“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC


Wednesday, 27 November 2013

27 Nov 2013

Today was a light trading day and prices showed an interest in pushing higher today.  The pattern cannot be read clearly enough to give any EW potential counts.  Therefore we will just rely on our indicator.  Yesterday I wrote that the wedge yesterday was either a 5ht wave or a B wave followed by a impulsive drop before the close.  Today we did not make lower lows, so potentially the B wave has the edge here and we might see higher highs in the next few days.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

We had a change in direction on our short-term trend, but we are still in overbought range.  Therefore the risk is still to the upside.

Prices are following our angles. This blue dotted line is my 1x1 angle.

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

26 Nov 2013

I was contemplating today if the move today will resolve in telling us whether its a higher high for a 5th wave or a B wave.  We got the higher high in the SPX but we got a wedge in the process as well.  So this outcome does not tell us if the impulsive wave down is a 1st wave of some sort or a C wave of a still corrective pattern.

But our aim yesterday was to look for a higher high as early as todays session to complete the move, and that's just what it did. So in that sense we accomplished our goal.  We had a clear negative divergence in the Daily chart last Friday, and we now have that in the intra-day charts as well.

We need to be vigilant and look for a continued lower lows for the 60min chart with our short-term indicator following suit.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

Monday, 25 November 2013

25 Nov 2013

We have touched the upper angle line that was mentioned last week, but patterns still suggest todays move is corrective and that we could see another push to finish off a short term top.  We manage to rest on the 20ma of the 60min chart today.  So let us see where we stand by tomorrow session.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

Friday, 22 November 2013

22 Nov 2013

We are on our target for the upper angle marked by the green dotted line and a blue arrow.  This would be suggestive of where price could encounter some resistance.  W have a double divergence on our intra-day MACD's and we are currently forming a third divergence.  Our daily Stochastics has also made a negative divergence and we should be on a lookout for topping prices.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

Thursday, 21 November 2013

21 Nov 2013

Markets are heading higher.  Yesterdays low was the support we were speculating on with 2 angles and 1 ma holding price to time.  We are currently on an intra-day overbought levels, and could continue from todays close.  Our Short-Term signal is still on a DOWN position but my guess is it will turn up by tomorrow morning.

If we continue higher by the start of the market, then start looking for a topping range.  We should look at the angles above marked by a dotted green line.

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

As expected large swings like today have proven to be hard for the Main-Trend to follow, therefore the short-term will be use for now.

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

20 Nov 2013

Our objective for the SPX has been met which supported today at the 75ma and our converging angles (Time and Price?).  This label of wave 4 is currently favoured, but I am still in the idea that the ABC (PINK) is still possible and would give us an expanding pattern of sorts.  If that is the case then the next probable low could come in the 1760 range. So we should keep an eye on this level.

Our 60min stochastic is in the down position but have already made a positive divergence, so a finished move is not out of the question and a potential move higher for a 5th wave and higher highs could start as early as tomorrow.  For now our indicators tell us we are in a down-trend

Main-Trend: DOWN
Short-Term: DOWN

It is the first time these two indicators have agreed with each other in a while so we should keep an eye for momentum to be on the downside.

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

19 Nov 2013

Markets still in a corrective trend.  We are not sure if we have finished our downward trend or a continuation still has to ensue for tomorrow.  My analysis tells me we should still see lower prices.  the lower angle on our 60min chart is converging with our 75ma (Blue Arrow), and I believe this will be a good support.  It is also nearing my 1x1 line (Dark blue dotted line).

If in the case there is an acceleration down then we must keep our shorts for a while longer till we see a turn in the short-term trend currently sporting a downward trend or the intra day indicator shows an up push out of oversold.

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed and still overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

Monday, 18 November 2013

18 Nov 2013

Higher highs in the SPX was achieved today with the expectations that it would hit near our upper angle above 1800.  The question now is if the downward move late this afternoon is a corrective or a start of a new trend.  We will label the as a 4th wave for now until we are certain the trend has indeed changed.  Todays low also touched one of our lower angles before a bounce occurred, only supposing it briefly. 

Main-Trend: UP (Unconfirmed but still overbought)
Short-Term: DOWN

Friday, 15 November 2013

15 Nov 2013

As prices continue higher, the less likely it is that we are seeing an ABC pattern forming for a B wave.  Our angles continue to be a magnet for prices and it seems we are looking for higher highs to establish the next resistance just above 1800 level on the SPX.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Confirmed)
Short-Term: UP

The discrepancies to the main-trend lies with volatility and even when confirmed it is still in overbought territory.  This is typical behaviour of price volatility vs. indicator.  The only resolution to this is a neg. divergence or an exit out of overbought range.

Another count which I prefer as a major count can be seen below... and although a favoured count over other EW counts, we should always follow our trend indicator.

Thursday, 14 November 2013

14 Nov 2013

Prices chugged higher today at our apex of the two angles that have been the controlling factor the SPX.  Todays pivot could be some top of some sort, and the reason we say this is that we could be seeing a wedging pattern since the lows made on the 8th of Nov and a bigger wedge forming since the high of September and low in October as evidence in our 60min chart below.  Could we be witnessing a ending pattern here soon?

