“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese philosopher, 6th century BC

PAYPAL

Thursday 30 June 2016

30 Jun 2016 - EOD, EOM

Week ending, and month ending is not looking so bad going into Friday. Compared to where the market was at the beginning of the week, it really turned it around like nothing happened. Yet when looking at financials and individual stocks, you can see that it's not all peachy.  This still has to be an impressive move.

Anything can happen I suppose, and lets give the last day of the week tomorrow the benefit of the doubt that there is still hope for the bears.  As the monthly charts go, it's setting itself up to make and beat the highs made in May of last year.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA:UP
R: NA


Wednesday 29 June 2016

29 Jun 2016 - EOD

Very impulsive move indeed.  The 200 min. MA is at 2080 SPX, so it is possible that price is aiming for this.  The important fact here is that the ST has turned UP, therefore we would be cautious of any downside move until the ST has removed itself and back to a downward trend.  The reset I was looking for this morning did not materialize as our signal did not turn down on an intra-day basis.  I have been cautioning on the volatility of price affecting the signal triggers in which a lag is most likely to occur.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Tuesday 28 June 2016

EXTRA EXTRA

Normally 1 post a day is suffice, but couldn't help by seeing this pattern show up.  Therefore hope to share it with EWT fanatics out there.  With signals close to resetting, this count could be a doozy.

Chart is of the ES futures market that I also shared on my twitter account earlier.



28 Jun 2016 - EOD

The rally extended from last night is quite long in the tooth.  The ES still has a reset signal in effect for a downside bias.  If the SPX Intra-day chart turns down tomorrow, it will signal the reset in the cash market for a downside bias.  Note though that with today's push above the 200 day MA, the ST should turn up tomorrow.  However as I said, if the signal turns down tomorrow, it is palpable that the ST can remain down.

SEN: Bullish (Down Trending)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: Possible for 29 Jun a.m.


27 Jun 2016 - EOD

Broken 200 MA without a blink of an eye.  If SPX continues downward, my next target would be in the 1970 to 1940 level.  These level would fall inline with a wave-2 forecast.  Keep in mind that the wave 3 still exist with the impulsive move indicating that it is still very much in control.

SEN: Bullish (Down Trending)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA

Note: Any volatile move upwards will cause signals to lag, but a strong push back above the 2020 level would suggest we are at least at a temporary support zone.  Possibly an opportunity if ST stays down that we could get a Reset signal that favour the downside.



Friday 24 June 2016

24 Jun 2016 - EOD, EOW

All about the exit,  the Brexit sure made a big hype in the markets.  Now we have the WExit (Week Exit).  So what does it look like on a weekly bar? Very red, and very long...  The bar has pierced the 75 week MA at 2044.98.  The possibility of a test from the underside is always possible so watch to see if it becomes a significant resistance next week.  The next level down is 1855, the 200 week MA.
The indicators the past few days we were looking at won out again.  If you guys have not seen the proof over and over again from past posts, the indicators winning ratios are very very strong.  All it takes is the belief in the signals, and recognizing mass trader sentiment through the indicator.  What are their long term views through indicator.  What are their intra-day views through indicator.  Once you master these.  The whole technical analysis will greatly improve and will be easier to understand.

Our ST the past few days signalled an UP trend, but we already know that the sentiment is bullish but currently down-trending, meaning that if you are playing the long-term UP trend that the trend is not in SYNC and this is the phase to stay out if you are playing the long side.

Since the ST is DOWN today, and SEN is bullish with a down-trend, we can see that strength is favouring downside bias.  This can be cascaded down to smaller time frames, but for the sake of simplifying the analysis, it is best to concentrate on just 1 or 2 time-frames.  What one time-frame indicator does affects the other time-frames indicator.  You just have to figure out who is following who.  This same theory or process is how we found that the rally the past few days had a risk of a trap both in index and currency pair.  While I did not know how severe the push lower in this event would be, this is up to the individual to assess the risk they are willing to take, and unfortunately human emotions and logic still need to be used.

