“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Friday 29 July 2016

29 Jul 2016- EOD, EOW, EOM

While monthly prices have moved to higher highs, the end cannot be said for the candle formation.  The monthly higher BB line has closed at 2182.67 and most likely extend higher by Mondays new monthly open.  We should then see the new level at which a possible piercing candle could occur.  The monthly signals however are still in a negative divergence and this is likely just ticking to end the run.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA

Price on an intra-day level tried to close above the trendline I drew last week and almost got there.  I guess we should see it try its luck in the new month.  I cannot stress enough that the monthly chart is the most important to watch at the moment, and we should be on the lookout as to what transpires for August.


Thursday 28 July 2016

28 Jul 2016 - EOD

Positive day but still no HH in the SPX. Another Reset Signal while being range bound should say that something is ready to happen.  A break above the recent trendline drawn that is acting as resistance would confirm the HH intention.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 28th


Wednesday 27 July 2016

27 Jul 2016 - EOD

Another day, another reset.  Wow.. This is becoming redundant, it's a wonder if it even still works anymore..

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: July 27th


Tuesday 26 July 2016

26 Jul 2016 - EOD

Still a sideways affair.  This could produce a continuation eventually.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Monday 25 July 2016

Jul 25 2016 - EOD

Markets are still poised to move higher and possibly break the trendline that I drew last week that is holding prices at resistance on the SPX.  I do believe though that once it is broken and a higher high is made that we should be on the lookout for a pullback.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 25th

Note: Rare to see 4 reset signals in such close trading days yet prices are still forming a sideways move.  The momentum here could be signalling some sort of weakness, so perhaps a final push to HH.


Friday 22 July 2016

22 Jul 2016 - EOD, EOW

More shooting, more ramp up, more fear mongering,  Pessimistic attitudes is the name of the game.  I'm going to say this very simple tell.. Daily MACD is just weak as F'K.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 22 Bias Upside


Thursday 21 July 2016

21 Jul 2016 - EOD

A turn up of the intra-signals tomorrow would activate another RESET for an upside bias.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: Possible for tomorrow


Wednesday 20 July 2016

20 Jul 2016 - EOD

We are now within 5 pts of the SPX target and should start looking for a reversal signal.  While we look for this reversal signal we should stay very disciplined and wait for a confirmation.  With the resets happening the past few trading days it is most likely nearing a high, therefore these signals should be watch very carefully in the case that a long trade was taken.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA

Note: There is a negative divergence in the intra-charts that has been progressing the past few days as well.  While it may not guarantee a reversal, one must also be aware if in the possibility of one occurring.


Tuesday 19 July 2016

19 Jul 2016 - EOD

Sideways, triangle, reset, more #Upside

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 19 (Biased Upside)


Monday 18 July 2016

18 Jul 2016 - EOD

France tragedy, Turkish coup, and moe police shooting in the US of A is not going to stop this market on chugging higher.  Fear is not driving this market for sure, and it has many baffled as to how long it can go.  Unfortunately, I don't have that answer either.  What I do know is we are inching now, and things can get hairy once we hit our range which is roughly 5 -10 pts away in the SPX.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Friday 15 July 2016

15 Jul 2016 - EOD, EOW

The weekly price bar pierced the upper BB line earlier this week, but the close is what is important here.  The fact price closed the week above the upper BB line is bullish.  Also the Bar created this week is not a reversal type of bar.  Most likely will cause the bar next week to push higher and try for that 2180 range I mentioned before.  A reset has been triggered today for a bias upside move, Although based on my target if correct, there wouldn't be much of this upside left, but lets leave it to the indicator to do its job.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 15 (bias upside)


Thursday 14 July 2016

14 Jul 2016 - EOD

Well the gap up didn't take long.  Bullish and OB sentiment calls for Bullish and OB outcome.  Can't simplify it enough.  Seems price is following the Green dotted trend line I drew up last week.  I do not have an indicator yet of a possible CIT.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Wednesday 13 July 2016

13 Jul 2016 - EOD

A pause after a few days of accelerations.  Let us be clear that markets are still OB and can accelerate or gap up at anytime. So far indicators shows that any correction is just that.. "A Correction"..

