“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Monday 31 August 2015

31 Aug 2015 - Not Another Manic Monday..

Big difference between last Monday and this Monday.  Everything seems to be getting back to normal.  Indicators have also closed the gap between the volatile price moves.  So is this over?  Nothing is for certain, but on an intra-day level things are still sitting on a thin line between bearish and bullish.  The bias though at the moment is a near term bearish trend as seen with the overnight sloshing of price sideways.  The reason why I am bearish is that the intra-day charts along with the monthly chart has prices below its 20 moving averages.  This has always been the key to a long standing support or resistance.  Therefore, we shall see the outcome tomorrow.  Look for an acceleration down if indicators become OS from its down trending position right now.  Any OS status for an extended period of time could also manipulate the ST trend into turning down.  This would be another characteristic of OS/OB condition to look out for.

Starting today, the MT will be removed and replaced by the Market sentiment to better clarify the longer term trend.  This should also alleviate the confusion between the two sentiment indicator.

SEN: BEARISH
ST: UP
PA: NA

With a signal above not in SYNC, it is apparent that a trade could not be made, hence the sideways and clueless nature of the signals.  As I write this, the ES futures chart has entered OS in the hourly.  This should be watched overnight to see if there is a prolonging of stay at this level (UPDATE: Price is already 36 pts. lower as of 11PM EST).  Again, the rules above applies for all charts no matter what time frame, and will reflect and affect each other.

The monthly chart has printed and prices being under the 20wk MA is a bearish sign.  This MA has held since 2011.  Be aware of this "fact"


Saturday 29 August 2015

Big Deal?

One thing is for sure, this should move Mondays market unless they down play this statement before the market opens on Monday;

"The breaking news is that Fischer says the Fed should not wait until inflation hits 2% to begin tightening," Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey said. "That sounds like a Green light to us ... Today’s news represents an important change possibly in the leadership of the Fed’s position, which clears the way for action on September 17."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-fischer-jackson-hole-inflation-speech-transcript-august-29-2015-2015-8#ixzz3kFaoRn9o

Friday 28 August 2015

28 Aug 2015 - Giving Up Nothing..

The bulls were not calling it quits through the last hour of trading as it seems it might.  The hourly looked bearish into the close only to be ramped back up.  With such a performance, the intra-day charts still remained OB, which gives a risk of acceleration to the upside.  The only thing that can keep a lid on the rally is the 60min. 75MA.  Lets watch for this on Monday or what the future does over the weekend.

One thing to note though is that the intra-day indicators have now reached OB which is also a sign of a reset if it exits OB soon.  An extended stay in OB will likely advance lagging signals and this would put the bulls in control.  Therefore next week is crucial and that is putting it mildly.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

Make no mistake, markets are still in bearish sentiment, and rallies like we had this week cant be helped when keeping bearish position.  This is why acceleration in price helps to pad the margin of error (Evidence in ST signals this past week).  Any quick push lower or higher is met with the same magnitude of energy, and one needs to let things settle down before anything can be established in terms of a clear trend.


EW count theory:

Thursday 27 August 2015

27 Aug 2015 - Rally Strong

With the Siderograph dates posted yesterday, we are still in the range of a powerful signal.  From the looks of todays powerful rally, it could just be a bottom setup.  But I need to remind everyone that we are still in a bear market or signalling one that is.  Price pattern still looks corrective, but will update if data changes.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: NA

Link: ZeroHedge -

JPM Head Quant Warns Second Market Crash May Be Imminent: Violent Selling Could Return On Thursday



Wednesday 26 August 2015

26 Aug 2015 - Correct On Corrective..

Yesterday I saw what could be a setup for a corrective rally in form of an abc.  Today it looks to be correct with a c-wave on the rise today.  The question in an EW perspective is if this rally is over and a label of c-wave can be had.  That would be a hard question to answer.  Based on past experiences though, a 4th wave does form around the previous 4th.  Since we are at that level now, the risk is a lot less for "dip shorters".

Following our rule on how to take away from the indicator, I believe with the indicators in the daily still in OS, the risk of a slide still outweigh a bullish outcome.  If things change I will note it here of course.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note that there is a potentially powerful setup occurring tomorrow or the 28th of Aug. on the Siderograph..




Tuesday 25 August 2015

25 Aug 2015 - Slip N Slide

OS is the name of the game.  accelerations might not happen out of the gates, but they surprise you just when you think prices were stabilizing.