The Mid-May low is key in identifying or eliminating a wave-c of 2 for a 3rd wave higher if markets are moving to new highs.  A break of this will confirm that this is not the case, and that probably a bigger correction is in place or the new trend has taken over.  Ultimately the lows in Feb. of this year is the same scenario in which prices can be labelled corrective until such time this low is broken.  Even an impulsive move lower can be a 5 wave down and still be considered corrective instead of motive.  This is why wave-3 in red is labelled at the lower-right corner.  Only until we break 1810 can the wave-3 red possibility increase.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA


Based on where price ended today, it seems not to be surrounded by support levels or MA suggesting that lower prices can still progress as seen currently in after hours ES chart.  At this time I am inclined to see prices push to the 200 day MA.

Thursday 23 June 2016

23 Jun 2016 - EOD

Seems there was a leak favouring the "Stay".  Markets seem to like the leak as prices moved higher in overnight session.  Could this be a trap?  There is only one signal contradicting the move up in the markets, and that is the MACD.  This MACD has formed a negative divergence not only in the ES, but also the most important market at the moment, the GBP and the FTSE.  I do not know what the results will be at the polls, but the indicators are pointing to a reversal. Lets see if the market sentiment is right about the outcome of the vote.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Wednesday 22 June 2016

22 Jun 2016 - EOD

The ES has been sitting above its 200 minute average for the past couple of days only to fall below it in the last hour of trading, while the NQ has been under its own 200 min average since june 10th.  This is in my eyes still to tight to tell which way the market is leaning, but it has edged off a bit for the bulls into bear territory.

SEN: Bullish (Down-Trending)
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA (Looking for Upside Bias)


Tuesday 21 June 2016

21 Jun 2016 - EOD

Brexit Signal, that is what this market is waiting for.  The past couple of days were nothing to trade about or rave about.  There is one thing everyone should know is that even this market is unsure of where Brexit vote will result to.  The indicators are all hovering on the line between bull and bear.  This is why it is important to study behaviours of these indicators.

SEN: Bullish (Down-trending)
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA


Monday 20 June 2016

20 jUN 2016 - EOD

Mixed bag..  The intra-day charts are showing a reset bias to the downside while the ST is UP.  This is what we call a contradiction trade.  While it is not in SYNC though, it is tradable in that the intra-day charts will supercede the ST on a VERY short-term basis until such that the ST has flipped and SYNC with the intra-charts or vice versa.  Either way both ST and intra-charts are best to sync for a higher risk reward.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: NA
R: NA (Intra-Charts hinting at a bias downside reset)


Friday 17 June 2016

17 Jun 2016 - EOD, EOW

The 200 MA on the intra-day charts of the ES and SPX has been holding the price down all day long.  Bulls need to break above this line while Bears sit pretty here.  The Weekly charts do look to be trending lower, but not confirmed if it is bearish yet.

SEN: Bullish (Down Trending Jun 17)
ST: UP
PA:  NA
R: NA


Thursday 16 June 2016

16 Jun 2016 - EOD

Price closed above the 75 day MA of 2061 which indicates good support at this level.  The candle is also a reversal candle with a bullish engulfing body.  Price low respected the trendline set by the Sept 2015 low and the May 2016 low.  Intra day proved the positive divergence to be true and price rallied.  The ES is performing another possible reset for a downside bias, but the SPX has not shown the same sentiment.  Will have to wait for tomorrow to see what the signals says overnight.  If the intra-signals crosses down at the open tomorrow then the SPX will get its reset, but if not the rally should continue higher.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: NA
R: NA


Wednesday 15 June 2016

15 Jun 2016 - EOD With New Reset Signal

A reset to the downside has been triggered today.  Actually the ES this morning already triggered the signal as prices rallied up.  The late day push lower is just the confirmation of this reset signal at work, coupled by a daily reversal candle.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: Jun 15 (Downside Bias)