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA



Tuesday 12 July 2016

12 Jul 2016 - EOD

High of day at 2155.40.  I would say that price is just chuggin' higher.  Again reiterating from yesterday's post is the emphasis of the weekly and monthly close.  So far though nothing new to add other than another new high.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Monday 11 July 2016

11 Jul 2016 - EOD

New highs has been established.  So here are where the time frames stands..  The weekly start has brought about a new high and also pierced the upper BB line at 2138.29. The monthly however has not touched the upper BB line at 2174.90 which is 30+ pts. away.  We may never hit this, but the first clues to this would be if price is able to close the week below the weekly upper BB line as it did today.  Not only will it signal a weak sentiment but also a reversal bar.  Looking then to lower time-frame to also show its negative sentiment would be ideal.  The weekly neg. divergence from the April highs to current is on the verge of disappearing, and if prices remains up with signals exceeding the divergent requirement, we can be assured that the bulls are still carrying on.  This is of course what OB conditions look like and should be studied by the people who visit this blog and also to understand what this blog is all about.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA (Reset from early Jul. is dead on.)

There is no hokus pokus on this site.  Only straight signal behavioural analysis.  While I am aware of cycles and EW counts, this method still has the highest success rate, but of course human emotions if not controlled will always buck the trend.




Friday 8 July 2016

8 Jul 2016 - EOD, EOW

Review Last Week's EOW post where it was suggested prices would be looking to move for HH.  This week should show the importance of technical analysis through time frames.  Obviously it is hard to view and decide on which signals to follow, but with practice and experience of analyzing multiple time-frames, it does get easier.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA

As stated last week, the upper BB line at 2169 was the price to target, but everything is dynamic, and this weeks move in price and signals have moved that upper BB line to 2173.56.  So while the upper BB line pushes up and down, we can see a possible range price could meet.  On a EW level, This minute formation of a top or HH could equal that of the 1st wave made from the Feb. lows to the high on Feb 22.  If so, then the ideal 1= 5 target would be 2141 SPX level.



Thursday 7 July 2016

7 Jul 2016 - EOD

Intra-day Neg. Divergence has occurred, so be on your toes, even if that divergence is not as evident on the charts.  ST is still UP, so a contradicting position as to how to trade this.  On an intra-day basis it is on a short trade bias, meaning this counter trend should be intra-day trade until it can be confirmed.  The rally today near the end of the day is also a reset made by the intra day chart, which is biased to the upside.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 6th


BONUS:


Wednesday 6 July 2016

6 Jul 2016 - EOD

Clearly UP, but have we near the terminal high?  Some cycle analyst think so, and although we have converging cycles, we still need to bring to the table a confirming CIT.  Today though, we do not have that, and have strong bias towards the upside.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jul 6th

Courtesy of Ed Carlson - http://seattletechnicaladvisors.com/blog.html


Tuesday 5 July 2016

5 jul 2016 - EOD

IF the Intra-Chart signals come out of OS then a reset will occur for a bias upside.  This however has not happened yet entering the close of today's session.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA (possible tomorrow if signal criteria is met).


Friday 1 July 2016

1 Jul 2016 - EOD, EOW, Happy Canada Day..

Markets rise, most stocks don't.  The Weekly bar has engulfed all the bars the past 14 weeks.  This should paint a picture of how bullish this week was.  On a Monthly scale the top BB line is at 2169 and if signals are looking to diverge, I would say that this is the perfect time to make a new high beating out last years May High.  Nothing in the Monthly chart suggests a reversal down with price bars ending positive the last 4 consecutive months, and signals at OB, Diverging (Only if price makes a new ATH).  A conundrum for the Bears for sure.  The best view on EW here would be that the SPX cash chart is producing a last ditch effort for a 5th wave of some kind of a subwave 3.  What this means is that there will be a "correction".  There also should be another move to a "Newer ATH".  Sounds surprising with all these economic and geopolitical woes doesn't it?  I can't explain it, but it's what the patterns are telling me could happen.  The only way I can explain the markets going up is if the equity markets are being used as safe havens from gov't or possible currency instability.

Either way, there will be a lot of people who will not see this coming.  If we count the year 2010 lows around SPX 1000 and count 2169 SPX as the high for a complete wave-3 (green).  Then the Fib. results we get are:

38.2% at 1718 SPX range
50% at 1580 SPX range (ALSO THE LAST TWO TOPS 2000 & 2007)
61.8% at 1445 range

These are the levels I would watch for a wave-4 to end before making a trek to ATH.  Possibly to 2646 SPX as the last and final leg of a wave-5 (Green) which is also 100% of wave-1 (green).

Note: Notice the 2 Moving Averages that I watch which is also converging with the range given by the Fib. levels of Wave 2-3 (Green).



SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA

Don't hold your breath for a crash yet as price, signals, patterns are all looking bullish.  There are no clues as of this moment to suggest a reversal will take place.  That said, it does not also mean it can't happen.  Watch the indicators...