The EW count in the intra-day charts has a possible abc pattern progressing, and could put us in a rally for tomorrow if the count is true.  As always the ST still is pointing down with an accelerating indicator so the surprise is always to the downside here.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN


Bonus:

Monday 24 August 2015

24 Aug 2015 - Not Quite Black And Blue Monday

Was today expected?  Of course, it had to happen.  Maybe not expected to this day, but it was coming nonetheless.  I do not think this is over yet, and boy was today a gift if you were long and were able to get out on this rally.  Those who sold near the bottom might have lost money, but I would not sweat it.  You know the trend and all you need to do is follow it.  If you are not convinced before, hopefully you will be now.

The bears who followed the signal from the ST a few days ago can now rest a bit easy since there is a good spread on their profits regardless of the rally, but they should still be on their toes since this is a volatile market.

Since this is an OS market, the risk of an acceleration down is high, and holding the short position is a low risk proposition.  Of course depending on which time frame you use, you would need to watch an exit of any OS condition to signal your trade.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: Notice how prices in the SPX could not even close above 1900.  I would give this 3 days to try to close above 1900, if it does not then you will have your answer as to the next move.


BONUS:  Notice the 200 day moving average position before the breakdown in price occurred.  Price have been supported at the 2070 level even before the 200 day moving average reached this level.  When it did, price decided it was good enough to turn down.  Lets keep this in mind for the future.

Canada EH?

Was this a surprise?

Before:

After: Close Enough EH!!!

Friday 21 August 2015

21 Aug 2015 - Heckelled and Jeckelled

I have been trolled too many times this week saying how bearish I was, and how I was wrong about my sentiments. This was from one person and I actually had to close my email account and glad I made up the email account for such guests.  I make it a point not to fall in love with a stock, so when I say I have a target of so and so, it doesn't not mean I am out to get you.  Therefore, trade how you like to trade and don't ask me to bet you on it.  This is just childish behavior.

Since the ST turned down a few days ago, we had a pretty consistent drop and it held through into the after hours market.  This has not been experienced in a very long time.  How long?  Well, the last time we had spells like these were in 2012.  Quite a few years ago, and many will have to start conditioning themselves back to these bearish moves.  It won't be easy, that's why I have said before over and over again that the mentality needs to shape into defensive or short even while markets move sideways to up.  This ride is about to make so surprised turns.  Make your decisions for all scenarios before the markets open for the next day and execute on them.  Hesitations will be problem sooner than later.

Does this look like a Bullish chart?  I don't claim a crash is coming, but what I do know is we are at risk of one. or a very nasty slide. With my market sentiment in Bear Mode, I would be an idiot to think I am so much smarter than an indicator that collects data for me and tells me what it thinks and trade against it.  As I write this, the SPX just dropped 5 more pts. into the close.  New Norm?  Who knows..  One thing is for sure, the "buy the dippers" are thinning out.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note:  Notice that most if not all the trend line supports you chartists are drawing have been cut through like its not even there.  A rally will come sooner or later, but it would just serve to exit the train before it starts to run too fast to even jump out of.


Thursday 20 August 2015

20 Aug 2015 - Bounces Harder To Come By...

With the close below the 200 day, the market is critical, and I usually give it 3 days to pull out of a hole, before I call it what it is.  But tomorrow is Friday and well the weekend will be long for the bulls if markets close tomorrow still below its 200 day moving average.  Keep this in mind as the risk is high for markets to slide due to our indicators pointing south.

This market is looking like the California drought,  liquidity is pretty dried up.  The push by futures lower after today's close doesn't spell confidence builder either.  However this is not a 1 day market event.  Therefore, those underwater or in a losing trade should look at their charts tonight and look for an exit strategy.  Yes, the market could bounce, but ultimately you still need a confirmation of that bounce as a real bounce.

We have to the right of our blog the market indicator that has been in Bear mode since June 9th, and with the clustering of the ST's in recent weeks, we got a clue that a move would be volatile.  Indeed today was pretty volatile.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Next stop... 2020 SPX if we cannot break above the 200 day MA.


Note: The daily chart has an indicator that is not even close to OS, yet prices have already surpassed the last lows made in March and early July.  Although this is a positive divergence it is more in my belief as an indicator that has not reached its OS level, which means prices have a high risk of accelerating some more.


Wednesday 19 August 2015

ES EW UPDATE

The chart below was taken from yesterdays market and do not show the move lower today, but the count is still good and possible.