Main-Trend: DOWN (unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Volatility has not been kind to our main trend do to the fast moving prices.  This is why we have the short-term trend that is more reliable but ever changing.  For now we are following the shorter term trend and that is showing a divergence at the moment.  The weekly, daily, and 60min charts are all touching its upper BB line.  So we should at least expect a pull back if todays top turns out to be a 3rd wave shown below on the 15min chart.



Wednesday, 13 November 2013

13 Nov 2013

We have our higher high today on the SPX.  The patterns seem to suggest the mentioned ABC in 3wave zigzag formation.  The daily stochastics has also made a negative divergence with price.  So we should watch for a reversal.  If this is a C wave pattern down then it will be an impulsive one and most likely in 3 wave format as well.

Main-Trend: DOWN(Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP (Neg. Div.)

Remember that we should always wait for any of our indicators to confirm.  So if you are going short a daily or intra-day trend should be in the down-trending position.

Tuesday, 12 November 2013

12 Nov 2013

Seems the corrective move was not over and yesterdays triangulated pattern had fooled me into thinking it was a 4th or B wave of some sort.  Today, prices moved below another trend line and seems to be following that trend.  Both yesterdays and todays trend line resistance are approaching an apex so we should watch for this. 

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Monday, 11 November 2013

11 Nov 2013

There seems to be a triangular pattern showing up on the intraday charts of the SPX and in EW that would either be considered a 4th or a B wave.  This means prices will go higher.  Prices seems to be trying to break the upper trend line just above it.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: UP

Friday, 8 November 2013

8 Nov 2013

The fake-out yesterday took the bulls out early morning, then took out the bears this morning as markets rose early morning.  "Taper" fear did nothing to scare markets.  The analysis yesterday told us that a short term bottom was in but cautioned that our trend was still down trending.  Todays move topped out at the end of the day right near the angle that has been significant resistance level.

Although we have significantly seen a impulsive manner, we should remember that we are still in a down phase short-term.  Volatility will always skew our Main-trend as shown yesterday where it had turned down but was not confirmed.  By the end of the day today our Main-Trend had returned back to "UP".

Our EW pattern tells us that we have an impulsive move and that we have a 5 wave structure.  So we should look for a confirmation of our Short-Term trend to turn "UP" next week.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

Possible 5min EW count:

Thursday, 7 November 2013

7 Nov 2013

the SPX made a B-line for the downside today, just when everything was looking up before the market opened.  I'm not sure if we are done with the move to the downside, but it seems we have made a 5 wave move down with a wedging pattern in the intra-day charts.  Let us see if we get a corrective move tomorrow or an impulsive one.  For now the count made on yesterdays 5min chart looks pretty good calling for a C wave move down.  Question will be if this is an ABC for Awave or some sort of ABC for a 2nd or 4th wave.  The daily stochastics still has a long way down and we would want to see it curl up to have a potential of changing the trend.

Main-Trend: DOWN (Unconfirmed)
Short-Term: DOWN

Resting on support of the up-trend.

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

6 Nov 2013

The SPX intra rally this morning was higher than what I had expected, but nevertheless it has clarified a bit more of the pattern.  I would not use EW alone as an analysis but its good practice to help with probability, such as yesterdays C wave rally that was expected today.  By the end of the day, we just needed to alter some of the counts.  Overall though I feel we are still corrective and that a "downward" correction still exist.  Our main-trend still tells us that we are in an upward direction, so there is no confirmation long-term or short that a trend has changed.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP

Tuesday, 5 November 2013

5 Nov 2013

The sentiment on my part seem to be that we are still in a corrective move.  The question is, if this correction is a uptrend corrective counter move or if this correction is a corrective move from a downtrend starting from its Oct highs.  If we can isolate the corrective nature of the move then  we could possibly set-up for the stronger moving direction.  There seems to be no urgent move to the downside causing me to think that this is just a levelling off till it moves higher, but we have to keep an open mind. Therefore I have included a possible BEARISH SCENARIO at the bottom of this post (2nd chart).

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: UP



Monday, 4 November 2013

4 Nov 2013

Sorry for the late post.  Been busy the past few days.  So far patterns indicate a sideways move along one of our angles.  This looks more corrective than impulsive.  As we hover along the angle shown in the chart below, we can see that the Stoch. have made it back to overbought.  A move back down by the Stochastics with a lower high would confirm lower lows to come.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: Down

Friday, 1 November 2013

1 Nov 2013

Yesterdays comment on the possible 75ma on the 60min chart support was indeed the outcome of todays low.  A rally ensued thereafter, and although we cannot rule out a finished correction, we do have what seems to look like a 5 wave move up.  This could also be seen as a C wave of a B wave.  Therefore we should see what Monday has in store for us. 

I do believe that Nov 4 is also a reactionary day.  Todays reactionary date was a bit subdued, so we must allow it a few days to process itself.  It might be possible that yesterdays move was the reactionary date that was a day early.  All this is speculation until the pattern has formed so lets not get ahead of ourselves and just trade the trend.

Main-Trend: UP
Short-Term: DOWN

Our weekly SPX chart has formed a spinning top, but it is a positive candle and not a red one.  Just something to note.

Another possibility move would be to the upside assuming ABC is done and todays 5 wave rally is the 1st wave.