8 Oct 2014

The ST has turned south today even though markets rallied.. Volatility has created a disconnect with the indicators, but still should be followed.  This is the case so that there is continuity in our analysis, where eventually the markets and indicators will right itself and prove who is to be followed.

Currently I am in favour of the ABC count, and the reason this is so is because of blue (a-wave) as looking like a complete structure and where the new low set today was more of a zigzagging pattern that can be classified as corrective even though it is impulsive should be a (b-wave blue).  Finally the impulsive move up from todays low characteristics of a c-wave or 3rd wave, but again I am leaning towards a c-wave rather than a 3rd wave.  I can be proven wrong eventually..  Right now though my count makes sense.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: NA

NOTE: Yesterdays 2nd chart resembles this count we have drawn above, as well the 3rd chart yesterday still exists as a possibility but it would be an expanded flat triangle of sorts, which would send us back to new lows around the 1890 level.

7 Oct 2014 (MULTIPLE PATTERN PROBABILITY)

The impulsiveness has occurred in both direction for the past 3 days which makes it hard to tell which direction its really going in.  The EW pattern seems to me, a b-wave pattern down with a likelihood of a c-wave up.  Since c-waves are impulsive as well, we should look for an impulsive move up tomorrow.  Of course the alternative bull pattern would have us ending here with a higher low with a 2nd wave and a 3rd wave impulse tomorrow.  Regardless, the market seems to be suggesting a move up tomorrow.  The low made last week is still the level to break for the bears.  Without this scenario, the bull market will definitely still alive and strong.

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th chart shows the possible pattern that could occur..  It's good to keep these patterns in mind and eliminate as we go along.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: DOWN

Corrective Scenario Extended..

Bearish Market Count:

Bullish Market Count:

6 Oct 2014

The 75ma on the daily chart proved to be a good resistance for the SPX.  A trend line support that has lasted since Oct of 2013 is acting as strong support and this also needs to break. The current patterns are still to be determined, but the corrective count is not over if we are looking for higher highs to come.  The bears need to be able to break the lows near the 1925 level. 

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: NA

GOLD UPDATE

SEPT 2014

 

OCT 3 UPDATE:

3 Oct 2014

We have removed the previous days EW analysis as prices moved higher today.  The bullish implications are getting more and more convincing due to the patterns evolving the last week.  The current pattern seems to show a 3-wave decline for a corrective call.  If the Bears were to hold to their conviction that there are more downside to come, next week is the do or die since a bearish scenario can only explain the overlapping decline as sub-waves of a larger 1st wave decline (1-2, I-II, i-ii).  For now I will label it as I see it (as an abc).

Cycle dates come in as 3-6th of Oct. for a bottom.  Next cycle date comes in on the 10 and 21st of Oct.  We do not however know whether these dates are tops or bottoms of a CIT.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: NA

2 Oct 2014

The rally today in the markets have not turned our ST bullish and we are still in oversold territory.  We also made a lower low today piercing one of our support lines and closing above it on an hourly basis confirming our Fib. Support.

I have included an EW forecast, but I should warn that this is just speculation and only based on some cycle dates provided to me as a scenario that takes us to a final low of 1900 - 1890 range.
Based on this pattern, the wave would be a complete 5 wave structure making it a pretty bearish one.

On a bullish note, the closing hourly low today represents a possible ABC pattern from the high made on Sept 19th, of which A=C in length.  A confirmation of this would have our ST turn up and also Break above blue-ii or make a 3 wave pullback without breaking todays low..  It seems there are many requirements but unfortunately that's the only way we would be able to call a run up bullish.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

1 Oct 2014

It is evident that volatility is in play here as our ST has been shifting back and forth for 3 consecutive days.  Seldom does it happen on an ST scale, but not impossible.  We should remain vigilant due to the oversold nature of the market.  This usually means an acceleration of prices.  In this case to the downside.  There isn't much to add to todays blog other than we had anticipated this move for a while now and the probability of more downside is high.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN