31 Mar 2014

Sorry for the late post...

End of the month bar did not confirm a solid reversal pattern due to its continuing positive bar.  We do have an indecision bar but it could go either way.  Last weeks analysis of a higher high is looking good so far.  The uptrend was confirmed today by our ST which also turned up.  There is a sq. angle that is holding prices to shoot for higher highs, so for now we will see if it can breakout of that as well.

MT: DOWN
ST: UP
PA: UP

SQUARE BASED ANGLES

Thought I'd share a long term chart I am following using a SQUARE BASED ANGLE...

Next likely support if we crack below the Main angle that has been holding since 2011 would be on the 1500 zone where the next two Sq. based angles are meeting.  Not shown here is also a 200 week ma that is following the lower up trending angle as well.  It is a simple analysis, and if you believe in angles then 1500 is a high possibility.

Also to note is how a convergence of two Sq. based angles that is lining up within the April - May time-frame. 

 

I have added an analysis by Chris below,  I hope he doesn't mind: 

 

a low of 1500 would be 90*x 6 =1503 (off a high of 1873).

Amending the start price for the Sof 9to 665.75 has 1506 on the SWD, but the Gann Harmonic Ratio from the same price has a ratio top of 1885.

I can't recall what the new contract high price was, say 1887? If so, 1507 is on the NWD.

 

Otherwise good chart. Lots of symmetry.

 

I might do a dymanic time and price analysis for a CIT in April/May. It's long hand so it will take a while. But the Sof9 with 3/6/09 with increments of 2 gives 4/9.

28 Mar 2014

The call for higher prices in the morning came to fruition, but our lower low expectation for Friday did not.  Without the new low, we would be better to expect an ABCDE pattern to be the dominant form.  Our trend is still bearish, and based on our experiences the indicators have a better success rate than our EW analysis.  As we alter our EW count, it doesn't mean we do not have a good count, but time is what stretches the count we know to be right or believe to be a high possibility. 

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

Bullish / Bearish Count...

Likely Count....

 

Scenario from the last few days that is still in play...



27 Mar 2014

Todays price movement fits one of our scenarios.  I do however believe we haven't made a low yet and tomorrow should give us that low.  Todays price action after the morning push down gave us a triangulated pattern and I believe its an ABC for 4th.

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

1min Chart:

60min Chart UPDATED:

Scenarios Still in Play:
Bear 1...

Bull 1...

 

 

Bull 2...

26 Mar 2014

My indicatros tell me we are in a down phase, but my EW tells me we are possibly ending a 4th wave and should rally.  Price action by end of day, at the last hour is suggesting a strong move lower.  Have I possibly count an ABCDE rather than an A- abcde for B - C wave lower to come?  With EW anything is possible, and odds do not favour the trader.  What we do know is that EW can clue us in on some patterns that show if we are corrective or impulsive.  If we can sustain a lower low tomorrow breaking the Mar 14th low then I would eliminate the 4th wave ABCDE.  Now an ABC still exists for still another 4th wave, and as complicated as it sounds its actually just sub division.

This is why it is better to gauge through indicators as the main sentiments.  There are many clues that both scenarios are possible.  The bearish case has us making a head and shoulders pattern and a possible 1820 target.  Can this be our C wave? Or is this the start of a stronger move lower (a possible high made).  Unfortunately, an answer to one opens questions to another.  Lets now look at our indicator, which suggests that we are still on a down-trend. 

MT: DOWN
ST: DOWN
PA: DOWN

There are disadvantages for both use of analysis.  With EWT we could get ahead of ourselves and even count the wrong count.  With the use of the indicator a top or bottom might not be realised.  But if we are to choose which is the better choice of the two I would say there are better odds with the indicator.  So to conclude todays analysis.  We should stay short until we see a possible turn tomorrow.  The manner of the price move tomorrow will also dictate the strength of the CIT, and if we get an impulsive and large move higher tomorrow then it confirms the ABCDE on the EW pattern.  An impulsive down confirms that we are still in a down phase but a large reversal would then confirm an ABC move from the high made in early March.  I am not able to confirm an EW pattern for larger downside potential, but it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Both Bullish scenario at the bottom. 

ADDED: 4:45pm
This is my Best Bear Count...

I am getting ahead of myself here but this is typical behaviour of EW analysis.  We always get ahead of ourselves... lol.  Another BULL count.

STRONG CASE FOR UPSIDE...

Anyone SHORT should consider this pattern for an UPSIDE surprise.

Yesterdays analysis that this might be a 4th wave in progress (abcde) is inching more in that possibility. Acceleration bias is to the upside and might even gap upwards.

1929 AGAIN?

Ever watch PBS documentary on the Great Depression and the 1929 Crash?  If you haven't, here it is. 

So Why am I showing this?  Before the USA became the power we know today the hand off came from the United Kingdom.  Today we see the USA handing the torch the China as the new economy Super Power.  It seems China is now going through the same cycles that lead to the great depression.  High property values, and new generational wealth.  Now we see that China is cracking under pressure and companies are defaulting and credit expansion with no limit and no regulation has probably caused and accelerated this.  This did not stop the bank runs from happening for the USA and today the Chinese are just as scared and concerned about their wellbeing.  The Chinese economy is showing signs of deceleration and looks to me like its about to have a hard landing. 

Just watch the video above and instead of the USA think of it as CHINA and then read the link provided below taken from Zero Hedge.

What A Bank Run In China Looks Like

I have said before.  I do believe that the trigger will come from China.  Whether I am right remains to be determined.  Of course, the USA was pulled out of this depression because of war that occurred years after.  We are now seeing tensions between world powers throwing sanctions at Russia and vice versa...  People rising up and protesting around the world only increases sentiments never seen since the early 1900s.