19 Aug 2015 - Market Playing Chicken

I swear watching the SPX play with the 200 day moving average is like playing chicken.  Today though we have closed 2 pts. above the 200 day which is too close for comfort for the bulls.  With the ST turning down it is also a bad sign of things to come for the next few days, unless confirmed with a thrust down past the 200 and a distancing from it.  This would then be very, very bearish indeed.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN


Tuesday 18 August 2015

18 Aug 2015 - Clustering

Notice the clustering of the ST since the end of July, and notice the clustering just before the volatility hit in June.  We are again witnessing a possible volatility coming back, and we should be watchful of the OB or OS conditions and how long they linger in their respective range.  I've said before that the longer they are in those extreme range the further out price gets.  This movement of furthering out is what I call the safe bet.  The reason is of course the distance a price pulls away from your initiated buy or sell point.  If ever there was a turn around in sentiment, there will be a high chance that not all profits would be retraced for a loss.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP


Monday 17 August 2015

17 Aug 2015 - Sub Dividing

One can't help to feel that sub-dividing patterns like these makes it likely a corrective move.  The question would be as to how far this corrective move started.  Did it start in May, or maybe in July.  The longer prices stay at this level the stronger the case for a support, and with that said we can see a possible push higher in a bullish way.

A decision has to be made soon preferably within this month, and the bears need to take advantage now or lose the opportunity if prices do make higher highs.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP



Friday 14 August 2015

14 Aug 2015 - Wishy Washy..

We already know what happens to the indicators when there is volatility involved, so we just have to ride it out once more.  This week the break of the 200 day MA did not materialize into anything significant.  In fact, the bulls are still very much quite alive.  Our EW option is open to having the lows this week be a corrective low of sorts (a-b-c).

In a psychological stand point, dip buying has been the norm.  Since I cannot say for certain if the dip buyers are on the right side of the trade or not, we can only give them the benefit of the doubt.  Our market sentiment is still bearish therefore I urge caution on dip buying.  If the indicators stay bearish, chances are that a needed shift by dip buyers from complacent to defensive will be realized too late.

I know this is boring, when a blog like mine just keep repeating the same sentiment over and over again, but this is how we prepare ourselves mentally and financially.  In the end we become accustomed to crossing our T's and dotting our I's that it becomes second nature.  This is the only way to see if a trend has really changed.  Boring.. Simple.. Effective.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP


Thursday 13 August 2015

13 Aug 2015 - Paint Dries Faster

I think at this point with the market going nowhere for 8 months, I can honestly say that many more are growing impatient.  Which ever side of the game you are on, a clear cut direction is better than this sideways market.

At least the ST has turned down again becoming in sync with the medium term trend.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: NA


Wednesday 12 August 2015

12 Aug 2015 - Bulls Not Giving Up

What a rally the SPX had into close, retracing the overnight waterfall decline.  This is indeed very impressive.  The Bulls were not going to give up the 200 day MA too easily.  For a moment today I thought that the ST would surely turn down, but it has held up well.

The question now is if this low is an ending abc for a (green ii).  if a iii-wave is due, then the bearish signs are in trouble because Aug. needs to close negative to keep the bearish sentiments alive.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: NA


Tuesday 11 August 2015

11 Aug 2015 - 1618 Part II

1618 Days from the Mar. 2009 low was a good trigger.  But with any cycle study, it is harder to see how long or short this run could last.  The bears however can't start counting their money yet as prices are still being supported by the 200day MA. in the SPX.

There is a price pattern that could turn into an a-b-c-d-e triangular pattern, so watch for a possible rally if the pattern is true.  The so called start of currency war could under-mind the stock market as well, and based on the report posted by ZeroHedge, we could just continue going lower.  As I have mentioned before, the reason why one should not go against the trend is prices ability to accelerate which could just leave you holding the bag.  This is true 99% of the time unfortunately.  So do not think we are greater than the overall market and stay humble, and we should all profit from any move up or down.  Add to this a very illiquid market that has not been seen for a long time.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN



Bonus:
@GratefulTrades shared a TwiT

Monday 10 August 2015

10 Aug 2015 - 1618 Days

Tomorrow will be 1618 days.  Just keep it in mind in case of an event.  It may be nothing of course..