Tuesday 14 June 2016

14 Jun 2016 - EOD

Looking at the pattern could have us test the Daily 75 MA at 2058.  Depending on intra-chart signals tomorrow, a rally is possible perhaps after the FED speaks.  Anything below this 75 day MA is trouble in my eyes,

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA (looking for a downside bias)


Monday 13 June 2016

13 Jun 2016 - Random Acts of Terrorism

It seems that with a connected world, we are seeing the conjunctions in the acts of violence around the world.  The fate of these people are one that is for some to be believed written in the sky.  Add to that the prominent figures that people recognizing that have been passing away left right and center this year.  2016 is truly turning out to be an interesting year and we are only half way.

Markets are down as can be expected from the ST turn last Friday.  The acceleration phase is still also to the downside, so people should be cautious of any long side play.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA


Friday 10 June 2016

10 Jun 2016 - EOD, EOW

Yesterday, I spoke of the need for price to push lower for the negative divergence in the weekly to survive.  Being able to study behaviours like this allows us to see the potential move before it happens.  Of course there is also the what if scenarios.  This blog is not all about speculation and high risk, therefore we make a case with solid confirmation.

The combination of the weekly negative divergence and a reversal candle reduces the risk to the short side.  Couple this with the ST that turned down with an OS intra-chart, we could say the bears are in a good spot.  The (Reset) however did not materialize, and resulted in a negative pull-back.  This is the reason why we should all be flexible with our analysis and follow the trend as yesterdays trend in the ST was UP.  Regardless, a small loss if adjusted by EOD today.  We should now look for a reset bias to the downside to SYNC with our ST which turned down today.

SEN: Bullish
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN
R: NA


Target to look at currently is the 2044 area then down to 2020 range.


Thursday 9 June 2016

9 Jun 2016 - EOD

If weekly divergence is to happen, price must draw down by end of day tomorrow or the signal will make and print the higher high negating any neg. divergence.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: Jun 9 (Upside Bias)



Wednesday 8 June 2016

9 Jun 2016 - EOD

Looks like the high should be nearing in EW count from the lows of May 19th.  This move from the lows can be construed as a b-wave end or a 5th of a C-wave 2.

However, the indicators still feels and shows bullishness so again caution on shorting opportunities until a confirmation can be had.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA



Tuesday 7 June 2016

7 Jun 2016 - EOD

Negative divergence are starting to roll over but is still in OB range.  With PA still UP, risk should be minimized for a short.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA


Weekly Chart:

Monday 6 June 2016

6 Jun 2016 - EOD

Not surprising the rise to a higher high since April.  This was expected and would see the weekly chart we are watching fulfill our expectation of a negative divergence on a longer term time-frame.  Because of volatility, I would not expect the ST react fast enough on a CIT.  Therefore, one must exercise caution when trading the downside, and make sure an exit is in place.  Perhaps a 5th of C has topped and a 3rd wave to begin, or a b-wave top has ended and c-wave retracement to perhaps 1920 is starting.  Either way, I am expecting a pull back and that is the important take from all these EW options.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: NA (Upside Bias)


Friday 3 June 2016

3 June 2016 - EOD, EOW

Expecting a higher high to exceed the high made in April to complete the minimum Neg. Divergence on the weekly chart.  For some, the close this week is higher than the close of the weekly high made in April so in that retro-spec. the divergence could be in place.

Watch for a CIT that would push prices for weeks to lower levels once the signal in the weekly exits its OB range.  200 WKLY MA is at 1850, which should be nearing a the levels of the past lows spanning 2.5 years (Aug. 2015, Oct 2014, April 2014).

Immediate time-frame still favours the up-trend where our ST and PA is pointing, keeping things in SYNC.  First straight forward analysis we have had in a while.

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP


Thursday 2 June 2016

Wednesday 1 June 2016

1 June 2016 EOD

SEN: Bullish
ST: UP
PA: UP
R: May 31st (Last reset signal with upside bias)