20 May 2014

ST still in a down position.  A positive for the Bears...  Prices quickly moved lower at the start of the morning and stayed relatively low.  Would like to see a continuation lower and confirm that our ST is still on the right track.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

19 May 2014

Prices have rallied above my preferred distance.  So either my EW count is wrong and some how the count has a complete 5 waves or the 5th wave up to new highs have not finished yet.  Since I am not certain of any of this, there is no need to fret about it and just wait for a clearer picture to develop.  That said, the ST is still on a down-trending position, so we will have to see tomorrow if it changes.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

16 May 2014

From yesterdays low to todays high, we may have formed a 3 wave corrective pattern.  We have resistance from the previous up-trend line and the 75 ma on the 60min chart.  Prices should move lower if we want to have a decent 5 wave declining pattern.  ST still remains to the downside.

On a weekly basis, the candle bar is sporting a neg. reversal doji. 

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

15 May 2014

So much for expecting a brief rally.  Momentum was too strong for any rally to occur and drove prices decisively down.  Our trend on the ST has shifted down and can carry to more lower prices.  Be aware of any impulsive move tomorrow to the downside because this situation could potentially change the sentiments of the MT as well.  I will have to see if longer-term sentiments comes out of OB condition.  This would spell trouble for the bulls and recession to start.  As for now there is no definite EW count to the downside. 

So we should just stay the course of the ST until it tells us otherwise.

MT: UP
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Note: That the weekly charts for the SPX has so far formed a reversal doji and we still have tomorrow before it prints for good.  So watch tomorrows action.  The weekly stochastics is also at a negative divergence.  Therefore the numbers are adding up in the bears favour.  Remember that volatility is in play so anything can happen.  There is just as much bullish pattern as there is bearish pattern.  So if we cannot use these as a gauge to the state of the markets then the one we can rely on is our indicators above.

14 May 2014

Prices have come down lower, and with some indexes sporting a 5 wave EW pattern.  A CIT might be at hand but the issue here is if the main index is sporting the same type of EW pattern.  So far the draw down today has not impacted the ST and remains to the upside, but it could just be a matter of a few hours of trade.  I feel that the intra-day move tomorrow is for a rally, but will have to reassess whether it is a short or longer term rally.  We are entering another pink band where a CIT might occur (shown on chart below).

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

I do have to thank Chris who have been so diligently calculating a top and so far have been dead on with the 1900 call for months now.  Although discouraged at times, it's all just a matter of time I suppose.  Its easier said than done, but so far the target of 1900 has been hit. Now we just have to see if it turns here and look at our patterns and indicators to see what transpires to confirm with the analysis of a top.

13 May 2014

The bullish momentum has finally pushed prices of the SPX above the 1900 level.  The close however is below 1900.  For now this is not so important..  I believe we should try to push higher for an ending 5th wave.  I believe we are close to a CIT, but we should keep on our toes.  The ST is still bullish but making a negative divergence on the daily chart.  I believe that once the intra-day chart forms a negative divergence, you should see a turn down.  This turn down should tell us how impulsive it is.  Any hesitation to the downside might cause us to revisit our count and look to confirm a prolonged move higher.  We will revisit this when we get to that timeline.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP

12 May 2014

The daily bar is bullish. Our ST is bullish, and the SPX is flirting with all time highs.  Nothing really much to say that wasn't said last Friday in regards to the trend of the market.  We do however need to look at the overhead BB which is sitting at 1901 currently.  A touch or a pierce of this level could call in the high and reverse.  A reversal bar to accompany this scenario would also add to the conviction of a CIT.

MT: UP
ST: UP
PA: UP