With today's market whipsawing back to a daily resistance level, it will be something to watch to see if the EW count of abc is correct for a 2nd wave.  This would of course be bearish.  nonetheless we are at a bearish time, and should not be trying to pick a dip to buy until our market sentiment changes to bullish again.  I will keep it short and provide some nice charts for your viewing pleasure.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

Based on our EW, if the count is correct then we should push lower, but the ST and PA says otherwise.  Will have to wait till tomorrow I suppose.




Sunday 9 August 2015

If There Is One Article To Read To The End, It Would Be This...

Share by Zero Hedge

It is too bad the Americans did not choose this man to be president when he tried to run for it.  I often thought that if only I was American, this is the man I would vote for.  So much wisdom...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-06/ron-pauls-foreign-policy-peace-central-message-freedom

https://youtu.be/vQnNBlwucT0?t=10m

Friday 7 August 2015

7 Aug 2015 - 200 Bounce

Who would have guessed that we would have a bounce here in the late afternoon.  This is getting hairy, and too close for comfort for the bulls who still insist that this is a bull market.  For now though as it stands from Jun 9th, we have been in a bear market.

I was listening to an INTERVIEW last night and I thought you should take a LISTEN if you don't already know.  A very good gauge on whether to be bullish or bearish that makes sense.  I believe we are here, and even though the indexes are fighting and staying near their highs, the stocks however have already been dropping like flies.

With OS conditions, the risk for more downside is high.  At this point nothing is holding price up other than the 200 day.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

The indicators above are all in SYNC which makes for low risk trades.


NOTE: While listening to the linked interview, I also went and checked the percentage of stocks above their respective MA.  Most if not all are bearish...  So if you think you know better then kudos to you.  If you are like me and the many who don't, then follow the indicators as they move, chances are you will be right more than you will be wrong with this technique.


Thursday 6 August 2015

6 Aug 2015 - A Break Of Support?

SPX has broken a short-term support but it is not overtly bearish yet.  But this is not so with the Dow Jones or the Russell index.  Both have broken to new lows.  This should be worrying since the SPX as we know is sitting near its 200 day MA support which is inching up by the day.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN


BONUS: PPT

Wednesday 5 August 2015

5 Aug 2015 - Nowhere To Run

Looks like prices really are fighting this line, and it seems it does not want to give us a clue as to its intention.  I will stick with a bearish setup to trigger my trade since we are in a bearish market.  Added to this, a down trending ST which has not changed direction.

Right now, I believe the bullish play here is if prices can move above 2115 and bearish if it can move below 2087. By doing so, it would increase each of the chances of continuing its trend.  The bearish camp really needs to break that 200 day MA line soon though or it will definitely become a strong line of support the longer it stays near and above it.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

Note:  The 200 day MA is actually at 2071 at the moment as I forgot to update the green support bar above.

Tuesday 4 August 2015

4 Aug 2015 - Tug Of War

There is still no clear trend as to where a prices are headed.  I have used all the words possible to describe this market from stagnant, sideways affair, volatile, to no urgency.  It has been this way since the start of 2015.  Many cycle analysts are looking at 2015 as a breakout year, because they say that it "should" be this way.  I can neither deny or confirm those theories myself, but what I do know is what's in front of my eyes.

The trend is down for the short-term but what I need to see is for it to manipulate the mid-term sentiment that has the market up at the moment.  This market at the moment is at limbo (I haven't used this word this year I do believe).  I guess the easiest way we can describe this market is that it is standing in front of a line.  On one side is a bullish side, and on the other is a bearish side, and all it takes is one step to turn a market into a bull or bear market.  Confidence builds if we are much further from that line.  This is why we keep seeing the ST varying from Up trend to Down trend in a matter or days and this is also why the MT is UP while the Market Sentiment to the right is Bearish.

It is always a hard market to play when you are playing the line.  So as it was said yesterday, things need to play out on their own before we know where the market will pull us into.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA


Monday 3 August 2015

3 Aug 2015 - It Can Still Go Both Ways

Looks as if prices in the SPX is still in between a down sloping resistance and a rising support.  This can still go both ways.  The ST however has turned down today so in the near term things seem to be bearish.  Depending on your investment strategy, the MT (Mid-Term) is open to an upside bias.  As I have said in the past, when indicators are not in agreement it is best left to clear itself out.

If you are the risk averse, then ideally it is better to be consistent and work with a time frame that works for you rather than jumping from one time-frame to another.

Looks like China has indeed signaled a weakening world economy, and what better way to say it than to look at one mans misery.  I have linked a blog Shared by "The Sentiment Trader" which confirms our belief that something wicked this way comes.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN