on an open trend down. I believe the market is about to turn south. A few days won't matter at this point.
Here is another pattern worth noting. This pattern allows us to move higher for an April 15-19 turn date if the weekly Stoch. crosses up tomorrow.
Just when I added a BitCoin account to my blog, the currency tanks like a rock. But I guess I can't say I was surprised. This currency has been speculative at best.
The market today pushed up just the way our indicators overbought signal told us. Yesterday the 60min Stoch. was on overbought with a Daily main trend on an up position. This meant that trend was up and that on an hourly basis our momentum was pushing higher until we turned down on a 60min chart and out of overbought. As you can see since yesterdays entrance above overbought we have been shooting higher. If we start to cross downward, we would then wait for the 60min to reset and see if the Daily follows. If the Daily still shows an upward trend then we would enter with a 60min crossing up. As it stands though this trend is still Upwards.. Frustrating the Bears in the process.
THROWIN IT OUT THERE:
as a possible count.. for those EW crazies.
The markets seems to like our first choice of a higher price and as it stands we are looking at the minimum that has been met by a 5th wave up. Whether this is the 1st of a 5th is to be determined but that would mean extending the 5th wave longer than the 1st. Our target is the 1580 to 1600 SPX, so we may still see it and won't be surprised.
After the Close:
We had a good reversal at the end of the last hour, but it could just be a process of a 4th wave. But our 60min Stoch. has turned down and technically the Mid-term trend is still down since our Indicator will not print its close till the end of the week. Therefore caution should be taken for long position even if we grind higher. We have a squeezing BB and most of the time it tells that something is about to happen. We also have not seen the SPX all-time high, and if we keep inching up like this the harder it is for bulls to carry that momentum higher even if we break SPX all time high.
The first chart looks to be more of a proportionate pattern. But with any EW pattern, sometimes we cannot see down to the minute movement. So we have to also look at the Bearish case as well. What I do like about the Bearish case is that at the assumption of an ABC corrective move up we can measure 1564 as A=C and sits just right under the last support that was broken on Apr 3.
Our indicators on a daily basis crossed up for an uptrend but our Mid-term and Main trend is still down. Anyone going long should only go long based on the daily capacity until the Mid-term trend turns with the daily trend.
I have been looking for gold going down since Oct 2012. So far everything looks like its on track to where it should eventually land. 1400 is my first look at support, but in order to get there, we need to look at some patterns that might be of help.
This Weekly chart shows what it could be like for Gold as a corrective pattern. If A wave = C wave then we will be within the 200ma range or just a tad below it.
On a Daily chart we can see the possible 5 waves and the waves that is yet to form. What we don't know will be if the 5 waves down will form as Wave A of C or a full complete C wave.
Market Timing Update put out a chart of the SPX 400 MID CAP and it shows a full 5 wave count. Since the SPX 500 is hard to translate this chart could be a clue as to what will happen in the next few days.
There was a very impulsive drop today but it has only produced a 3 wave pattern and since then we have had a fairly good rally to the upside. We have breached a wave 1 violation to make it a 3 wave pattern, but another count could have this in a 1-2 count from yesterdays close but unlikely. Just throwing the possibilities out there that's all.
The support today on the SPX lines up with the A = C rule of EW. As you can see at the bottom chart our forecasting lines were close to dead-on. On a cycle basis, we have a turning point on April 8th brought on by a Astro Analysis of Mars 36 Degrees. Anyone looking at these analysis should expect a reversal, but it will depend on Mondays move as to which direction the impulsive goes.
Our analysis of our indicators still says that mid-term trend is still to the downside no matter what the EW pattern says. Our daily Stoch. indicator is resting on the midline trending downward with the chart sporting a reversal candle. On top of that the tail end of todays bar has pierced the lower BB line which could possibly line up for a move higher.
Therefore the way to trade this would be to follow the daily Stoch. for a cross up and to exit with your short position then. and wait for a cross back down to short again unless your mid-term trend reverses to the upside as well. In which case you would trade to the upside.
A Bearish case would continue to look like this chart posted on Apr. 3rd.
Just to note for those following the Canadian Markets. The TSX proved to be supported on a 200ma Daily Chart. It would give a good indication that there is a high probability of a bounce. With the Daily chart being in oversold all we need to confirm this is if the indicator crosses up to sustain a daily to a weekly rally.
Todays move looked like it was testing the bottom trend line that was broken yesterday and on top of that has created a triangulating pattern that could only be seen in 4th or B waves. Looking from yesterdays high, both counts are possible. If we are looking for a triangle, then we should count it as an ABCDE pattern to end the Triangle and expect a continued down trend.
Mid-Term Indicator (Main), is still down trending therefore we are expecting more momentum to downside. The earliest we can look for a move up would be if the daily Stochastics crosses up.
Nothing today showed any conviction of a trend change, and looking at the 5min level we can see a clear 3 wave down from this morning to about 11am for the SPX. Many times Waves can be counted wrong especially when they are impulsive, just because the are fast and tight some waves could be there but unseen by the timeframe. The next best thing is to follow our indicators as always to show us the way.
Our daily stochastics have not crossed down but we have a divergence. Our trend is down but still on overbought on a mid-term basis and is also the main trend we use. Therefore with the divergence on both scales we are looking for more downside. This game is all about patience, and eventually it will show itself.